Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2025

Highlights

  • Average temperatures for the 2025 spring season were 2-4 degrees F above normal for the majority of the region. This is consistent with the temperatures experienced in the spring 2024 season and quite different from the winter 2024-2025 season, which experienced below normal temperatures.
  • In April, Delaware became free of drought for the first time since September 2024.
  • A wet May caused most of the region to experience between 100 and 125 percent of normal precipitation this spring.
  • The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to be an above-normal season with 13-19 named storms, out of which 6-10 could become hurricanes and 3-5 of those could become major hurricanes (defined as category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph). A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

View all climate summaries

This summary focuses on spring weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region. The spring season is defined as the months of March, April, and May. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Figure 1. MARISA Mid-Atlantic Region

A map of the Mid-Atlantic regional highlighting the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

This map shows the “MARISA region”. The lightly shaded area shows the extent of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Severe Weather

The Chesapeake Bay watershed experienced severe weather on March 16.1 Two Enhanced Fujita Scale 1 (EF-1) tornadoes, with estimated peak winds of up to 100 mph, downed hundreds of trees in Elk and Clinton counties in central Pennsylvania.2 It was Elk County's first March tornado since recordkeeping began in 1950.3 These tornadoes were part of a larger outbreak of seven tornadoes in Pennsylvania outside of the bounds of the watershed, likely making it the state's largest March tornado outbreak since March 21, 1976, when eight tornadoes were reported.4 Several areas of damaging straight-line winds of up to 100 mph were also noted in central Pennsylvania.5,6 Additionally, some locations in eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, and southern Delaware saw between 2 and 5 inches of rain, leading to localized flash flooding and road closures.7,8

On April 19, a long-lived severe storm produced significant damage along a path that included western and central Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and south-central Pennsylvania.9 Wind gusts of 70 mph or higher were recorded in multiple locations in Maryland including measurements of 81 mph in Frederick County, 76 mph in Washington County, and 71 mph in Carroll County.10 Storm reports noted damaged roofs, snapped power poles, impassable roads, and downed trees on cars and homes.11,12,13 Power outages were widespread and lasted a few days in the hardest hit areas.14 Several people, including six at a campground in central Maryland, suffered storm-related injuries.15,16

A line of severe thunderstorms left a path of damage across Pennsylvania on April 29.17 Measured wind gusts in central Pennsylvania reached 66 mph, with an estimated wind gust of up to 120 mph in Cambria County that toppled a cell phone tower.18 The winds downed numerous trees, some of which damaged houses and vehicles.19 Other damage included downed power lines, snapped power poles, and roofs blown off barns.20 Tens of thousands of customers lost power, some for several days.21,22 There were at least four storm-related deaths across the state, including one in central Pennsylvania.23 Severe storms also downed trees and power lines in central New York on the same day.24

From May 13 to 14, southern parts of the watershed saw up to six inches of rain that resulted in flooding.25 An area from central Virginia into eastern West Virginia and western Maryland into south-central Pennsylvania was hit particularly hard by flash flooding as much of the rain fell in just a few hours.26 Flash Flood Emergencies, signifying a dangerous, life-threatening situation, were issued by the National Weather Service for portions of Allegany County in western Maryland and Greene and Madison counties in central Virginia.27,28,29 There were numerous evacuations, water rescues, road closures, and flooded buildings in the hardest hit areas.30,31,32 Around 200 students and staff were evacuated by boat from schools in western Maryland, with the nearby Georges Creek reaching its second-highest level since records began in the 1930s.33,34 Several additional waterways reached one of their 10 highest levels on record, as well.35 Flooding also occurred downstream of these areas, including along the Potomac River which was impacted by sewage overflows and significant debris.36 The Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, which parallels the Potomac, suffered extensive damage.37 Damage or closures were also noted at other parks and recreational areas in the region such as Shenandoah National Park in central Virginia and Raystown Lake in south-central Pennsylvania.38,39 Other flooding impacts included disrupted rail service.40 There were at least two flood-related fatalities in Virginia.41,42

Figure 2. Flooding on the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal, May 15, 2025.

