Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2024–2025

Highlights

  • Nearly the entire region experienced below normal temperatures this winter, primarily due to extremely cold temperatures in January. This is the first cooler-than-normal season since summer 2023 and it is only the second cooler-than-normal season since the start of the MARISA Climate Summary series in 2018.
  • The majority of the region experienced a less than normal amount of precipitation; however a swath of southern West Virginia across central Virginia saw above normal precipitation.
  • The northern portion of the region saw less than normal amounts of snowfall, while a band spanning across West Virginia through central and southeastern Virginia saw above normal amounts of snowfall, anywhere from 100–200 percent of normal.
  • Several winter storms impacted the region throughout January and February, making this winter one of the most active for winter weather events since the 2021-2022 season.

View all climate summaries

This summary focuses on winter weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region. The winter season is defined as the months of December, January, and February. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Figure 1. MARISA Mid-Atlantic Region

A map of the Mid-Atlantic regional highlighting the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

This map shows the “MARISA region”. The lightly shaded area shows the extent of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Winter Weather

Several winter storms moved through the Chesapeake Bay watershed in January. One of the more notable events occurred from January 5 to 6 when a complex storm system dropped snow, sleet, and freezing rain on southern parts of the watershed.1,2 The greatest snow totals from this storm, 6 to 12 inches, were found in eastern West Virginia, northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware.3,4 Dulles Airport, Virginia, and Reagan National Airport in Washington, D.C., had their snowiest day in six years with 7.2 inches and 6.0 inches, respectively.5 Storm impacts included school closures, transportation issues including cancelled flights, and power outages, with about half of Cumberland County, Virginia, losing power.6,7 The Baltimore/Washington and Wakefield, Virginia, National Weather Service offices both noted that this was the most impactful winter weather event for their regions since January 2022.8,9

There were frequent storms throughout the month of February, many of which brought a mix of precipitation types to the region.

From February 5 to 7, rain, freezing rain, snow, and sleet were reported in the watershed.10,11 Many areas saw a coating of ice, resulting in slick roads, school closures, and power outages.12,13 The greatest ice accretion from freezing rain was 0.25 and 0.50 inches in areas such as eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and northwestern Virginia, where storm reports noted downed trees and power lines.14,15

A storm from February 11 to 12 brought snow and ice to the watershed, with the greatest accumulations and impacts seen in Virginia and Maryland.16,17 Snowfall totals maxed out around 12 inches, which led to travel issues and vehicle crashes.18,19,20 Additionally, ice accretion in parts of central Virginia downed trees and powerlines.21 The National Weather Service noted that at the storm's peak over 200,000 customers in Virginia had lost power, some for as many as five days.22

Another multi-hazard storm hit the region from February 15-17. Precipitation totals exceeded 2 inches in parts of Virginia, with most falling as rain.23 Lynchburg, Virginia, recorded 2.44 inches of rain on February 15, making it the site's second-wettest February day since records began in 1893.24 Parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and central New York saw ice accumulation of up to 0.50 inches, while multiple locations in the watershed registered at least some snowfall.25,26 In western Maryland, straight-line winds associated with a thunderstorm caused minor damage.27 Strong winds, with the highest gusts ranging from 50 to 75 mph, downed trees and power lines.28,29 Blizzard warnings were issued for higher elevations in eastern West Virginia and western Maryland.30

From February 19 to 20 southern portions of the watershed saw snow, with the greatest totals of around 12 inches focused in southeastern Virginia.31 Norfolk picked up 10.2 inches of snow on February 19, making it the site's fourth-snowiest February day since records began in 1890.32 Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour, along with gusty winds, dropped visibilities to a quarter of a mile at times.33

Figure 2. Heavy Snow in Washington D.C. on January 6, 2025.

