Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2024

Highlights

  • Average temperatures for the 2024 spring season were 2–4 degrees F above normal for the majority of the region. This is slightly less warm compared to normal than the winter season, but is a few degrees warmer than the spring 2023 season.
  • Precipitation amounts varied across the region this spring, with some locations, particularly western Pennsylvania, experiencing greater than 150 percent of normal precipitation and a few areas receiving between 50 percent and 75 percent of normal spring precipitation.
  • The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted with a high level of confidence to be an above-normal season with 17–25 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–7 major hurricanes (defined as category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph). A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Forecasters have a "higher-than-normal confidence" in their forecast for a very active season.1
  • The Mid-Atlantic Region could see more than a 35 percent increase in the average annual number of days with precipitation above two inches by the middle of the century and a nearly 60 percent increase by the end of the century under a high emissions future climate scenario (SSP3-7.0).

View all climate summaries

This summary focuses on weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region for the spring 2024 season. The spring season is defined as the months of March, April, and May. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Figure 1. MARISA Mid-Atlantic Region

A map of the Mid-Atlantic regional highlighting the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

This map shows the “MARISA region”. The lightly shaded area shows the extent of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Severe Weather

From April 1–5, a complex storm system brought heavy rain, severe weather, and some snow to the watershed. Much of the precipitation from this storm system fell as rain, with the greatest storm totals reaching over 4 inches of rain in central Pennsylvania.2,3 Storm reports noted multiple road closures and some flooded homes and basements in areas such as eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and central Pennsylvania.4,5 On April 3, an Enhanced Fujita Scale 1 (EF-1) tornado with an estimated peak wind speed of 95 to 100 miles per hour (mph) traveled 5.3 miles from Richmond County to Northumberland County in Virginia.6 The tornado uprooted and snapped trees, destroyed sheds, and damaged roofs but no injuries or deaths were reported.7 Cooler air moved into the region behind the storm on April 4 and 5, producing up to several inches of snow in some western and northern portions of the watershed, such as Highland County, Virginia, and Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania.8,9

Figure 2. Damage from April 3, 2024, Tornado

Tornado damage to a building in Virgina following an EF-1 tornado on April 3, 2024. Photo by National Weather Service

SOURCE: National Weather Service

During May, several rounds of severe weather affected the watershed. On May 11, straight-line winds downed trees and power lines in eastern Garrett County and western Allegany County in western Maryland.10,11 This was part of a broader severe weather event that also affected portions of western Maryland just outside of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.12

On May 24, severe thunderstorms produced damaging wind gusts that tore roofs off several condos in Ocean City, Maryland.13

On May 26, a widespread severe weather event affected Virginia, West Virginia, western Maryland, and southwestern Pennsylvania.14 An EF-1 tornado, with estimated wind speeds of up to 95 mph, traveled 4.8 miles across Culpepper County, Virginia.15 The tornado downed trees and overturned a shed, injuring five people who were inside.16,17 Strong thunderstorm winds also felled trees across southern parts of the watershed, causing one fatality in Nelson County, Virginia.18,19 Heavy rain caused localized flash flooding that closed roads and stranded vehicles in southeastern Virginia.20

The next day, on May 27, Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania saw its first tornado in over a decade: an EF-1 with estimated wind speeds of up to 90 mph.21 The tornado traveled along a 1.5-mile path, downing trees and damaging roofs, windows, and siding on buildings.22

Drought

While a sliver of abnormal dryness was present in central New York during March, the rest of the watershed remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.23 Wet weather during the first half of April helped alleviate prior drought conditions and dryness in the watershed.24

During May, areas of abnormal dryness were introduced on the Delmarva Peninsula, western Virginia, and a small portion of eastern West Virginia due to factors such as below-normal precipitation, low streamflow, and reduced soil moisture.25

Wildfire

Gusty winds, low humidity, and locally dry conditions contributed to multiple wildfires in the Mid-Atlantic during the spring fire season in March. On March 20 and 21, over 100 wildfires charred more than 7,500 acres in Virginia.26 Some residents in Page and Shenandoah Counties in Virginia had to evacuate, and more than a dozen homes were destroyed by the wildfires.27,28 In Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, some trails and a section of Skyline Drive were closed and a ban on all open fires was implemented.29,30 Thousands of acres were burned by wildfires in eastern West Virginia, with several homes and outbuildings destroyed in Hardy County.31,32 The wildfires reduced air quality in parts of the watershed, caused school closures and delays, and led to road closures.33,34,35 During this time period, brushfires were also noted in Maryland and Pennsylvania.36,37

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 3 shows the spring 2024 average temperature compared with the climate normal, which is defined as the average spring temperature from 1991 to 2020.38 The figure shows that the entire region experienced above normal temperatures this spring season. Most of the region experienced temperatures that were 2-4 degrees above normal, while a few areas experienced temperatures that were 4-6 degrees above normal. This is a few degrees warmer than the spring 2023 season.