Flooding on the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal towpath at mile 9.5 on May 15, 2025. Photo by Chesapeake & Ohio Canal National Historical Park

SOURCE: Photo by Chesapeake & Ohio Canal National Historical Park

May 16 brought severe weather to southern half of the watershed.43 A tornado touched down in the City of Baltimore, Mayland, and moved into neighboring Baltimore County, causing significant damage to trees, several warehouses, and roofs.44 A second tornado traveled over 11 miles from eastern Maryland into southern Delaware, with damage mostly to trees.45 Non-tornadic wind gusts also caused damage and contributed to two fatalities in northern Virginia.46 Large hail was reported including a 2.50-inch (tennis ball-sized) hailstone in Baltimore County, Maryland, and a 2.00-inch (lime-sized) hailstone in Dorchester County, Maryland.47

Drought

In a continuation from the end of the winter season, the U.S. Drought Monitor from March 4 showed drought conditions48 in eastern West Virginia, northern/eastern Virginia, most of Maryland, all of Delaware, and parts of central Pennsylvania.49 Abnormal dryness surrounded these areas of drought.50 Many locations saw below-normal precipitation in March, causing drought and abnormal dryness to expand to cover much of the watershed.51 The dry conditions prompted officials in Washington County, Maryland, and several municipalities in central Pennsylvania to issue burn bans.52,53 Mandatory water restrictions remained in place for some Pennsylvania communities.54,55 However, locally wet weather chipped away at drought and abnormal dryness in portions of eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, and Delaware.56

During the month of April, some areas surrounding the Chesapeake Bay such as eastern Virginia and southern and eastern Maryland saw beneficial precipitation that allowed drought and abnormal dryness to shrink in coverage.57 In addition, Delaware became free of drought for the first time since early September 2024.58 Abnormal dryness also eased in parts of central Virginia and central Pennsylvania.59

Despite this, dryness persisted in much of the rest of the watershed in April, with drought expanding in eastern West Virginia and northern and western Virginia.60 At times, during the month of April, parts of the watershed experienced below-normal streamflow and groundwater levels.61,62

Exceptionally wet weather in May led to significant improvements in drought and abnormal dryness across much of the watershed.63 By month's end, severe drought was removed from West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, and was confined to a small portion of central Maryland.64 Coverage of moderate drought and abnormal dryness also improved across the watershed.65 For example, as of April 29, 62 percent of Virginia was in drought or abnormally dry, but by May 27, only 14 percent of the state was experiencing drought or abnormal dryness.66 The May precipitation improved reservoir levels in places like central Pennsylvania and central Virginia.67,68

Figure 3. U.S. Drought Monitor for the Mid-Atlantic: March–May 2025

Animation showing areas of drought in the Mid-Atlantic region from March to May 2025. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor. Figure by U.S. Drought Monitor

SOURCE: U.S. Drought Monitor

Wildfire

Dry conditions contributed to several wildfires in the watershed, including two in late April in Cumberland County, Pennsylvania, that charred over 2,700 acres and led to evacuations and road closures.69,70 A large wildfire burning in New Jersey in late April sent smoke into parts of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, producing hazy skies and reducing air quality.71,72

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 4 shows the spring 2025 average temperature compared with the climate normal—i.e., the average seasonal temperature from 1991 to 2020.73 The figure shows that the entire region experienced above normal temperatures between March-May, 2025. Most of the watershed experienced temperatures that were 2-4 degrees above normal, with a few areas experiencing temperatures that were a few degrees warmer or cooler. This is consistent with the temperatures experienced in the spring 2024 season and quite different from the winter 2024-2025 season, which experienced below normal temperatures.

Figure 4. March 1–May 31, 2025, Departure from Normal Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)

A heat map showing departure from normal temperature in the Mid-Atlantic region from March, 2025 to May, 2025. Figure by Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Normal temperature is based on the spring season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Shades of red indicate above-normal temperatures. Shades of blue indicate below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for spring compared with the same station's spring 2025 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

As shown in Table 1, 13 sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced average spring temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest on record. This was largely due to above average temperatures across the region in March and April.