A woman goes skiing with her dog near the U.S. Capitol after a winter storm, January 6, 2025. Photo by Marko Djurica / Reuters. Photo by Marko Djurica/Reuters

SOURCE: Marko Djurica / Reuters

Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor from December 3 showed all of Maryland experiencing drought conditions, including extreme drought in the eastern parts of the state.34 Elsewhere in the region, drought covered 89 percent of Virginia, as well as parts of Pennsylvania.35,36 Timely precipitation during December chipped away at drought conditions in the watershed.37 By the time of the Drought Monitor update on January 7, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that extreme drought eased in Maryland and drought coverage shrank to 33 percent in Virginia.38,39 However, streamflow and groundwater levels in multiple areas remained below normal during the month.40,41,42 Prolonged dryness in Dorchester County, Maryland, was favorable for thinning trees in the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge.43

During January, below-normal precipitation, reduced streamflow, groundwater levels, and soil moisture led to deteriorating conditions in parts of the watershed.44,45 Severe drought expanded to cover the southern end of the Delmarva Peninsula, while moderate drought spread in Virginia and eastern West Virginia.46 Meanwhile, abnormal dryness expanded in an area from western Virginia north to central New York.47 At the end of the month, drought persisted across 95 percent of Maryland and covered 55 percent of Virginia.48,49 Mandatory water restrictions remained in place for parts of central Pennsylvania as dry conditions persisted.50

Frequent storms in February chipped away at drought and abnormal dryness in the region. Severe drought was erased from Virginia and contracted in Maryland and Delaware, while moderate drought and abnormal dryness were reduced in an area from Virginia to central Pennsylvania.51 As of February 25, only seven percent of Virginia was in drought.52 Meanwhile 91 percent of Maryland was in drought, but the coverage of severe drought dropped to 30 percent, a significant improvement compared with nearly 60 percent coverage at the end of January.53,54

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 3 shows the winter 2024–2025 average temperature compared with the climate normal—i.e., the average seasonal temperature from 1991 to 2020.55 The figure shows that nearly the entire region experienced below normal temperatures this winter, primarily due to extremely cold temperatures in January. Most of the region experienced temperatures that were 0-2 degrees F below normal, with a few locations experiencing temperatures that were 2-4 degrees below normal. Only the northernmost portion of the watershed experienced warmer than normal temperatures. This is the first cooler than normal season since the summer 2023 season, which was 0-1 degrees below normal, and it is only the second cooler-than-normal season since the start of the MARISA Climate Summary series in 2018.

Figure 3. December 1, 2024 – February 28, 2025, Departure from Normal Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)

A heat map showing departure from normal temperature in the Mid-Atlantic region from December, 2024 to February, 2025. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Normal temperature is based on the winter season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Shades of red indicate above-normal temperatures. Shades of blue indicate below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for fall compared with the same station's winter 2024–2025 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

As shown in Table 1, no sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced average winter temperatures that ranked among its top 20 warmest/coolest on record.

Table 1. Winter Season (December–February) Temperature Rankings

Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)

No sites experienced winter temperatures that ranked in the top 20 warmest or coldest winters on record.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the spring season, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for spring temperatures.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

An Arctic air outbreak from January 20 to 22 allowed low temperatures to drop into the single digits or below 0 degrees Fahrenheit (F) in much of the watershed, producing some of the coldest temperatures in a decade for a few locations.56,57 For example, on January 22, a low of -9 degrees F at Scranton, Pennsylvania, was the site's coldest temperature since January 1994.58 Wind chills plummeted as low as -25 degrees F in some locations.59,60 The cold weather caused school delays, led to an uptick in heating service calls, and contributed to a buildup of ice in parts of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries.61,62,63 Additionally, there were two cold-related deaths and an increased number of cold-related emergency room and urgent care visits in Maryland.64

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and temperatures are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Monthly Temperature Rankings

December Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)

No sites experienced December temperatures that ranked in the top 20 warmest or coldest Decembers on record.
January Temperature Rankings (coldest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (coldest)
Salisbury, MD 30.4 36.8 12
Charlottesville, VA 32.2 38.4 15
Lynchburg, VA 31.9 35.9 15
Richmond, VA 35.5 38.3 20
February Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)

No sites experienced February temperatures that ranked in the top 20 warmest or coldest Februarys on record.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the indicated month, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for that month's temperatures.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for December 1, 2024, through February 28, 2025, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average winter precipitation from 1991–2020. The majority of the region experienced less than normal amount of precipitation, with central Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, and the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia seeing 50–75 percent of normal precipitation. A swath of southern West Virginia across central Virginia saw above normal precipitation (100–125 percent of normal) and southern West Virginia saw over 125 percent of normal precipitation.