Figure 3. March 1 – May 31, 2024 Departure from Normal Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)

A heat map showing departure from normal temperature in the Mid-Atlantic region from March to May, 2024.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the spring season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for spring compared with the same station's spring 2024 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at http://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Spring 2024 ranked among the top five warmest springs for nine sites in the watershed and multiple other sites experienced temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest springs on record (Table 1).

Additional temperature-related events are discussed in the Monthly Temperature Rankings section below.

Table 1. Spring Season (March–May) Temperature Rankings

Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Charlottesville, VA 61.6 57.9 2
Dulles Airport, VA 58.8 54.4 2
Richmond, VA 61.5 57.9 2
Binghamton, NY 49.5 44.4 3
Harrisburg, PA 56.0 52.8 3
Scranton, PA 53.4 49.8 3
Washington National, DC 60.6 57.7 3
Lynchburg, PA 59.7 55.6 4
Williamsport, PA 54.3 49.9 4
Norfolk, VA 61.8 59.7 6
Baltimore, MD 57.8 54.6 7
Martinsburg, WV 55.1 53.0 14
Salisbury, MD 56.8 54.7 16

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the spring season, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for spring temperatures.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

March 2024 ranked among the 20 warmest months of March on record for 13 sites in the watershed. April 2024 ranked among the top 20 warmest months of April on record for 11 sites, and May 2024 ranked among the top 20 warmest months of May for nine sites. These warmer-than-normal temperatures resulted in an earlier-than-usual spring leaf out and bloom in parts of the watershed.39 For instance, the peak bloom of the cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C., occurred on March 17, tying the second earliest date since 1921.40

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and temperatures are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Monthly Temperature Rankings

March Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 49.7 44.2 4
Binghamton, NY 39.6 32.3 5
Charlottesville, VA 53.8 48.7 6
Washington National, DC 51.9 47.6 8
Scranton, PA 44.0 38.3 9
Richmond, VA 53.4 48.4 10
Williamsport, PA 44.5 38.7 10
Harrisburg, PA 46.3 41.8 12
Baltimore, MD 49.0 44.3 15
Lynchburg, VA 51.9 46.4 15
Norfolk, VA 54.1 50.7 16
Martinsburg, WV 46.2 42.8 19
Salisbury, MD 48.9 45.3 19
April Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Charlottesville, VA 61.9 58.5 4
Dulles Airport, VA 59.1 55.0 5
Washington National, DC 60.5 58.2 9
Binghamton, NY 48.3 44.6 11
Williamsport, PA 53.4 50.3 11
Richmond, VA 61.1 58.4 12
Scranton, PA 52.4 50.2 12
Baltimore, MD 57.9 55.0 13
Lynchburg, VA 59.7 56.1 13
Harrisburg, PA 55.4 53.2 14
Norfolk, VA 61.6 60.1 14
May Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Binghamton, NY 60.5 56.2 7
Dulles Airport, VA 67.6 64.0 7
Williamsport, PA 64.9 60.8 9
Scranton, PA 63.8 60.9 10
Harrisburg, PA 66.2 63.4 12
Richmond, VA 70.1 66.7 13
Washington National, DC 69.3 67.2 16
Norfolk, VA 69.8 68.3 18
Charlottesville, VA 69.0 66.6 19

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the indicated month, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for that month's temperatures.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for March 1, 2024, through May 31, 2024, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average spring precipitation from 1991 – 2020. This figure shows that precipitation was variable throughout the watershed this spring. Western and central Pennsylvania saw particularly wet weather, experiencing greater than 150% of normal precipitation. Interestingly, this was primarily the result of two heavy rainfall events in these parts of Pennsylvania during the month of April.41 In contrast, southern and western Virginia experienced drier than normal conditions, with a few areas receiving between 50% and 75% of normal spring precipitation.