Table 1. Spring Season (March–May) Temperature Rankings

Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Norfolk, VA 63.3 59.7 2
Washington National, DC 61.0 57.7 2
Baltimore, MD 58.3 54.6 4
Dulles Airport, VA 57.7 54.4 4
Martinsburg, WV 56.1 53.0 6
Charlottesville, VA 59.0 57.9 9
Harrisburg, PA 55.1 52.8 9
Lynchburg, VA 59.0 55.6 9
Richmond, VA 60.6 57.9 9
Williamsport, PA 53.1 49.9 9
Salisbury, MD 57.1 54.7 10
Binghampton, NY 46.7 44.4 11
Scranton, PA 50.9 49.8 15

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the spring season, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for spring temperatures.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

On March 30, Dulles Airport, Virginia experienced its warmest low temperature for March with a low of 66 degrees F, while Washington, D.C., at National Airport, tied its third warmest low for March with a low of 65 degrees F.74 The next day, on March 31, Baltimore, Maryland, tied its seventh-warmest March temperature with a high of 86 degrees F.75

On April 19, Dulles Airport, Virginia, tied its second-warmest low temperature for April with a low of 67 degrees F.76

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and temperatures is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Monthly Temperature Rankings

March Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 50.8 44.2 2
Washington National, DC 54.3 47.6 4
Baltimore, MD 50.5 44.3 6
Martinsburg, WV 49.2 42.8 6
Norfolk, VA 55.6 50.7 6
Binghamton, NY 39.2 32.3 7
Williamsport, PA 45.2 38.7 9
Scranton, PA 43.5 38.3 10
Harrisburg, PA 47.1 41.8 11
Charlottesville, VA 52.1 48.7 12
Richmond, VA 53.2 48.4 12
Lynchburg, VA 51.8 46.4 16
Salisbury, MD 49.5 45.3 17
April Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Norfolk, VA 64.4 60.1 3
Lynchburg, VA 60.7 56.1 5
Washington National, DC 61.7 58.2 6
Dulles Airport, VA 57.7 55.0 7
Richmond, VA 61.5 58.4 9
Baltimore, MD 58.1 55.0 12
Martinsburg, WV 56.0 53.6 13
Williamsport, PA 52.9 50.3 16
Harrisburg, PA 55.0 53.2 18
Charlottesville, VA 59.8 58.5 20
May Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Norfolk, VA 69.8 68.3 18
Dulles Airport, VA 64.5 64.0 20

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the indicated month, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for that month's temperatures.

Precipitation

Figure 5 shows how the total precipitation for March 1 through May 31, 2025, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average spring precipitation from 1991–2020. This figure shows that the majority of the region experienced above normal precipitation, with most of the region seeing between 100 and 125 percent of normal precipitation. This was due to a very wet May for much of the region. A few areas, particularly in West Virginia and Virginia, saw less than normal precipitation (75-100 percent), while one area east of Richmond, Virginia, saw 150-200 percent of normal precipitation.

Figure 5. March 1–May 31, 2025, Percentage of Normal Precipitation

A heat map showing departure from normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region for March to May, 2025. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025. Figure by the Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Blue shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for spring compared with the same station's spring 2025 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_webservices.html.

Spring 2025 ranked among the top 20 wettest spring seasons on record for seven sites in the watershed (Table 3). This was caused by significant rainfall during the month of May.

