Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2026

Highlights

• Average temperatures for the 2026 spring season were above normal (2–6 degrees) across the region, but several large temperature swings occurred as fronts passed through the region, sometimes going from record high temperatures to record low temperatures. These swings in temperature were particularly impactful for agriculture in the region, with significant crop losses (up to 100%) of apples, cherries, peaches, and other fruit reported across the region.
• Precipitation conditions varied across the Mid-Atlantic, with the northern portion of the region seeing above normal precipitation and the southern portions seeing below normal precipitation. As a result, drought conditions improved in Pennsylvania and worsened in Virginia and Maryland. In mid-May, over 95 percent of Maryland was in extreme drought, its highest coverage of this level of drought on record. Virginia saw its second highest extent of extreme drought at over 49 percent. By the end of the season, extreme drought conditions improved, but all of Virginia and over 95 percent of Maryland was in severe drought.
• The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to be a below-normal season with 8–14 named storms, out of which 3–6 could become hurricanes and 1–3 of those could become major hurricanes (defined as category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 miles per hour). A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
• This summary also includes a primer on hurricanes and tropical storms in the Mid-Atlantic, covering the region's historical storm activity, how tropical systems are classified and forecasted, the watches and warnings used to communicate risk, the major impacts these storms can produce, and how hurricanes are changing in a warming climate.

View all climate summaries

This summary focuses on spring weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region. The spring season is defined as the months of March, April, and May. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

This map shows the “MARISA region”. The lightly shaded area shows the extent of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Severe Weather

Severe thunderstorms produced tornadoes, straight-line winds, and hail as they moved through the watershed in March.¹ On March 11, an Enhanced Fujita Scale 1 (EF-1) tornado in Howard County, Maryland and an EF-0 in Carroll County, Maryland snapped/uprooted dozens of trees.² On March 16, two tornadoes in Maryland—an EF-0 in Carroll County and an EF-1 in Caroline County—caused significant tree damage.³ Many locations in Maryland, Virginia, and Delaware experienced damaging wind gusts that downed wires and trees, some of which fell on houses or vehicles.⁴ Concentrated areas of more intense damage caused by winds of 80 to 90 miles per hour (mph) were found in Caroline and Queen Annes' counties in Maryland.⁵ In these areas, the roofs of several farm buildings were partially or completely removed, power poles were snapped, and numerous trees were damaged.⁶ During March, there were four tornadoes in Maryland, well above its March average of zero (based on data from 2001 to 2025).⁷

Severe weather was limited in April, with no tornadoes reported in the watershed. The average number of tornadoes in April is four in Virginia, two in Pennsylvania, one each in Maryland and New York, and zero in West Virginia and Delaware.^8,9

During May, damaging wind gusts occurred in the watershed, but there were no tornadoes, which is fewer than average.^10,11 On May 20, a strong cold front moved across the region, ending a period of unusually hot temperatures and producing severe thunderstorms.¹² These storms brought strong winds that downed trees and power poles, particularly in central Maryland, northern Virginia, and south-central Pennsylvania.¹³ Additional rounds of precipitation moved through the region between May 21 and 28, with portions of the Mid-Atlantic seeing between 2 and 8 inches of rain.¹⁴ The rain temporarily helped with drought conditions for portions of the watershed (see additional discussion in Drought section below).¹⁵

SOURCE: National Weather Service

Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor from March 3 showed drought conditions, particularly moderate drought, covering much of the watershed to start the spring season.¹⁶ In fact, drought covered 71 percent of Virginia, 79 percent of Maryland, and 50 percent of Pennsylvania.¹⁷ During March, above-normal precipitation and snowmelt helped streamflow and groundwater levels recover in some northern parts of the watershed, allowing drought and abnormally dry conditions to improve.^18,19 For example, severe drought shrank in coverage in Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania and was removed from central New York.²⁰ Localized improvements also occurred in places like eastern West Virginia, Maryland, northern and eastern Virginia, and on the Delmarva Peninsula.²¹ Although there was improvement in the northern part of the region, severe drought spread in western Virginia.²² By the end of the month, drought covered 78 percent of Virginia, 75 percent of Maryland, and 22 percent of Pennsylvania.²³ The ongoing drought caused reduced streamflow and/or soil moisture to be present in some southern parts of the watershed, with voluntary and mandatory water restrictions in place for a few Pennsylvania communities.^24,25

