Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2023

Highlights

  • Average temperatures for this spring were 0-2 degrees F above normal for the majority of the region. This is cooler than what was observed for the winter season, but similar to what was observed from spring 2021 to fall 2022.
  • The majority of the region experienced drier than normal conditions (50–75 percent of normal precipitation).
  • The region largely experienced less than normal amounts of snow during the 2022–2023 snow season (October–May), with the five sites recording their least snowy season on record all seeing less than 0.5 inches of snowfall.
  • The timing of the first hot day, historically occuring around mid-April, is projected to fall earlier in the year. Under a high emissions future, the southern half of the Mid-Atlantic could begin experiencing days above 95 degrees F in early May.

View all climate summaries

This summary focuses on weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region for the spring 2023 season. The spring season is defined as the months of March, April, and May. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Figure 1. MARISA Mid-Atlantic Region

A map of the Mid-Atlantic regional highlighting the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

A map showing the Mid-Atlantic region.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Winter Weather

From March 13 to 14, a nor'easter dropped snow on portions of central New York where storm snow totals reached 24 inches at some sites.1 The majority of the impacts, such as downed trees and power outages, were experienced outside of the watershed and into New England.2,3 Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania received up to 9 inches, while a few higher elevation locations in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia saw as much as 7 inches of snow.4 The rest of the watershed saw little, if any, snowfall.5 Wind gusts of 35 miles per hour (mph) up to 56 mph were recorded across the watershed (e.g., 53 mph in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, 52 mph at Lancaster Airport, Pennsylvania, 56 mph at Mifflin County Airport, Pennsylvania).6

As an upper-level low that caused significant rainfall across the watershed and a tornado in Virginia Beach, Virginia, as discussed in the Severe Weather section below, slowly moved away from the watershed during the first few days of May, an unusual snow event took place in some higher-elevation locations of eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and western Virginia, with some sites seeing several inches of snow.7

Severe Weather

On April 1, portions of the watershed saw tornadoes and damaging winds.8 An Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale 3 tornado, with estimated peak wind speeds of up to 140 mph, traveled 14.3 miles across Sussex County, Delaware.9 The tornado was 0.4 miles wide at its largest, making it the state's widest tornado since 1950, according to the National Weather Service.10 It was also one of the top two strongest tornadoes on record in Delaware.11 A few homes were swept off their foundations and collapsed, while multiple other houses and buildings such as garages and barns were damaged, some substantially.12 The tornado also caused significant tree damage and downed power poles including a few steel high-tension poles.13 There was one fatality, which was Delaware's third tornado-related death since 1950.14 Tornadoes are not common in Delaware, the most the state has seen in a single year is six tornadoes, in 1992 and 2020.15 In Cecil County, Maryland, an EF-1 tornado with estimated peak wind speeds of up to 90 mph downed trees, snapped power poles, and damaged roofs and siding.16 Elsewhere in the watershed, thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 68 mph were reported and caused damage to buildings and trees.17,18

From April 23 to May 4, an upper-level low pressure system stalled near the watershed, bringing persistent below-normal temperatures and multiple rounds of precipitation.19 The period from April 28 through May 1 was particularly wet, with the greatest rainfall totals in that timeframe ranging from 3 to 5 inches.20 On April 30, Scranton, Pennsylvania had its wettest April day on record with 3.06 inches of rain, while Binghamton, New York saw 2.18 inches of rain, making it the site's fifth wettest April day.21 While dry conditions from earlier in the season generally limited impacts, there were some road closures due to flooding in a few areas such as central Virginia.22

On April 30, one of the storms produced an EF-3 tornado, with estimated peak wind speeds of up to 145 mph, that traveled 4.5 miles across Virginia Beach, Virginia.23 The tornado damaged more than 100 homes, shifting some off their foundations and removing roofs and walls of others, causing millions of dollars in damage (Figure 2).24 On May 1, the same storm system set a record-low sea level pressure for May in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.25

Multiple times during the month of May, smoke from wildfires burning in western Canada brought hazy skies to the watershed.26

Figure 2. Tornado Damage in Haversham Close in Virginia Beach, Virginia from April 30, 2023