Figure 4. March 1 – May 31, 2024 Percentage of Normal Precipitation

A heat map showing departure from normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region for March to May, 2024. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for spring compared with the same station's spring 2024 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at http://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Spring 2024 ranked among the top 20 wettest springs on record for four sites in the watershed (see Table 3).

Additionally, the 2023-2024 snow season, which runs from October through May, ranked among the 20 least snowy on record for eight sites in the watershed including Dulles Airport, Virginia; Salisbury, Maryland; Williamsport, Pennsylvania, and Binghamton, New York.42 In fact, in Norfolk, Virginia, the season tied with several other years as the least snowy season on record.43

Table 3. Spring Season (March-May) Precipitation Rankings

Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Norfolk, VA 17.09 10.84 6
Binghamton, NY 13.28 10.46 7
Richmond, VA 15.60 11.18 11
Williamsport, PA 14.70 10.61 11

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

March 2024 ranked among the top 20 wettest months of March on record for five sites, including Norfolk, Virginia and Salisbury, Maryland which received 279 percent and 189 percent of their normal precipitation respectively.

April precipitation was more variable, with five sites experiencing precipitation amounts that ranked in their top 20 driest months of April on record and two sites experiencing one of their top 20 wettest months on record.

Only two sites in May experienced precipitation that ranked in the top 20 driest or wettest months of May on record. Both Richmond, Virginia and Binghamton, New York received enough precipitation to rank in the top 20 wettest Mays on record for the respective sites.

Additionally, Scranton, Pennsylvania, experienced its 14th least snowy March on record and Binghamton, New York, experienced its 15th least snowy April on record.44,45 Overall, both of these sites experienced spring seasons that ranked in their top 20 least snow on record (8th and 12th, respectively).

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of precipitation are shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Monthly Precipitation Rankings

March Precipitation Records (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Norfolk, VA 10.30 3.69 2
Salisbury, MD 7.88 4.17 3
Binghamton, NY 4.70 3.05 8
Richmond, VA 7.13 4.00 8
Scranton, PA 4.85 2.77 10
April Precipitation Records (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Salisbury, MD 1.21 3.42 4
Dulles Airport, VA 1.74 3.47 10
Richmond, VA 1.58 3.18 12
Norfolk, VA 1.23 3.37 13
Charlottesville, VA 1.70 3.17 18
April Precipitation Records (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Williamsport, PA 17
Binghamton, NY 18
May Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Richmond, VA 6.89 4.00 9
Binghamton, NY 4.35 3.78 20

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Summer 2024 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of May 16, 2024, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 40–50 percent chance of above normal temperatures for most of the Mid-Atlantic region for the months of June, July, and August.46 The northeastern half of Pennsylvania and nearly all of New York are forecasted to have a 40–50 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the summer months. 47 This forecast indicates that the Mid-Atlantic region is leaning towards having or is likely to have a warmer than normal summer season.48 The precipitation forecast shows a 50–60 percent chance of above normal precipitation in Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Delaware, a small sliver of eastern West Virginia and southeastern Pennsylvania, and a 33–40 percent chance of above normal precipitation for most of West Virginia, central and northern Pennsylvania and most of New York for the summer season.49

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of May 31, 2024, the Outlook indicates that drought conditions are not expected in the Mid-Atlantic region in the 2024 summer season.50

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has a final El Niño advisory and La Niña watch active as of June 13, 2024.51 This means El Niño conditions have transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions.52 There is a 65 percent chance of La Niña conditions developing during the July to September timeframe with an 85 percent chance that La Niña conditions will continue into the winter season.53

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.54 However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of April 4, 2024, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted an "extremely active" 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season with 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes (5 major hurricanes) and a 34 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. east coast.55 A key reason for the high number of forecasted hurricanes is the record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.56 These warm waters serve as the primary fuel for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.57 Given the warm ocean temperatures and the predicted change to La Niña conditions in the Pacific (which reduces wind shear), forecasters have a "higher-than-normal confidence" in their forecast for a very active season.58

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its prediction for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season on May 23, 2024. They forecast an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year with 17-25 named storms, out of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, and 4-7 of those could be major hurricanes (defined as category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph).59

A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).60

Part 4: Extreme Precipitation Projections Using Updated Climate Model Data from LOCA2

As described in the Winter 2023-2024 Climate Summary, the most recent scientific update to global climate model projections of future climate change – the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) – are now available for researchers and practitioners as downscaled projections for the United States. This dataset, Localized Constructed Analogues 2 (LOCA2), provides higher spatial resolution (~3.7 square miles) projections of future temperature and precipitation than the global CMIP6 models which have spatial resolutions on the order of tens to hundreds of square miles.61 LOCA and LOCA2 use similar downscaling methods, but LOCA2 was designed with the intention to do a better job of preserving any extremes in daily precipitation from the global climate models.62 A detailed comparison of how LOCA2 is different from LOCA is provided on the LOCA website. For a more complete discussion about and introduction to climate projections and future climate scenarios, see Part 4 of the Winter 2023-2024 Climate Summary.