During April, drought conditions intensified in Virginia, eastern West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania.²⁶ This was due to factors like unusually warm temperatures, limited precipitation, record to near record low streamflow, and reduced groundwater levels and soil moisture.^27,28 By April 28, extreme drought was introduced in Virginia, while severe drought expanded to cover 86 percent of the state.^29,30 Virginia reached its highest coverage of severe or worse drought since September 2002 and its fourth-highest such coverage since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000.³¹ Meanwhile, 68 percent of Maryland was in severe drought by April 28, a rapid expansion since April 1 when only 1 percent of the state was in severe drought.³² Additionally, West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle and parts of southern Pennsylvania experienced severe drought, with moderate drought also present in southern parts of the watershed.³³ As of April 28, all of Virginia and 99 percent of Maryland were in drought.^34,35

During April, record- or near-record low streamflows were observed in southern parts of the watershed.^36,37 This included parts of the Rappahannock River in Virginia and the Potomac River in Maryland.^38,39 Record- or near-record low groundwater levels were also present in several areas, particularly parts of Virginia and Maryland.⁴⁰ Mandatory water restrictions were in place in a few communities in central Pennsylvania and western and central Virginia. ^41,42,43 Soil moisture was significantly reduced in parts of Maryland and Virginia, where planting was delated and irrigation was being used.^44,45 Other crop issues reported in Virginia included slow corn and hay growth and poor pasture conditions.^46,47,48 Several counties or municipalities in Virginia, Maryland, and south-central Pennsylvania enacted burn bans due to dry conditions.^49,50,51

During the first half of May, drought conditions intensified in southern parts of the watershed, which continued to see limited precipitation, record low streamflow, declining groundwater levels, reduced soil moisture, and other impacts.⁵² Extreme drought expanded in Virginia and was introduced in eastern West Virginia, while severe drought spread in Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania.⁵³ As of May 19, 49.70 percent of Virginia was in extreme drought, its second highest such coverage since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000.⁵⁴ Meanwhile, 95.09 percent of Maryland was in severe drought, its highest such coverage in the U.S. Drought monitor era.⁵⁵ The second half of May brought locally significant rainfall to portions of the watershed, easing drought in some areas.⁵⁶ For example, extreme drought contracted in Virginia and eastern West Virginia, while severe drought was removed from portions of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.⁵⁷ As of May 26, drought still covered all of Virginia and 95 percent of Maryland.⁵⁸ However, extreme drought was confined to 36.12 percent of Virginia and severe drought was reduced to 51.63 percent of Maryland.⁵⁹

During much of May, record to near record low streamflow continued to be observed in southern parts of the watershed.⁶⁰ For instance, 30 gages in Virginia measured record low streamflow on May 12.⁶¹ Similarly, a May 14 report from the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin noted that a gage along the Potomac River upstream from Washington, D.C., had seen multiple days of record low flow.⁶² Reduced water levels in central Virginia affected recreation, causing a water sports company to stop operations over Memorial Day weekend.⁶³ Groundwater levels were also much below normal in multiple locations, even after the late-month rainfall.^64,65 Some communities including Gordonsville, Virginia, implemented mandatory water restrictions, while over communities like Middletown, Maryland, banned outdoor watering.^66,67 Voluntary water conservation was requested in many areas including Baltimore, Maryland, and Newport News, Virginia.^68,69 Farmers relied on irrigation, but impacts on agriculture continued to be reported.⁷⁰ For instance, reports from Virginia noted delayed spring planting, poor pasture conditions, reduced hay yields, and stunted corn.^71,72,73 Similar impacts were reported in eastern West Virginia, where producers noted that water was being hauled for cattle because water sources had run low or dried up and that supplemental hay was being fed to livestock due to poor pasture conditions.⁷⁴ Meanwhile, some Maryland growers reported that were was not enough rain to allow fertilizer to dissolve into the ground.⁷⁵

SOURCE: U.S. Drought Monitor

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 4 shows the spring 2026 average temperature compared with the climate normal—i.e., the average seasonal temperature from 1991 to 2020.⁷⁶ The figure shows that the entire region experienced above normal temperatures this spring. Generally, the eastern portions of the region saw temperatures 2–4 degrees above normal, and the western part of the region saw temperatures that were 4–6 degrees above normal. The western portions of the region were a few degrees warmer than the spring 2025 season and, overall, this is a large change from the winter 2025-2026 season, which saw temperatures mostly 2–4 degrees below normal.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the spring season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Shades of red indicate above-normal temperatures. Shades of blue indicate below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on comparing the Parameter Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) gridded dataset from the spring season to the PRISM gridded historical dataset from 1991-2020. Additional details about these data can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