SOURCE: NWS Storm Survey Photos, https://www.weather.gov/akq/april302023_tornado

Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor from March 7 showed a small area of moderate drought on the Delmarva Peninsula and pockets of abnormal dryness in eastern Virginia, southern Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania.27 During March, southern portions of the watershed experienced increasing precipitation deficits, below-normal streamflow and groundwater levels, and reduced soil moisture.28 Moderate drought was introduced or expanded in portions of Virginia and Maryland, while abnormal dryness expanded to include nearly two-thirds of Virginia, more than half of Maryland, and much of West Virginia's eastern panhandle, and parts of southern Pennsylvania.29

Similarly dry conditions persisted throughout much of April.30 By April 25, moderate drought encompassed nearly a third of Virginia, nearly two-thirds of Maryland, and portions of eastern West Virginia, southern Pennsylvania, and southern Delaware.31 Abnormal dryness also expanded in these states.32 The drier-than-normal conditions created an increased risk of wildfires, which led West Virginia to implement a week-long ban on all outdoor burning from April 17–24.33,34 The dry conditions also likely played a role in fueling a wildfire in Baltimore County, Maryland that burned over 300 acres.35,36 Abundant rainfall during the last few days of April erased much of the moderate drought and helped contract abnormal dryness across the watershed.37 The U.S. Drought Monitor from May 2 showed moderate drought covered only 8 percent of Maryland, 4 percent of Virginia, and 1 percent of West Virginia.38

During May, beneficial rainfall allowed moderate drought to contract in western Virginia and the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula and abnormal dryness to shrink in coverage in those areas plus central Virginia, eastern West Virginia, and western Maryland.39 Elsewhere in the watershed, May was unusually dry, leading to the expansion of moderate drought in northern Virginia, northern/central Maryland, and eastern Pennsylvania and the expansion of abnormal dryness in northern/eastern Maryland, most of Pennsylvania, and central New York.40

The U.S. Drought Monitor from May 30 showed 93 percent of Pennsylvania and 46 percent of Maryland as abnormally dry.41 The dry conditions in Pennsylvania increased the risk of brush fires and led to slowed crop growth, with some growers needing to rely on irrigation to try to preserve their crops.42,43

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 3 shows the spring 2023 average temperature compared with the climate normal, which is defined as the average spring temperature from 1991 to 2020.44 The figure shows that the majority of the region experienced temperatures from 0-2 degrees F above normal. This is consistent with the temperature departures seen from winter 2020-2021 through fall 2022. Temperature departures in those seasons were primarily within 2 degrees F of normal. This is cooler than the temperature departures from the winter season, which was the warmest season compared to normal temperatures since the start of the MARISA climate summary series in 2018.

Figure 3. March 1 – May 31, 2023 Departure from Normal Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)

A heat map showing departure from normal temperature in the Mid-Atlantic region from March to May, 2023

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the spring season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for spring compared with the same station's spring 2023 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at http://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Overall, the 2023 spring season was among the top 10 warmest springs on record for Dulles Airport, Virginia and Binghamton, New York. Four additional sites experienced spring temperatures that ranked among their top 20 on record (Table 1).

Additional temperature-related events are discussed in the Monthly Temperature Rankings section below.

Table 1. Spring Season (March – June) Temperature Rankings

Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 55.9 54.4 7
Binghamton, NY 46.8 44.4 9
Charlottesville, VA 58.8 57.9 11
Washington National, DC 58.7 57.7 12
Scranton, PA 51.0 49.8 13
Baltimore, MD 56.6 54.6 14

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

Few temperature records were set during the month of March. In fact, only one site in the watershed experienced temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest on record—Dulles Airport, Virginia.

In contrast, April saw warmer temperatures and several sites experienced Aprils that ranked in their top 20 warmest on record, including Binghamton, New York and Salisbury, Maryland which each saw their second warmest Aprils. The rankings for the other sites are shown in Table 2.