Figure 4. December 1, 2024 – February 28, 2025, Percentage of Normal Precipitation

A heat map showing departure from normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region for December, 2024 to February, 2025. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Blue shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for winter compared with the same station's winter 2024 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Winter 2024–2025 ranked among the top 20 driest or wettest winter seasons on record for three sites in the watershed (Table 3). Both Martinsburg, West Virginia, and Baltimore, Maryland, experienced wins that ranked amongst their driest 20 seasons on record. In contrast, Lynchburg, Virginia, experienced its 13th wettest winter season on record.

Table 3. Winter Season (December–February) Precipitation Rankings (driest)

Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank
Martinsburg, WV 4.91 7.74 10 driest
Baltimore, MD 6.74 9.69 19 driest
Lynchburg, VA 13.41 9.87 13 wettest

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

Scranton, Pennsylvania had its 10th wettest December day with 1.56 inches of precipitation on December 11.65 This December was the 17th wettest on record for Binghamton, New York.66

This January ranked among the 20 driest Januarys on record for multiple sites throughout the watershed including Dulles Airport, Virginia; Baltimore, Maryland; Martinsburg, West Virginia; and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.67,68 With just 0.63 inches of precipitation, Williamsport, Pennsylvania, experienced its 2nd driest January on record. Martinsburg, West Virginia, had its 4th driest January on record with 0.50 inches of precipitation, and Dulles Airport, Virginia, its 17th driest January on record with 2.00 inches of precipitation. This February ranked among the seven wettest Februarys on record for Lynchburg, Norfolk, and Richmond, Virginia.69

Table 4. Monthly Precipitation Rankings

December Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY 3.74 3.08 17
January Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Williamsport, PA 0.63 2.96 2
Martinsburg, WV 0.50 2.60 4
Harrisburg, PA 0.94 3.03 5
Scranton, PA 0.96 2.59 11
Baltimore, MD 1.59 3.08 16
Dulles Airport, VA 2.00 2.94 17
Norfolk, VA 1.64 3.41 18
Salisbury, MD 2.21 3.46 18
February Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Lynchburg, VA 5.92 2.91 4
Norfolk, VA 5.91 2.90 7
Richmond, VA 5.43 2.61 7

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Snowfall

Figure 5 shows how the total snowfall for December 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average winter snowfall from 1991–2020. A range of snowfall conditions occurred during the winter season. The northern portion of the region from New York through northern Virginia experienced less than normal snowfall. A band spanning across West Virginia through central and southeastern Virginia saw above normal amounts of snowfall, anywhere from 100-200 percent of normal. The southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula and the southeastern most portion of Virginia received over 200 percent of their average snowfall for the winter season. Despite the above normal snowfall amounts, much of the Delmarva Peninsula saw less than normal overall precipitation amounts this winter (Figure 4). This is because areas such as Salisbury, Maryland on the Eastern Shore or Norfolk in southern Virginia normally only see a few inches of snowfall in a winter season, so the percentages can become quite high when there is a more substantial winter storm despite there not necessarily being all that much more precipitation overall (e.g. Tables 5 and 6).

Figure 5. December 1, 2024 – January 30, 2025, Percentage of Normal Snowfall

A heat map showing departure from normal snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic region for December, 2024 to February, 2025. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal snowfall is based on snowfall data from 1991–2020. Oranges indicate below-average seasonal snowfall, and purples indicate above-normal seasonal snowfall. Percentages of normal seasonal snowfall are based on station-specific normal seasonal snowfall for the winter compared to the same station's winter 2024–2025 seasonal snowfall. Station-level percentages of normal are then spatially interpolated to form the figure above.

Winter 2024–2025 ranked among the 20 snowiest winters for two sites: Salisbury, Maryland, with its seventh snowiest winter and Norfolk, Virginia, with its 12th snowiest winter (Table 5).