While the overall temperatures were warmer than normal, there were several instances of extreme temperature swings that were quite impactful in the watershed this spring.⁷⁷ Figure 5 shows how daily average temperatures varied from normal during the spring season at six sites across the watershed. There are several instances, across all sites where temperatures went from above normal to below normal in a short period of time. We discuss the impact of these events, particularly on agriculture, in the Monthly Temperature Rankings section below.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026

Bar charts show average temperature departure over time from late February through early June 2026 for six locations: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Martinsburg, West Virginia; Norfolk, Virginia; Baltimore, Maryland; Binghamton, New York; and Dulles Airport, Virginia.

The color of the bars shows the departure from average temperature, ranging from -20 degrees to 30 degrees.

• A strong warm spell occurs in early March at every location, peaking around 20 to 30 degrees above average.
• Another warm period appears in late March to early April across all locations, again with widespread positive departures, though generally somewhat smaller than the strongest early-March peak.
• A third sustained warm spell occurs in mid-April, with most sites around 15 to 20 degrees above average.
• A shorter warm period appears again in mid-May, with moderate positive departures across all six sites.
• Cool periods are most visible in late April through early May, and again in late May. These negative departures are usually smaller in magnitude than the largest warm departures, though some locations show dips near negative 10 to negative 20 degrees.
• Martinsburg, West Virginia shows one of the strongest cold anomalies in late April, reaching roughly 20 degrees below average.

Driven by mild weather in March and April, this spring ranked among the 20 warmest springs on record for much of the watershed.^78,79 For instance, Richmond, Virginia had its second-warmest spring, while Martinsburg, West Virginia had its fourth warmest.

As shown in Table 1, at least 13 sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced average spring temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest on record.

Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Richmond, VA	61.5	57.9	2
Charlottesville, VA	59.6	57.9	4
Dulles Airport, VA	58.1	54.4	4
Martinsburg, WV	56.6	53.0	4
Norfolk, VA	62.6	59.7	4
Salisbury, MD	57.5	54.7	5
Washington National, DC	60.2	57.7	6
Lynchburg, VA	59.0	55.6	9
Binghamton, NY	47.2	44.4	10
Baltimore, MD	57.4	54.6	11
Scranton, PA	51.2	49.8	11
Harrisburg, PA	54.8	52.8	13
Williamsport, PA	52.0	49.9	14

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

On three days in March, Dulles Airport, Virginia, recorded high temperatures that ranked among its 10 warmest for March. Dulles Airport's high of 85 degrees F on March 10 tied as its 10^th warmest high for March, while its high of 86 degrees F on March 11 and 22 tied as its fifth warmest for March.⁸⁰ On March 11, Binghamton, New York tied its fourth-warmest low temperature for March with a low of 56 degrees F, while Dulles Airport, Virginia, tied its ninth-warmest low temperature for March with a low of 60 degrees F.⁸¹

This March ranked among the 20 warmest Marches on record for many sites in the watershed.⁸² For instance, Richmond, Virginia, had its fourth-warmest March, while Washington, D.C., had its eight warmest and Scranton, Pennsylvania, had its 12^th warmest.^83,84

On April 2, Dulles Airport, Virginia, had a low temperature of 67 degrees F, which tied as its second-warmest low for April on record.⁸⁵ The warm temperatures in March and early April accelerated the growth of several frost-sensitive crops, such as fruit trees, leaving them vulnerable to frost events.⁸⁶

A freeze event from April 7 to 8 damaged crops including apples, peaches, cherries, and apricots in some southern parts of the watershed.^87,88 For example, some varieties of apples and peaches were almost a complete loss near Winchester, Virginia, while 30 percent to 90 percent of peach blossoms were lost in Adams County, Pennsylvania.^89,90

The watershed experienced an unusually warm period from April 13 to 17, with the highest temperatures in the 80s and 90s and warmest lows in the 50s and 60s.⁹¹ For instance, on April 16, the high temperature at Dulles Airport, Virginia was 92 degrees F, typing as its eighth warmest high temperature on record for April.⁹² The next day, on April 17, Washington, D.C., had a low temperature of 68 degrees F, tying its third-warmest low for April on record.⁹³