Table 3. Spring Season (March–May) Precipitation Rankings (wettest)

Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY 12.14 10.46 12
Harrisburg, PA 14.63 11.08 12
Scranton, PA 12.42 9.29 12
Salisbury, MD 14.00 11.32 14
Martinsburg, WV 13.79 10.83 15
Richmond, NY 14.36 11.18 17
Williamsport, PA 13.74 10.61 19

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

A few sites saw top 20 driest months of March and April. However, 11 sites saw one of their wettest months of May on record, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, had its wettest May on record. On May 13, Baltimore, Maryland, received 2.28 inches of precipitation, which made it the site's fifth wettest May day.77 The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of precipitation are shown in Table 4.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

Table 4. Monthly Precipitation Rankings

March Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Lynchburg, VA 0.72 3.76 2
Dulles Airport, VA 1.42 3.50 6
Charlottesville, VA 0.84 3.54 7
Norfolk, VA 1.65 3.69 11
April Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Dulles Airport, VA 2.01 3.47 14
Charlottesville, VA 1.60 3.17 17
May Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Harrisburg, PA 10.02 3.83 1
Martinsburg, WV 9.33 4.05 2
Scranton, PA 7.58 3.26 3
Binghamton, NY 6.59 3.78 4
Lynchburg, VA 7.87 3.98 7
Williamsport, PA 7.18 3.86 7
Baltimore, MD 6.85 3.85 9
Washington National, DC 7.73 3.94 9
Charlottesville, VA 7.02 4.17 10
Dulles Airport, VA 6.07 4.72 13
Richmond, VA 6.50 4.00 15

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

The season’s snowfall rankings are shown in Table 5. No station experienced snowfall ranking in the top 20 snowiest springs on record. Meanwhile, Binghamton, New York, recorded its seventh least snowy spring season on record.

Table 5. Spring Season (March–May) Snowfall Rankings

Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
Binghamton, NY 6.3 20.3 7
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (snowiest)
No sites experienced snowfall that ranked in their top 20 snowiest springs on record.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

March 2025 tied multiple other years as the least snowy March on record for multiple sites (Table 6). It was only the fifth March on record with no snow in sites such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Dulles Airport, Virginia, which have records that go back to 1889 and 1963 respectively.78 There was little, if any snowfall during May, which is common for the Chesapeake Bay watershed.79

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of snowfall are shown in Table 6.

Table 6. Monthly Snowfall Rankings

March Snowfall Rankings
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
Dulles Airport, VA 0.0 3.9 1
Harrisburg, PA 0.0 5.6 1
Lynchburg, VA 0.0 2.4 1(tied with 25 other years)
Richmond, VA 0.0 1.1 1(tied with 27 other years)
Salisbury, MD 0.0 1.0 1 (tied with 10 other years)
Washington National, DC 0.0 2.0 1(tied with 7 other years)
Williamsport, PA Trace 7.3 1(tied with 13 other years)
Baltimore, MD Trace 2.8 8
Scranton, PA 0.1 10.1 8
Binghamton, NY 5.8 16.4 16
April Snowfall Rankings
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
Binghamton, NY 0.5 3.8 14
May Snowfall Rankings
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
No sites experienced snowfall in May, which is typical.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Summer 2025 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of May 15, 2025, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 50 to 60 percent chance of above normal temperatures for most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, all of Delaware and Washington, D.C., and eastern Virginia for the summer 2025 season.80 The rest of the region is forecasted to have a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures.81 The precipitation forecast shows that southeastern Pennsylvania, central and eastern Virginia, most of Maryland, and all of Washington, D.C. and Delaware have a 40 to 50 percent chance of wetter than normal conditions for the same period.82 The rest of the watershed has a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation for June, July, and August.83

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of May 31, 2025, the Outlook indicates that drought conditions will generally improve in the Mid-Atlantic region during the summer season.84 The Outlook predicts that there will be no drought in the watershed except a small area in northern Maryland, where drought conditions are expected to remain but improve.85

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has not active advisories as of May 8, 2025.86 ENSO-neutral conditions started in March and persisted through April, and are expected to continue through the summer season (74% chance).87 ENSO-neutral means that neither La Niña nor El Niño conditions are present, and as a result long-term forecasts will be less predictable.88

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.89 However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of April 3, 2025, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted an above average Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms and nine hurricanes (4 major hurricanes) and a 26 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. east coast.90 NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), as of May 22, 2025, is forecasting a 60 percent chance of an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.91 NOAA is forecasting, with 70 percent confidence, 13-19 named storms, out of which 6-10 could become hurricanes and 3-5 of those could become major hurricanes, which means that they would be category 3, 4, or 5 and have winds of at least 11l mph.92 A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.93

Part 4: A Primer on the Heat Index

Overview

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States, contributing to more excess deaths94 than hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods combined.95 As scientific understandings of heat risk and impact on human health have evolved, the development of more precise heat measurement metrics has become increasingly vital. One such metric is the heat index.