Table 5. Winter Season (December–February) Snowfall Rankings

Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (snowiest)
Salisbury, MD 21.3 6.8 7
Norfolk, VA 16.8 5.8 12

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

There was no measurable snow at several sites during the month of December, which is somewhat common for many sites, which is why the rankings are tied with many other years' rankings. This January ranked among the 20 snowiest months of January on record for Salisbury, Maryland, and Dulles Airport, Virginia.70 This February also ranked among the snowiest Februarys on record for Salisbury, Maryland, along with Norfolk, Virginia.71

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of snowfall are shown in Table 6.

Table 6. Monthly Snowfall Rankings

December Snowfall Rankings
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (snowiest)

No sites received snowfall that ranked in the top 20 snowiest Decembers on record.
December Snowfall Rankings (least snowy)
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
Norfolk, VA 0.0 1.1 1 (tied with 32 other years)
Richmond, VA 0.0 1.8 1 (tied with 19 other years)
Salisbury, MD Trace 0.9 11 (tied with 41 other years)
Lynchburg, VA Trace 2.0 20 (tied with 31 other years)
January Snowfall Rankings (snowiest)
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (snowiest)
Salisbury, MD 11.3 2.5 10
Dulles Airport, VA 10.5 6.9 14
February Snowfall Rankings (snowiest)
Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
Norfolk, VA 11.1 1.5 8
Salisbury, MD 10.0 3.4 12

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2025 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Spring 2025 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of February 20, 2025 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures for most of the Mid-Atlantic region for the spring 2025 season.72 The westernmost portions of the region are forecasted to have a 33-40-percent chance of above normal temperatures.73 The precipitation forecast shows an equal chance of wetter than, drier than, or near-normal conditions for southern parts of the region for the same period. Much of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia have a 33-40-percent chance of above normal precipitation for March, April, and May.74

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of February 28, 2025, the Outlook indicates that drought conditions will generally persist in the Mid-Atlantic region during the month of March. Drought is expected to persist in eastern Pennsylvania, northern Virginia, most of Maryland and all of Delaware.75 The Outlook predicts that there will be no drought in most of New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia.76

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has a La Niña advisory active as of March 13, 2025.77 Conditions are expected to transition to ENSO neutral over the next month and there is a 62 percent chance that ENSO neutral conditions will persist through the summer season (June-August).78 ENSO neutral indicates that there are approximately average surface water temperatures in the Pacific.79

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.80 However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Part 4: A Primer on Drought Hazard Levels

Drought categories—such as Moderate, Severe, and Extreme Drought—are critical indicators for cities, planners, and resource managers in the Mid-Atlantic as they can guide water management, emergency planning, and economic decision-making. Because drought can have significant impacts, especially to the agricultural and water resources sectors, drought categories may trigger actions to mitigate the impacts of ongoing drought or to provide relief to those who may already be impacted. For example, the duration and intensity of a drought may lead to the implementation of regulations on regional water resources, the enactment of water conservation measures at the municipal level, or the provision of drought relief funding to individual farmers. Developing or worsening drought conditions can also heighten wildfire risks, prompting emergency responders to prepare for potential outbreaks. Tracking the development and intensification of drought conditions can assist multiple sectors in planning, preparedness, and response measures.

Given the significance of drought categories across multiple sectors, it is essential to understand how they are developed and what they represent to inform decision-making.

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM)

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a weekly map depicting current drought conditions across the U.S. and its territories.81 Released every Thursday, the color-coded map categorizes drought intensity from normal conditions (None) to Exceptional Drought. The most current USDM map as of writing is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6. The U.S. Drought Monitor for the Mid-Atlantic

Graphic showing areas of drought in the Mid-Atlantic region for March 11, 2025. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Established in 1999, the USDM is widely used by state planners, policymakers, fire managers, and the agricultural community. It also plays a crucial role in triggering disaster declarations and relief programs for agencies such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The USDM website provides valuable resources, including historical archives, comparative change maps, time-series graphs, as shown in Figure 7, and regional data. Each weekly map includes a narrative explaining the reasoning behind the classifications and any observed changes.