A few days later, a cold snap from April 20 to 21 brought below-freezing lows to much of the region, with freeze warnings from Pennsylvania to Virginia.⁹⁴ The cold temperatures caused significant damage at vineyards and orchards as the warmer-than-normal temperatures during the first half of spring allowed fruit trees and grape vines to bud earlier than usual.^95,96,97 Grape crop losses varied by location and varietal, with early estimates indicating losses as high as 70 to 100 percent in parts of Virginia and Maryland.^98,99,100 Significant crop losses of apples, cherries, peaches, and other fruit were also reported.^101,102,103 Crop losses tied to the April freeze events were expected to exceed at least $28 million in Pennsylvania.¹⁰⁴

April 2026 ranked among the 20 warmest Aprils on record for much of the watershed.¹⁰⁵ For example, Norfolk, Virginia, had its third-warmest April on record, while Martinsburg, West Virginia, had its sixth warmest and Binghamton, New York, had its seventh warmest.^106,107

A heat event from May 18 to 20 brough unusually hot temperatures to the watershed.¹⁰⁸ The highest temperatures ranged from the mid 80s to upper 90s, with several sites recording temperatures that ranked amongst their 10 hottest for May.¹⁰⁹ For example, Washington, D.C.'s high of 97 degrees F on May 19 tied as its fourth-hottest temperature for May, while its high of 96 degrees F on May 20 tied as its 10^th-hottest May temperature.¹¹⁰ Low temperatures were also notably warm in some locations.¹¹¹ For the first time on record, Binghamton, New York recorded a low of 70 degrees F in May, its hottest low temperature for the month.¹¹² During the event, the site also had a love of 66 degrees which tied as its fifth-hottest low temperature for May.¹¹³ Despite the heat event, unusually cool temperature at other times during May, particularly the first half of the month, caused May to be cooler than normal for most of the watershed.¹¹⁴

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and temperatures are shown in Table 2.

March Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA	51.0	44.2	2
Martinsburg, WV	49.5	42.8	4
Richmond, VA	55.1	48.4	4
Norfolk, VA	55.9	50.7	5
Lynchburg, VA	53.2	46.4	7
Salisbury, MD	50.8	45.3	7
Charlottesville, VA	53.1	48.7	8
Washington National, DC	52.7	47.6	8
Binghamton, NY	38.3	32.3	9
Baltimore, MD	49.7	44.3	11
Scranton, PA	42.8	38.3	12
Harrisburg, PA	45.9	41.8	15
Williamsport, PA	43.1	38.7	17

April Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA	60.1	55.0	2
Norfolk, VA	64.4	60.1	3
Richmond, VA	63.1	58.4	3
Charlottesville, VA	61.9	58.5	4
Lynchburg, VA	61.0	56.1	4
Washington National, DC	62.0	58.2	4
Martinsburg, WV	57.9	53.6	6
Baltimore, MD	58.8	55.0	7
Binghamton, NY	49.0	44.6	7
Williamsport, PA	54.2	50.3	8
Scranton, PA	52.7	50.2	9
Harrisburg, PA	56.4	53.2	10
Salisbury, MD	58.1	55.1	11

May Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
No sites experienced May temperatures that ranked in the top 20 warmest or coldest months of May on record.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Precipitation

Figure 5 shows how the total precipitation for March 1 through May 31, 2026, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average spring precipitation from 1991–2020. This figure shows that the amount of precipitation received varied significantly going from northwest to southeast across the region. This disparity in amounts of precipitation across the region was due to the jet stream being set up in a ridge pattern that caused many rain storms to go to the north and often blocked them from going to the southern parts of the region.¹¹⁵ Northern portions of the region saw above normal precipitation, with parts of southern New York seeing 150-200 percent of normal precipitation, and areas of western Pennsylvania seeing 125–150 percent of normal precipitation. Whereas areas in the southeastern portion of the region only saw 50–75 percent of normal precipitation with small pockets outside of Richmond, Virginia, in southern Maryland, and the Delmarva Peninsula received only 25-50 percent of normal precipitation.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Blue shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on comparing the Parameter Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) gridded dataset from the spring season to the PRISM gridded historical dataset from 1991-2020. Additional details about these data can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_webservices.html.