The heat index serves as a composite metric that integrates ambient temperature and humidity to provide a more accurate, "real feel" estimate of the human thermal experience. It was designed to account for the role of humidity in the body's ability to cool itself, primarily achieved through the evaporation of sweat. This cooling process becomes less efficient as moisture content in the air (humidity) rises. Consequently, the heat index aims to measure the combined impacts of air temperature and moisture, offering a more comprehensive understanding of heat stress than air temperature alone.96,97

The heat index is used by local and state governments, emergency management organizations, and public health agencies to inform extreme heat preparation and planning, issue heat advisories, and communicate to the public. This section explores the heat index calculation and historical development, examines how the heat index functions in practice through a case study of Washington, D.C., and highlights its strengths and limitations in real-world applications. It concludes by situating the discussion within the broader context of climate change, featuring an interactive graph projecting the number of days at or above 95 degrees F in Washington, D.C. under low, medium, and high emissions scenarios.

The Heat Index Equation and Classifications

The heat index equation was developed by the U.S. National Weather Service based on prior work conducted by R.G. Steadman.98 It utilizes relative humidity (RH), expressed as a percentage, rather than absolute humidity. Relative humidity indicates the amount of moisture content in the air at a specific temperature relative to the maximum amount of moisture content that air can hold at that temperature.99 In contrast, absolute humidity measures the actual amount of water vapor in the air and is expressed by grams of water vapor/cubic meter volume of air.100 The heat index is communicated as an adjustment of ambient air temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) based on RH levels. For example, an air temperature of 92 degrees F at 60% RH results in a heat index or "real feel" value of 105 degrees F.

Figure 6. Heat Index Chart

SOURCE: https://www.weather.gov/media/unr/heatindex.pdf

National Weather Service Heat Index Chart

The chart represents the heat index based on relative humidity (%) and temperature (°F) and categorizes the likelihood of heat disorders with prolonged exposure and/or strenuous activity into four risk levels: Caution, Extreme Caution, Danger, and Extreme Danger. The Caution level covers temperatures ranging from 80 to 88 degrees F, through 100% humidity. Extreme Caution covers temperatures 90 to 96 degrees F through 100% humidity. Danger covers temperatures 98 to 106 degrees F through 100% humidity. Extreme danger covers temperatures 108 to 110 degrees F through 100% humidity.

Relative Humidity (%) 80°F 82°F 84°F 86°F 88°F 90°F 92°F 94°F 96°F 98°F 100°F 102°F 104°F 106°F 108°F 110°F
40% 80 81 83 85 88 91 94 97 101 105 109 114 119 124 130 136
45% 80 82 84 87 89 93 96 100 104 109 114 119 124 130 137
50% 81 83 85 88 91 95 99 103 108 113 118 124 131 137
55% 81 84 86 89 93 97 101 106 112 117 124 130 137
60% 82 84 88 91 95 100 105 110 116 123 129 137
65% 82 85 89 93 98 103 108 114 121 128 136
70% 83 86 90 95 100 105 112 119 126 134
75% 84 88 92 97 102 109 116 124 132
80% 84 89 94 100 106 113 121 129
85% 85 91 97 102 112 123 132
90% 86 91 98 105 113 122 131
95% 86 93 100 108 117 127
100% 87 95 103 112 121 132

The National Weather Service (NWS) heat index classifications—Caution, Extreme Caution, Danger, and Extreme Danger—reflect escalating health risks with heat and physical activity: from possible fatigue (Caution), potential heat stroke (Extreme Caution), likely heat cramps or exhaustion without activity (Danger) and a high likelihood of heat stroke even without exertion (Extreme Danger). For more information on the heat index classifications of Caution, Extreme Caution, Danger, and Extreme Danger, see the Fall 2023 Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts and Summary.