Figure 7. Percent of Mid-Atlantic in Drought Monitor Categories over Time

A line graph representing the percentage of Mid-Atlantic region in drought categories from 2000 to 2025.

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Colors in the bar chart represent drought conditions present in the Mid-Atlantic for each year from 2000 to 2025 (Abnormally Dry, Severe Drought, Moderate Drought, Extreme Drought, and Exceptional Drought).

Abnormally dry conditions are most common throughout the time series, with extreme drought occurring in 2002 and 2024. No drought conditions were present between 2003 and 2005.

How Drought Maps Are Created

The USDM is produced through a collaboration between the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the USDA.82A rotating lead author synthesizes a range of data, as shown in Figure 8, including precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, vegetation health, streamflow, and groundwater levels. Local impacts, reported by federal and non-federal partners, help ground-truth the data. Importantly, USDM maps reflect current conditions only and do not incorporate forecasts.

Figure 8. Factors Contributing to Drought Maps

Factors contributing to drought maps include precipitation, snowpack, humidity, evapotranspiration, vegetation health, streamflow, lake and reservoir levels, and soil moisture and groundwater.

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

A flow chart depicting the factors contributing to Drought Maps: precipitation, snowpack, humidity, evapotranspiration, vegetation health, streamflow, and lake and reservoir levels.

Drought Categories

USDM categories include: Normal or wet Conditions (None), Abnormally Dry (D0), Moderate Drought (D1), Severe Drought (D2), Extreme Drought (D3), and Exceptional Drought (D4). Each category corresponds to a percentile range of indicators, as shown in Figure 9 below. For instance, D4 conditions typically occur once or twice in a century. The map also includes S (short-term drought, less than six months) and L (long-term drought, more than six months) designations.

Table 7. Drought Categories and Example Percentiles Used for Drought Classification

Category Description Example Percentile Range for Most Indicators
None Normal or wet conditions 30.01 or Above
D0 Abnormally Dry 20.01 to 30.00
D1 Moderate Drought 10.01 to 20.00
D2 Severe Drought 5.01 to 10.00
D3 Extreme Drought 2.01 to 5.00
D4 Exceptional Drought 0.00 to 2.00

Examples of Drought Impacts

As drought conditions intensify, impacts become more severe, and may include:

  • D0 (Abnormally Dry): Lawns brown, streams decline slightly, early crop stress
  • D1 (Moderate Drought): Increased irrigation, stunted crops, voluntary water conservation, restrictions on outdoor burning
  • D2 (Severe Drought): Low streamflows, fish kills, rising hay prices, crop damage
  • D3 (Extreme Drought): Dry wells, significant agricultural losses, wildlife disease outbreaks, water quality concerns
  • D4 (Exceptional Drought): Critical water shortages, record-low groundwater levels and streamflow

Figure 9 illustrates additional potential effects of each drought level.

Figure 9. Examples of Drought Impacts

Impacts associated with stages of drought from abnormally dry to moderate, severe, and extreme. Graphic by the Northeast Regional Climate Center

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

Drought Stage Impacts
Drought Stage Zero: Abnormally Dry
  • Fire danger increases
  • Crop growth is stunted
  • Lawns start to brown
  • Water levels decrease
Drought Stage One: Moderate
  • Honey production decreases
  • Stressed trees and landscaping
  • Suggested water consumption
  • Irrigation use increases
Drought Stage Two: Severe
  • Warnings for outdoor burns
  • High prices for hay
  • Well water quantity and quality decline
  • Many fish die off
Drought Stage Three: Extreme
  • Farmers struggle financially
  • Widespread crop loss
  • Wells run dry
  • Wildlife disease outbreak

For example, during the summer of 2024, rolled corn leaves were observed in Adams County, PA (D0), as shown below in Figure 10.83

Figure 10. Corn in Abnormally Dry Conditions, Adams County, Pennsylvania, July 2024

Corn stalks growing in abnormally dry conditions, Adams County, Pennsylvania, July 2024.