Spring 2026 ranked among the 20 driest springs on record for multiple sites in southern parts of the watershed.^116,117 This included Salisbury, Maryland, with its second-driest spring, and Charlottesville, Virginia, with its eighth driest. However, the season was among the 20 wettest springs on record for some sites in northern parts of the watershed.^118,119 For instance, Binghamton, New York had its 11^th-wettest spring, while Scranton, Pennsylvania had its 12^th-wettest.

Spring 2026 ranked among the top 20 driest spring seasons on record for six sites in the watershed and among the top 20 wettest spring season for two sites (Table 3).

Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
Salisbury, MD	5.31	11.32	2
Charlottesville, VA	5.92	10.88	8
Richmond, VA	6.66	11.18	9
Norfolk, VA	6.86	10.84	11
Washington, DC	6.30	10.65	11
Lynchburg, VA	6.75	11.19	16

Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY	12.78	10.46	11
Scranton, PA	12.47	9.29	12

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

March ranked among the 20 driest Marches on record for several sites, including Salisbury, Maryland and Norfolk, and Richmond, Virginia. However, it was also among the 20 wettest Marches for several sites, including the third wettest on record for Binghamton, New York.

April 2026 ranked among the 20 driest Aprils on record for multiple sites in southern parts of the watershed.^120,121 For instance, Lynchburg, Virginia, had its fourth-driest April on record, while Norfolk, Virginia, had its eighth driest and Washington, D.C., had its 16^th driest.^122,123

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of precipitation are shown in Table 4.

March Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
Salisbury, MD	1.66	4.17	12
Norfolk, VA	1.78	3.69	15
Richmond, VA	1.71	4.00	15

March Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY	5.91	3.05	3
Scranton, PA	5.14	2.77	7
Williamsport, PA	4.70	3.13	14

April Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
Lynchburg, VA	0.95	3.45	4
Charlottesville, VA	0.81	3.17	5
Richmond, VA	0.98	3.18	6
Norfolk, VA	1.00	3.37	8
Dulles Airport, VA	1.67	3.47	9
Salisbury, MD	1.73	3.42	14
Washington, DC	1.55	3.21	16
Baltimore, MD	1.71	3.39	19

May Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked in their top 20 wettest or driest months of May on record.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Spring 2026 ranked as among the 20 least snowy on record for two sites in the watershed (Table 5).

Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Scranton, PA	0.9	10.9	6
Binghamton, NY	7.9	20.3	11

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

This March ranked among the 20 least snowy Marches on record for Harrisburg and Scranton, Pennsylvania.^124,125 Binghamton, New York, had its 19^th-least snowy April on record.¹²⁶

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of snowfall are shown in Table 6.

March Snowfall Rankings
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Harrisburg, PA	Trace	5.6	6 (tied with 16 other years)
Scranton, PA	0.9	10.1	14

April Snowfall Rankings
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Binghamton, NY	0.7	3.8	19
Note: April rankings are only shown for those sites that experienced measurable snow.

May Snowfall Rankings
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
No sites experienced snowfall in May, which is typical.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Summer 2026 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of June 18, 2026 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 40-50 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and a 33-40-percent chance of above normal temperatures for the central and western portions of the region for the summer 2026 season.¹²⁷ The precipitation forecast shows that all of the region has an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation for June, July, and August.¹²⁸

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of June 18, 2026, the Outlook indicates that drought will persist in most of Virginia and Maryland, all of Washington, D.C., and Delaware, the panhandle of West Virginia, and southeastern and south-central Pennsylvania.¹²⁹ Drought conditions are expected to improve but remain in the westernmost portions of Virginia and southern West Virginia.¹³⁰ No drought is expected in the rest of Pennsylvania and across most of New York.¹³¹

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has an El Niño advisory active as of June 11, 2026.¹³² This means that El Niño conditions developed over the last month and are present today. They also expect these conditions to continue to strengthen into the winter months.¹³³ In the late fall into winter, there is a 63% chance that historically strong El Niño conditions will develop, that could rank among the largest El Niño events on record (since 1950).