Case Study: Washington, D.C.

Washington, D.C. uses the heat index as a way to activate heat risk reduction measures that are laid out in its Heat Emergency Plan. The District activates its Heat Emergency Plan during the Extreme Caution heat index classification and prior to the "Danger" classification. Specifically, the Plan is activated at 95 degrees F heat index or air temperature.101 This means that on a day with air temperature high of 90 F with 45% RH or less, DC's Heat Emergency Plan would not be activated; however, it would be triggered at 90 degrees F with 50% RH. A number of actions are taken when the heat emergency plan is activated, one of which includes opening the city's cooling centers to provide refuge for residents to recover or find relief from the heat.102 Washington, D.C. also uses the heat index to set and communicate thresholds for heat advisories, excessive heat watches, and excessive heat warnings to the public (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Washington, D.C. Extreme Heat Alerts

Heat advisory, watch, and warning messages:

  1. Heat advisory: It's going to feel like it's 105 to 109 degrees outside within the next 24 hours. Minimize time outside, stay well hydrated, and check out our tips on how to stay safe.
  2. Excessive heat watch: It's possible that it will feel like it's above 110 degrees outside within the next 48 hours. Prepare for extreme heat.
  3. Excessive heat warning: It's going to feel like it's above 110 degrees outside within the next 24 hours. Minimize time outside, stay well hydrated, and check out our tips on how to stay safe.

Source: Ready DC103

It is important to highlight that, in addition to the use of the heat index as a trigger for emergency actions, D.C. also employs an absolute threshold of 95 degrees F for air temperature to activate the District's heat emergency plan. As previously discussed, if the District used a threshold of 95 degrees F air temperature alone, emergency actions would be activated potentially less frequently and at significantly higher "real feel" temperatures—increasing the likelihood of heat disorders with prolonged exposure and/or strenuous activity for residents.104 The inclusion of the 95 degrees F air temperature as an additional threshold, however, ensures that the District's heat risk management strategies are operational even during periods of high air temperature but lower RH. For example, at 95 degrees F air temperature and 20% RH, the heat index is 93 degrees F, which falls into the "Extreme Caution" category;105 thus, by having a temperature-based second threshold of 95 degrees F, the District would still activate its heat emergency plans.

Data Challenges and Limitations

Despite its importance and advantage over air temperature alone, there are data limitations and challenges to the use and communication of the heat index. For instance, heat index charts are based on real-feel temperatures in the shade.106 This is particularly significant for outdoor workers, as exposure to direct sunlight can raise heat index values by up to 15 degrees F.107 Furthermore, as a scientific measurement based on air temperature and humidity, the heat index does not take into account personal factors such as age, health, and socioeconomic status that can create discrepancies in heat risk. Thus, the heat index is most effective when used in conjunction with education about heat risk and the varied impacts of heat on human health. Other heat measurements address some heat index limitations but pose their own challenges. The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), for instance, measures heat stress in direct sunlight and is calculated from temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and solar radiation.108 Nevertheless, the heat index is often used because it is relatively easy to understand and communicate to the public, whereas the WBGT requires additional interpretation from trained specialists.109

Although there have been advances in heat and health research, more research is needed to better understand the relationship between air temperatures, humidity, and health outcomes.110 This understanding is crucial for establishing standardized temperature and heat index thresholds for effective heat risk management. Currently, there is no unified definition of an extreme heat event shared by state agencies and jurisdictions,111 nor are there shared temperature and heat index thresholds consistently used to activate heat emergency plans—even within individual states.112 Therefore, although the heat index remains a valuable and life-saving tool when compared to air temperature alone, further investigation is essential to improve and coordinate extreme heat planning and management.