All of our previous climate summaries have used the previous version of the LOCA downscaled climate models. This is our first summary that incorporates LOCA2 models. In future climate summaries, we will do a more detailed comparison between LOCA and LOCA2, but for now this summary is intended to provide an initial look at these new downscaled climate models.

In this section, we present an analysis of future projected days with extreme precipitation, or days with precipitation totals above 1, 2, or 3 inches.

Key Findings

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region could see more than a 35 percent increase in the average annual number of days with precipitation above 2 inches by the middle of the century and a nearly 60 percent increase by the end of the century under a high future climate scenario (SSP3-7.0).
  • The southeastern portion of the region and locations at higher elevation will generally see greater future instances of days with extreme precipitation, shown in the darker purples and blues in the 1-inch threshold maps. This is consistent with current climatology.

Figure 6. CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation Projections

How to Use the Tool

Selecting Precipitation Thresholds and Time Periods Use the filters to the right of the maps to adjust the precipitation threshold, future time period, and climate scenario.

Technical Notes

Localized Constructed Analogs 2 (LOCA2) is a downscaled climate data product available at 6 km resolution over the continental United States.63 The LOCA2 dataset includes 27 of the climate models available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) archive, for three future climate scenarios: an intermediate-emissions future (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5), a high-emissions future (SSP 3-7.0) and a very high-emissions future (SSP 5-8.5).64 For this tool, we used LOCA2 data over the Mid-Atlantic region from 2021-2100 (or 2099 for some models). Access LOCA2 datasets and learn more about the methodology.

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The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook is a quarterly series produced by the MARISA program, a collaboration funded by NOAA through the RAND Corporation and researchers at Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Morgan State University, and Carnegie Mellon University. This series is specifically designed to support policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic by serving as a data and information resource that is tailored to the region. It draws information from regional climate centers, news and weather information, and regional-specific climate data sets. Projections of weather and climate variability and change in the Mid-Atlantic region come from the best available scientific information. For any questions or comments, please contact Krista Romita Grocholski at Krista_Romita_Grocholski@rand.org.

This edition of the MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook was authored by Michelle E. Miro (RAND Corporation), Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND Corporation), Samantha Borisoff (Cornell University), Lena Easton-Calabria (RAND Corporation), Jessica Spaccio (Cornell University), and Arthur T. DeGaetano (Cornell University).

Citation: Miro, Michelle E., Krista Romita Grocholski, Samantha Borisoff, Lena Easton-Calabria, Jessica Spaccio, and Arthur T. DeGaetano, Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2024. RAND Corporation, 2024.

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Footnotes

  1. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/03/31/storm-united-states-severe-snow-flooding/ Return to text ⤴

  3. https://twitter.com/NWSStateCollege/status/1775965839281512547/photo/1 Return to text ⤴

  4. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#CTP,LWX/202404011200/202404061200/111010 Return to text ⤴

  5. https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/04/penndot-issues-updated-list-of-road-closures-caused-by-days-flooding.html Return to text ⤴

  6. https://www.weather.gov/akq/apr32024tornadosummary Return to text ⤴

  7. https://www.weather.gov/akq/apr32024tornadosummary Return to text ⤴

  8. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202404051657 Return to text ⤴

  9. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=202404041603 Return to text ⤴

  10. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202405120217 Return to text ⤴

  11. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettTorsMay2024 Return to text ⤴

  12. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/240511_rpts.html Return to text ⤴

  13. https://wjla.com/news/local/ocean-city-severe-storms-thunderstorms-cause-damage-buildings-memorial-day-holiday-weekend-beach-summer-spring-may-weather-forecast-photos-bay-spot Return to text ⤴

  14. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/240526_rpts.html Return to text ⤴

  15. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/CulpeperTor240526 Return to text ⤴