El Niño conditions are then predicted to continue throughout the fall and into the winter season (99 percent chance in December 2026-February 2027).¹³⁴

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.¹³⁵ However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of June 10, 2026, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with 11 named storms and five hurricanes (with two of those expected to be major storms) and an 11 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. East Coast.^136,137 This is a small reduction from their original forecast in May due to the emergence of the strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.¹³⁸ Strong El Niño conditions tend to cause increased wind shear in the Atlantic, which makes it harder for tropical storms to form and intensify in the Atlantic Ocean.¹³⁹

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), as of May 21, 2026, is forecasting a 55 percent chance of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.¹⁴⁰ NOAA is forecasting, with 70 percent confidence, a total of 8-14 named storms, out of which 3-6 could become hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes (meaning they would have windspeeds of at least 111 miles per hour).¹⁴¹ A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.¹⁴²

Part 4: A Primer on Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the Mid-Atlantic

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity from August through October, when warm ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions support the majority of tropical cyclone development.¹⁴³ On average, the Atlantic basin produces about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per season (1991–2020 climatology.¹⁴⁴

Tropical systems are monitored from their earliest stages through their full lifecycle by NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC), which works in coordination with local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices to issue advisories, watches, and warnings.

Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic lies north of the Atlantic basin's main development region and historically experiences fewer tropical cyclones than the Gulf Coast or Southeast. From 1990 to 2017, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast together received roughly 6% of all tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the continental United States annually.¹⁴⁵ Within the regional record, September is the most active month, followed by August, and the seasonal distribution has remained relatively stable over time.¹⁴⁶

In the Mid-Atlantic, the period from 2000 to 2020 saw nearly twice as many hurricanes affecting the region as the preceding two decades (1980–2000).¹⁴⁷ The 2004 season remains the most active on record for the region.¹⁴⁸

Despite the relatively low frequency, individual storms have produced some of the costliest disasters in U.S. history. Damage estimates from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Billion-Dollar Disasters database (CPI-adjusted to 2024 dollars) include:¹⁴⁹

• Hurricane Sandy (2012): ~$88 billion in total damage, with catastrophic surge along the New Jersey and New York coasts and significant impacts in Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia.
• Hurricane Ida (2021): ~$84 billion in total damage; remnants produced record flash flooding and tornadoes across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Maryland, killing more than 50 people in the Northeast.
• Hurricane Floyd (1999): ~$12 billion in total damage; widespread inland flooding across the Mid-Atlantic.
• Hurricane Isabel (2003): ~$9 billion in total damage; produced major surge in the Chesapeake Bay and widespread wind damage from Virginia through Pennsylvania.
• Tropical Storm Lee (2011): ~$3.5 billion, with extensive inland flooding in Pennsylvania.

Storm Classifications

The NHC tracks low-pressure disturbances forming over the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Under favorable conditions—warm sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and sufficient atmospheric moisture—these disturbances can organize into tropical cyclones. Classifications are based on maximum sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds at 10 meters above the surface.¹⁵⁰

A tropical depression has an organized circulation and some thunderstorm activity, but lacks the wind strength and structural organization of stronger systems. Hurricane intensity is further described by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which estimates potential property damage from Category 1 ("very dangerous winds") through Category 5 ("catastrophic damage").¹⁵¹

Source: NOAA

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for Categories 1 through 5:

• Category 1
  • Wind: 74 to 95 miles per hour
  • Damage: Very dangerous winds will produce some damage
• Category 2
  • Wind: 96 to 110 miles per hour
  • Damage: Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage
• Category 3
  • Wind: 111 to 129 miles per hour
  • Damage: Devastating damage will occur
• Category 4
  • Wind: 130 to 156 miles per hour
  • Damage: Catastrophic damage will occur
• Category 5
  • Wind: 157 miles per hour or higher
  • Damage: Catastrophic damage will occur

A post-tropical cyclone has lost defining tropical features, such as a warm core or organized central convection, often transitioning into an extratropical system as it moves into cooler mid-latitude waters. Despite this transition, these systems can still produce significant impacts, including heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and coastal flooding. This distinction matters for the Mid-Atlantic, where many of the region's most damaging storms (including Hurricane Sandy) arrive as post-tropical or transitioning systems.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Seasonal Outlooks

Forecasting begins in mid-May, before the official start of hurricane season, when NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues its Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. These outlooks provide expected ranges for the number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which combines storm frequency, intensity, and duration.¹⁵² Each season is categorized as below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal, and the outlook is updated in early August.