A deeper understanding of these relationships is not only crucial for the present; given rising temperatures due to climate change, this information is necessary for developing climate adaptation strategies and data-informed decision making regarding future heat risk. As climate change increases the duration, severity, and frequency of heatwaves, the heat index becomes an even more vital tool. However, while projection of air temperatures at local scales has become increasingly feasible with advancements in climate modeling,113 projecting humidity—and thus the heat index—remains a more complex and still-emerging modeling approach. While downscaling temperature projections requires only temperature data, maximum relative humidity calculations require specific humidity, minimum temperature, and surface pressure.114 Recent work has also suggested that the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) do not capture some historical humidity trends, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.115 Downscaled humidity projections, particularly in these geographies, should therefore be considered an estimation.116

Figure 8 illustrates the projected number of days in which Washington, D.C. is expected to experience maximum temperatures at or above 95F under under medium (SSP2-4.5), high (SSP3-7.0), and very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios. Due to current challenges in humidity projection, the analysis presented here is based solely on ambient temperature. Given Washington, D.C.'s relatively high summer humidity levels, the graph likely reflects a conservative estimate of the minimum number of days that the District's heat emergency plan would be activated under each climate scenario. Despite this limitation, the data remains valuable for understanding the magnitude of rising temperatures and the necessary heat risk management and mitigation strategies required to safeguard human health.

Figure 8. Future Projected Days at or Above 95F in Washington, D.C.

This figure is a line graph showing projected outcomes across three emissions scenarios from 2030 to 2099. The y-axis represents numerical values from 0 to 90 in increments of 10, and the x-axis represents years, starting at 2030 and ending at 2099.

  • Very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5): Represented by a red line, this scenario shows a consistent increase over time, reaching nearly 90 by 2099.
  • High emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0): Represented by an orange line, this scenario demonstrates an upward trend similar to the very high scenario but ends slightly lower at around 70 by 2099.
  • Medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5): Represented by a yellow line, this scenario shows a slower and more stabilized growth, reaching approximately 45 by 2099.

The graph suggests that higher emissions scenarios lead to greater increases in the measured outcome, while medium emissions scenarios result in less drastic growth over the same time period.

SOURCE: Localized Constructed Analogs 2 (LOCA2)

Technical Note: Localized Constructed Analogs 2 (LOCA2) is a downscaled climate data product available at 6 km resolution over the continental United States.117 The LOCA2 dataset includes 27 of the climate models available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) archive, for three future climate scenarios: an intermediate-emissions future (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5), a high-emissions future (SSP 3-7.0) and a very high-emissions future (SSP 5-8.5).118 For this graph, we used LOCA2 data over Washington, DC from 2025-2099. Access LOCA2 datasets and learn more about the methodology. - https://loca.ucsd.edu/

For more information on how to prepare and stay safe before, during, and after extreme heat, visit the American Red Cross Extreme Heat Safety information site.

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The MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook is a quarterly series produced by the Mid-Atlantic Climate Adaptation Partnership team (MARISA), a collaboration funded by NOAA through the RAND and researchers at Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Morgan State University, and Carnegie Mellon University. This series is specifically designed to support policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic by serving as a data and information resource that is tailored to the region. It draws information from regional climate centers, news and weather information, and regional-specific climate data sets. Projections of weather and climate variability and change in the Mid-Atlantic region come from the best available scientific information. For any questions or comments, please contact Krista Romita Grocholski at Krista_Romita_Grocholski@rand.org.

This edition of the MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook was authored by Lena Easton-Calabria (RAND), Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND), Samantha Borisoff (Cornell University), Jessica Spaccio (Cornell University), Michelle E. Miro (RAND), and Arthur T. DeGaetano (Cornell University).

Citation: Easton-Calabria, Lena, Krista Romita Grocholski, Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Michelle E. Miro, and Arthur T. DeGaetano, Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2025. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025.

Footnotes

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  2. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/250316_rpts.html Return to text ⤴

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