Source: CMOR

In fall 2019, Moderate Drought (D1) resulted in lower hay yields, requiring farmers to use their winter feed supplies earlier than expected. In July 2024, Severe Drought (D2) contributed to reduced flows in the Piney River, Virginia. A farm in Mineral County, West Virginia, experienced Extreme Drought (D3) during the summer of 2024 and had crispy pastures with nothing for their animals to graze, shown in Figure 11. Exceptional Drought (D4), while rare in the Mid-Atlantic, could lead to water scarcity and shortages.

Figure 11. Pasture in Extreme Drought, Mineral County, West Virginia, July 2025

Pasture in extreme drought conditions, Mineral County, West Virginia, July 2024.

Source: CMOR

The Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) system allows individuals to report drought impacts, contributing to interactive maps used by the public and USDM authors.84 Continued monitoring and adaptation are essential as climate patterns shift and water availability challenges evolve.

State-Level Drought Monitoring

Several Mid-Atlantic states have independent drought monitoring, declaration and response systems. Table 8 shows the various drought categories used by states in the Mid-Atlantic, as well as the indicators used to categorize drought.

Table 8. State Drought Categories and Indicators

State Drought Categories Drought Indicators
New York
  • Normal
  • Watch
  • Warning
  • Emergency
  • Precipitation
  • Groundwater
  • Stream flows
  • Lake and reservoir levels
Pennsylvania
  • Normal
  • Warning
  • Emergency
  • Precipitation (PDSI, SPI, % of ave)
  • Groundwater
  • Stream flows
Maryland
  • Normal
  • Watch
  • Warning
  • Emergency
  • Precipitation
  • Groundwater
  • Stream flows
  • Reservoir storage
Delaware
  • Watch
  • Warning
  • Emergency
  • Six and 12 month precipitation
  • Water table level
  • Stream flows
  • Reservoir storage
  • Chloride concentration in water bodies
Virginia
  • Normal
  • Watch
  • Warning
  • Emergency
  • Precipitation
  • Groundwater
  • Stream flows
  • Reservoir storage
West Virginia NA NA

State drought declarations are often tied to response measures, e.g., water conservation or temporary restrictions on outdoor burning, that are laid out in state-level planning documents, such as hazard mitigation plans, water plans, or dedicated drought plans. For example, the Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force designates three categories of drought—drought watch, drought warning, and drought emergency—for each of its 13 drought evaluation regions.85 These are shown below in Figure 12.

Figure 12. Comparison of USDM and Virginia Drought Categories

A comparison of the U.S. Drought Monitor map released on February 13, 2025, with the Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force map for February 9, 2025.

Sources: U.S. Drought Monitor and Virginia Department of Environmental Quality

During a drought watch they increase awareness of current conditions and distribute water conservation information, during a drought warning they begin voluntary water conservation, and in a drought emergency they begin mandatory water conservation. Other states have similar frameworks tied to hazard mitigation and water planning policies.86

Drought and Climate Change

Drought has impacted the Mid-Atlantic multiple times over the past century, with the drought of record occurring in the 1960s. This longer-term drought, which took place from 1962 to 1969, was one of the most severe and prolonged dry periods in the region's history, significantly impacting water resources, agriculture, and hydropower.

With climate change, the Mid-Atlantic has seen annual precipitation slightly increase, but when and how that precipitation falls is changing. Winters, in particular, have gotten wetter and more precipitation is falling in extreme events. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more water, causing longer time between rainfall events. When precipitation does fall, it tends to be in intense downpours. Water can scour the land and is lost to runoff, rather than being absorbed in the soil. Figure 13 shows projections of dry days, indicating that the Mid-Atlantic may see increases in periods of dry days by the end of the century.

Figure 13. Future Projections of Dry Days

How to Use the Tool

Selecting Temperature Thresholds, Time Periods and Future Emissions
Use the filters to the right of the maps to adjust the temperature threshold used to calculate the longest stretch of dry days and the 30-year time period. Users can also select the future emissions scenario (Low or High Emissions).