Season Type	Mean	Range of Named storms	Mean	Range of Hurricanes	Mean	Range of Major Hurricanes
Above-Normal	15.9	11 to 30	9.2	6 to 15	4.5	2 to 7
Near-Normal	11.7	6 to 18	6.2	3 to 9	2.2	1 to 4
Below-Normal	8.6	4 to 14	3.8	2 to 6	1.2	0 to 2

NOTE: This table is based on data from 1950–2000.

Importantly, seasonal outlooks predict basin-wide activity, not landfall. Key inputs include sea-surface temperatures, trade wind strength, vertical wind shear, the West African monsoon, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase.

Real-Time Forecasting

Once a system develops, forecasters generally rely on satellite imagery, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, dropsondes, buoys, and an ensemble of dynamical and statistical computer models, combined with forecaster expertise.¹⁵³ The NHC labels each disturbance with a 7-day formation probability (<40%, 40–60%, or >60%).

When a tropical depression does form, the location, wind speeds, and movement are monitored. For active storms, the NHC issues forecasts of position and intensity, accompanied by the "cone of uncertainty". This cone shows the possible track of the system, with the cone and uncertainty in the forecast getting larger with forecast lead time (see Figure 8). Forecasting the track can be difficult because several factors including other weather systems will impact the movement of the tropical system. The cone widens with forecast lead time to reflect growing uncertainty.

Source: NWS National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center forecast cone map for Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico, dated Tuesday, October 8, 2024, at 8 a.m. CDT. The projected path of the storm is shown from the northwestern Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida and then into the western Atlantic Ocean.

The plotted cone path contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm, and hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.

The forecast track begins in the southern Gulf of Mexico and moves generally east to east-northeast. Labeled forecast points include:

• 1 a.m. Tuesday, southwest of Florida near the Yucatan Channel region
• 1 a.m. Wednesday in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
• 1 p.m. Wednesday farther east in the Gulf
• 1 a.m. Thursday approaching the west coast of Florida
• 1 p.m. Thursday crossing central Florida
• 1 a.m. Friday just off the east coast of Florida
• 1 a.m. Saturday over the western Atlantic
• 1 a.m. Sunday farther northeast over the Atlantic

The cone widens over time, indicating increasing forecast uncertainty. The storm is shown strengthening over the Gulf as a major hurricane and then weakening after crossing Florida and moving into the Atlantic.

Track forecasts have improved substantially over the past several decades due to better models and observations. Intensity forecasts remain more challenging, particularly for rapid intensification, defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours, because small changes in storm structure, ocean heat content, and wind shear can produce large differences in outcomes.¹⁵⁴

Watches and Warnings

The NWS issues watches and warnings tied to specific hazards. In general, a watch indicates conditions are possible, while a warning indicates conditions are expected or occurring. In addition to what is listed below, flood and tornado watches and warnings can accompany tropical cyclones.

Wind-Based Alerts

• Tropical Storm Watch / Warning: Tropical-storm-force winds (39–73 mph) possible within 48 hours / expected within 36 hours.
• Hurricane Watch / Warning: Hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours / expected within 36 hours.
• Extreme Wind Warning: Major-hurricane-force sustained winds (typically eyewall winds) expected within one hour.

Source: Weather.gov

Tropical Storm & Hurricanes

Watches Versus Warnings

Watch

• Tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area.
• A watch is issued up to 48 hours in advance of tropical storm force winds.

Warning

• Tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area.
• A warning is issued up to 36 hours in advance of onset of tropical storm force winds.

Hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force. Watches and warnings are issued in advance of onset of tropical storm force winds, 39 to 73 miles per hour.

Storm Surge Alerts

Storm surge is the abnormal rise in coastal water levels generated by a storm's winds. It is the amount of additional water generated from a storm, on top of regular tidal fluctuations.¹⁵⁵

• Storm Surge Watch / Warning: Possibility / danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland, generally within 48 / 36 hours.

Source: Weather.gov

Comparison of storm surge flooding to a nice weather day

Understanding Storm Surge Flooding

Storm surge flooding is often the greatest threat to life and property and directly accounts for about half of the deaths associated with tropical storms and hurricanes in the U.S. NOAA coastal flood forecasts are expressed as feet above ground level to best account for variations in land elevation and features, and to focus on potential impacts.

A storm surge pushes ocean water higher than the normal high tide mark, resulting in normally dry ground being inundated.

Nice Weather Day

In the case of a normal high tide, areas above the usual high tide mark remain dry.