  16. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/CulpeperTor240526 Return to text ⤴

  17. https://www.wjla.com/news/local/tornado-culpeper-county-weather-injured-shed-virginia-rural-rixeyville-dundark-church-road-eggbornsville-settle-school-tolivers-no-deaths-clean-up-miles-distance-width-danger-natural-disaster-monumental-mills Return to text ⤴

  18. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/240526_rpts.html Return to text ⤴

  19. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202405271411 Return to text ⤴

  20. https://www.wavy.com/weather/reports-of-flooding-in-parts-of-hampton-roads/ Return to text ⤴

  21. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/Tornado_05272024_MahanoyCity Return to text ⤴

  22. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/Tornado_05272024_MahanoyCity Return to text ⤴

  23. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20240326/20240326_huc02_cat.png Return to text ⤴

  24. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20240423/20240423_huc02_cat.png Return to text ⤴

  25. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20240528/20240528_huc02_cat.png Return to text ⤴

  26. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152592/fires-in-the-appalachians Return to text ⤴

  27. https://www.whsv.com/2024/04/01/page-county-residents-share-how-wildfires-impacted-community/ Return to text ⤴

  28. https://www.dcnewsnow.com/news/local-news/virginia/page-county/crews-work-to-put-out-wildfires-in-page-county/ Return to text ⤴

  29. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/news/shenandoah-national-park-issues-closures-for-rocky-branch-fire.htm Return to text ⤴

  30. https://wjla.com/news/local/shenandoah-national-park-complete-fire-ban-high-winds-dry-conditions-luray-virginia-wildfires-skyline-drive-closed-national-weather-service-dmv-evacuate-page-county-red-flag-warning Return to text ⤴

  31. https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/national-guard-helicopters-help-battle-west-virginia-wildfires-in-steep-terrain-3/ Return to text ⤴

  32. https://wvmetronews.com/2024/03/25/forest-fires-contained-but-conditions-remain-high-for-fire-risk/ Return to text ⤴

  33. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=798907542284972&set=a.304666488375749 Return to text ⤴

  34. https://www.wboy.com/news/west-virginia/8-west-virginia-counties-under-air-quality-advisory-from-wildfire-smoke/ Return to text ⤴

  35. https://www.insidenova.com/headlines/updated-wildfires-wreak-havoc-across-northern-virginia/article_da98ef4a-e6f3-11ee-a20a-9b3f880bdfc6.html Return to text ⤴

  36. https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/maryland/multiple-homes-evacuated-brush-fire-montgomery-county/65-6de1869c-011a-45d9-9a5b-6f221afe34ec Return to text ⤴

  37. https://www.abc27.com/local-news/lancaster/over-15-acres-burned-after-lancaster-county-brush-fire/ Return to text ⤴

  38. Climate normals, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are "three-decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and precipitation." The latest climate normal released by NOAA is the 1991–2020 average. See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals Return to text ⤴

  39. https://twitter.com/NWSStateCollege/status/1772676607154459122 Return to text ⤴

  40. https://www.nps.gov/subjects/cherryblossom/bloom-watch.htm Return to text ⤴

  41. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2024/05/02/index.html Return to text ⤴

  42. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2024/06/01/index.html Return to text ⤴

  43. http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  44. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2024/04/01/index.html Return to text ⤴

  45. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2024/05/02/index.html Return to text ⤴

  46. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  47. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  48. For more information on how NOAA defines at, above or below normal and determines percent chances, see: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php Return to text ⤴

  49. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  50. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png Return to text ⤴

  51. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Return to text ⤴

  52. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Return to text ⤴

  53. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Return to text ⤴

  54. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  55. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  56. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  57. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  58. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  59. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season Return to text ⤴

  60. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/average-atlantic-hurricane-season-to-reflect-more-storms Return to text ⤴

  61. Soares, P. M. M., Johannsen, F., Lima, D. C. A., Lemos, G., Bento, V. A., and Bushenkova, A.: High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 229–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, 2024. Return to text ⤴

  62. https://loca.ucsd.edu/loca-version-1-vs-loca-version-2/ Return to text ⤴

  63. https://www.midatlanticrisa.org/climate-summaries/2024/03.html#part-4-a-primer-on-climate-pro- Return to text ⤴

  64. https://www.midatlanticrisa.org/climate-summaries/2024/03.html#part-4-a-primer-on-climate-pro- Return to text ⤴

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