Viewing Data for a State or County
Use the State and County filters to the right of the table to have the plot show data for a particular location of interest.

Source: Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Fall 2022

With these changing patterns, more short-term droughts are being observed. While these droughts are short in duration compared to droughts in the western U.S., they often occur during the summer months when there is high water demand. This timing has the potential to greatly impact agriculture in the region, as well as recreational opportunities and drinking water supplies. This pattern of increased dry periods is expected to continue in the future.87 Climate models project more frequent short-term droughts in the Northeast, but the complex interaction between increased precipitation and the intensification of drought conditions leads to a high uncertainty in the frequency of longer-term droughts.88

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The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook is a quarterly series produced by the MARISA program, a collaboration funded by NOAA through the RAND Corporation and researchers at Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Morgan State University, and Carnegie Mellon University. This series is specifically designed to support policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic by serving as a data and information resource that is tailored to the region. It draws information from regional climate centers, news and weather information, and regional-specific climate data sets. Projections of weather and climate variability and change in the Mid-Atlantic region come from the best available scientific information. For any questions or comments, please contact Krista Romita Grocholski at Krista_Romita_Grocholski@rand.org.

This edition of the MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook was authored by Jessica Spaccio (Cornell University), Natalie Umphlett (Cornell University), Samantha Borisoff (Cornell University), Michelle E. Miro (RAND Corporation), Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND Corporation), Lena Easton-Calabria (RAND Corporation), and Arthur T. DeGaetano (Cornell University).

Citation: Spaccio, Jessica, Natalie Umphlett, Samantha Borisoff, Michelle E. Miro, Krista Romita Grocholski, Lena Easton-Calabria, and Arthur T. DeGaetano, Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2024-2025. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025.

Footnotes

  1. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan5_6_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  2. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/jan5-6_2025_storm Return to text ⤴

  3. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan5_6_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  4. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/jan5-6_2025_storm Return to text ⤴

  5. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  6. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan5_6_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  7. https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/weather-stories/live-updates-major-winter-snow-storm-dc-maryland-virginia/3805639/ Return to text ⤴

  8. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan5_6_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  9. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/jan5-6_2025_storm Return to text ⤴

  10. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSRNK&e=202502071541 Return to text ⤴

  11. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=202502061727 Return to text ⤴

  12. https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-wintry-schools-delayed-icy-baltimore/ Return to text ⤴

  13. https://dailyprogress.com/news/local/weather/ice-storm-knocks-out-power-to-thousands-in-central-virginia/article_5bba76ba-e49c-11ef-b64d-6723eaf3cec4.html Return to text ⤴

  14. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202502061932 Return to text ⤴

  15. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202502061535 Return to text ⤴

  16. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSRNK&e=202502121922 Return to text ⤴

  17. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202502121804 Return to text ⤴

  18. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSRNK&e=202502121922 Return to text ⤴

  19. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202502121804 Return to text ⤴

  20. https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/severe-weather/live-updates-tracking-snow-across-the-dc-maryland-virginia/65-d76b8652-a914-4671-9962-a62a41bc71c3 Return to text ⤴

  21. https://www.weather.gov/akq/feb_11_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  22. https://www.weather.gov/akq/feb_11_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  23. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSRNK&e=202502171822 Return to text ⤴

  24. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  25. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=202502161514 Return to text ⤴

  26. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=202502161441 Return to text ⤴

  27. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202502202023 Return to text ⤴

  28. https://www.facebook.com/NWSBaltWash/photos/here-is-the-current-summary-of-the-highest-wind-gusts-mph-across-the-region-the-/1019784373530620/?_rdr Return to text ⤴

  29. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRCTP&e=202502170135 Return to text ⤴

  30. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/event/2025-O-NEW-KLWX-BZ-W-0001/radar/USCOMP-N0Q-202502161800/tab/info Return to text ⤴

  31. https://www.weather.gov/akq/feb_19_20_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  32. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  33. https://www.weather.gov/akq/feb_19_20_2025_winterstorm Return to text ⤴