Tropical Cyclone Impacts

These advisories, watches, and warnings are issued to help safeguard lives and property. Timely communication allows people to take necessary protective actions, such as securing windows, gathering supplies, and evacuating if needed. While not every storm makes landfall, a single storm can still result in significant impacts.

Flooding is a major impact hazard for both coastal and inland areas. Coastal flooding occurs as storm surge pushes ocean water onto normally dry land, while inland flooding occurs with heavy rainfall. These flooding scenarios can cause flash flooding, where a large amount of water rapidly inundates dry land, and can be deadly and destructive. Inland flooding can be an overlooked hazard of tropical systems, but recent storms have had record-breaking rainfall leading to evacuations and water rescues.

Tropical systems are defined by their sustained wind speeds, which can cause dangerous to catastrophic damage. In addition to knocking down trees and powerlines, the strongest winds can carry heavy objects and tear down buildings.

Tornadoes can also develop within tropical systems, adding another layer of danger to these already powerful storms. These tornadoes often form quickly, sometimes with little warning, as rainbands spiral inland from the main system. Tornadoes often form from the outer rain bands of a hurricane, especially in the right-front quadrant as the storm approaches or moves over land. Although they are typically weaker than those formed in other severe weather events, they can still cause significant localized damage to homes, trees, and power lines. Their sudden and scattered nature makes them especially hazardous, as they can strike areas that may not be experiencing the strongest winds from the system itself.

Tropical systems that remain offshore can still pose significant hazards to coastal areas, even without making landfall. These storms can generate powerful waves that lead to rough surf and dangerous swimming conditions along the shoreline. One of the most serious risks is the formation of rip currents—strong, fast-moving channels of water that can pull swimmers away from the beach and into deeper water. These conditions can persist for days as the system moves through the region, making it important for people to stay informed and exercise caution near the coast, even when skies may appear calm.

It is important to monitor forecasts closely and follow the guidance of local officials, as conditions can deteriorate rapidly. Tropical systems can affect large regions—often spanning multiple states—disrupting air travel, businesses, and daily life. Recovery can be slow, with damaged infrastructure taking months or even longer to rebuild. Impacts to agriculture may also lead to higher food prices. Ultimately, these storms can affect every part of a community, from homes and schools to businesses and essential services. Impacts remain after the storm has passed, such as unsafe roads, downed power lines, unsafe drinking water, and mold in homes.

How Hurricanes Are Changing with Climate Change

Although natural variability dominates year-to-year hurricane activity, observational and modeling evidence supports several climate-driven changes:

• Higher peak intensities and a greater proportion of major (Category 3–5) hurricanes as warmer sea-surface temperatures provide more energy for storm development.¹⁵⁶
• Increased rainfall rates, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship—warmer air holds roughly 7% more moisture per °C of warming—leading to heavier precipitation in tropical systems.¹⁵⁷
• Higher storm surge due to rising sea levels, regardless of changes in storm intensity. The Mid-Atlantic experiences some of the highest rates of relative sea-level rise on the U.S. coast due to land subsidence, amplifying coastal flood risk from any given storm.¹⁵⁸
• More frequent rapid intensification events, which complicate forecasting and emergency response and can leave coastal communities with less time to prepare, may be occurring.¹⁵⁹

Projections remain uncertain for the total number of Atlantic storms and for changes in storm tracks. These uncertainties stem from the complex interplay between warming oceans, changes in vertical wind shear, Saharan dust transport, and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, as well as the limited resolution of global climate models for simulating individual storms. ¹⁶⁰ Most climate models project a stable or slightly decreasing total number of tropical cyclones globally, but a higher proportion reaching major hurricane status, meaning the strongest, most damaging storms are likely to become more common even if overall storm counts do not rise.

For the Mid-Atlantic, the combination of intensifying storms, heavier rainfall, and rising seas suggests that future tropical systems are likely to produce greater impacts than comparable storms in the past, even without an increase in storm frequency.

Resources for Preparedness

• NWS Hurricane Safety Tips & Resources: weather.gov/safety/hurricane
• NWS Flood Safety: weather.gov/safety/flood
• NWS Tornado Safety: weather.gov/safety/tornado
• NHC Hurricane Preparedness Week: nhc.noaa.gov/prepare
• Ready.gov Hurricanes: ready.gov/hurricanes
• MARISA Climate Summaries: for additional regional context, including the Fall 2019 and Fall 2020 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Climate Impacts Summaries.