  34. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20241203/20241203_md_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  35. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20241203/20241203_va_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  36. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20241203/20241203_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  37. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250107/20250107_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  38. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250107/20250107_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  39. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250107/20250107_va_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  40. https://mde.maryland.gov/programs/water/droughtinformation/Currentconditions/Documents/Drought-Indicators-2024-12-31.pdf Return to text ⤴

  41. https://www.wgal.com/article/big-impacts-from-drought-conditions-across-susquehanna-valley/63241554 Return to text ⤴

  42. https://www.nvdaily.com/nvdaily/shenandoah-river-faces-lingering-health-concerns-from-dry-%20summers/article_3c8acdbd-e8c5-53b7-b1b5-1d9e7938ab26.html Return to text ⤴

  43. https://www.wboc.com/news/drought-speeds-up-forest-restoration-efforts-at-blackwater-national-wildlife-refuge/article_2b02b104-be5e-11ef-89e9-efeaf78a5d67.html Return to text ⤴

  44. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/20250128/20250128_huc02_chng_3W.png Return to text ⤴

  45. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/DGT/DGT_AKQ_02032025.pdf Return to text ⤴

  46. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250128/20250128_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  47. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250128/20250128_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  48. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250128/20250128_md_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  49. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250128/20250128_va_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  50. https://shensentinel.com/news/aqua-water-conservation/ Return to text ⤴

  51. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250225/20250225_huc01_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  52. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250225/20250225_va_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  53. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250225/20250225_md_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  54. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250128/20250128_md_trd.png Return to text ⤴

  55. Climate normals, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are "three-decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and precipitation." The latest climate normal released by NOAA is the 1991–2020 average. See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals Return to text ⤴

  56. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202501231637 Return to text ⤴

  57. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=202501221633 Return to text ⤴

  58. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  59. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202501231637 Return to text ⤴

  60. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=202501221633 Return to text ⤴

  61. https://local21news.com/news/local/tuesday-schools-2-hour-delays-closings-amid-freezing-temperatures-school-districts-cold-weather-pennsylvania-pa Return to text ⤴

  62. https://www.wgal.com/article/south-central-pennsylvania-cold-snap-leads-to-surge-in-heating-service-calls/63488014 Return to text ⤴

  63. https://www.chesapeakebaymagazine.com/cd-canal-under-ice-restrictions-as-upper-bay-potomac-hit-90-ice-cover/ Return to text ⤴

  64. https://health.maryland.gov/preparedness/Documents/Weekly%20Cold%20Report_1.29.25.pdf Return to text ⤴

  65. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  66. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  67. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  68. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2025/02/01/index.html Return to text ⤴

  69. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  70. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  71. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  72. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  73. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  74. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  75. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png Return to text ⤴

  76. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png Return to text ⤴

  77. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Return to text ⤴

  78. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2025-enso-update-neutral-conditions-expected-soon Return to text ⤴

  79. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_lanina Return to text ⤴

  80. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Return to text ⤴

  81. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu Return to text ⤴

  82. https://drought.unl.edu/Education/Tutorials/usdm.aspx Return to text ⤴

  83. https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dep/programs-and-services/water/bureau-of-safe-drinking-water/interstate-water-resources-management-division/drought-information.html Return to text ⤴

  84. https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObservations.aspx Return to text ⤴

  85. https://www.deq.virginia.gov/our-programs/water/water-quantity/drought Return to text ⤴

  86. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation: https://dec.ny.gov/environmental-protection/water/water-quantity/drought/current-drought-conditions; Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection: https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dep/programs-and-services/water/bureau-of-safe-drinking-water/interstate-water-resources-management-division/drought-information.html; Maryland Department of the Environment: https://mde.maryland.gov/programs/water/droughtinformation/pages/index.aspx; Delaware Water Conservation: https://dnrec.delaware.gov/water/commercial-government/water-allocation/conservation/ Return to text ⤴

  87. https://www.midatlanticrisa.org/data-tools/climate-data-tools/longest-stretch-of-dry-days.html Return to text ⤴

  88. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/22/JCLI-D-21-0810.1.xml Return to text ⤴

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