On April 13 and 14 the northern portions of the watershed experienced unusually mild temperatures when highs reached the 80s and 90s.45 High temperatures on these days in Binghamton, New York and Scranton, Pennsylvania ranked among their five warmest on record for April.46 Additionally, Scranton and Williamsport, Pennsylvania saw their earliest occurrence of a day with a high of at least 90 degrees F.47 For Scranton, Pennsylvania, this was only the sixth April since 1901 to record a 90-degree day.48

Low temperatures on May 18 were in the 20s and low 30s in parts of central New York and Pennsylvania, which was as much as 20 degrees F colder than normal.49 Scranton, Pennsylvania recorded a low temperature of 30 degrees F, tying for its 10th coldest May temperature on record.50 There was frost damage to grape vines in these areas, the full extent of the damage has not fully been assessed.51

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and temperatures are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Monthly Temperature Rankings

March Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 46.4 44.2 11
April Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Binghamton, NY 50.9 44.6 2
Salisbury, MD 59.7 55.1 2
Baltimore, MD 60.1 55.5 3
Dulles Airport, VA 59.2 55.0 3
Scranton, PA 55.0 50.2 3
Washington National, DC 62.1 58.2 3
Harrisburg, PA 57.0 53.2 4
Norfolk, VA 62.9 60.1 6
Richmond, VA 61.8 58.4 6
Williamsport, PA 54.6 50.3 6
Charlottesville, VA 61.6 58.5 7
Lynchburg, VA 59.9 56.1 10
May Temperature Records (coolest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (coolest)
Martinsburg, WV 58.3 62.5 8

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for the spring season differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average spring precipitation from 1991–2020. Almost the entire region experienced below normal amounts of precipitation, with significant portions of Virginia, and Pennsylvania, and most of Maryland seeing 50-75 percent of normal precipitation. The region has not seen a similarly dry season since the winter of 2021-2022.

Figure 4. March 1 – May 31, 2023 Percentage of Normal Precipitation

A heat map showing departure from normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region for March to May, 2023. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Orange and red shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Yellow and green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for spring compared with the same station's spring 2023 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at http://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Overall, the spring 2023 season was drier than normal, with Martinsburg, West Virginia and Dulles Airport, Virginia seeing their third driest spring on record. Five additional sites experienced spring precipitation that ranked in their top 20 driest on record (Table 3).

Table 3. Spring Season (March - May) Precipitation Rankings

Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Martinsburg, WV 5.00 10.83 3
Dulles Airport, VA 6.35 11.69 3
Baltimore, MD 6.16 11.25 7
Binghamton, NY 7.69 10.46 13
Washington National, DC 6.49 10.65 13
Charlottesville, VA 6.93 10.88 14
Williamsport, PA 7.18 10.61 15

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

March ranked among the top 20 driest Marches on record for eight sites, while wetter conditions in April caused five sites to see months that ranked in their top 20 wettest Aprils on record. Much of the precipitation at these sites arrived in the last few days of the month. For example, Scranton, Pennsylvania had its wettest April day on record on April 30 when it received 3.06 inches of rain.52 Binghamton, New York saw 2.18 inches of rain on April 30, making it the site's fifth wettest April day.53 May was record dry for three sites (Table 4), these sites also had their greatest number of May days with no measurable precipitation, ranging from 26-28 days.54

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of precipitation are shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Monthly Precipitation Rankings

March Precipitation Records (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Salisbury, MD 1.36 4.17 5
Richmond, VA 1.24 4.0 8
Charlottesville, VA 1.05 3.54 9
Dulles Airport, VA 1.57 3.50 9
Baltimore, MD 1.49 4.01 13
Washington National, DC 1.60 3.50 16
Lynchburg, VA 1.67 3.76 17
Norfolk, VA 2.0 3.69 19
March Precipitation Records (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked in their top 20 wettest Marches on record.
April Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked in their top 20 driest Aprils on record.
April Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Harrisburg, PA 5.18 3.55 10
Binghamton, NY 4.28 3.63 17
Scranton, PA 4.53 3.26 17
Lynchburg, VA 4.79 3.45 18
Salisbury, MD 4.94 3.42 18
May Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Harrisburg, PA 0.19 3.83 1
Williamsport, PA 0.44 3.86 1
Binghamton, NY 0.71 3.78 1
Baltimore, MD 0.55 3.85 3
Scranton, PA 0.91 3.26 3
Dulles Airport, VA 1.48 4.72 5
Martinsburg, WV 1.19 4.05 8
Washington National, DC 1.34 3.94 9
Charlottesville, VA 1.68 4.17 19
May Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked in their top 20 wettest Mays on record.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

The snow season (October-May) featured below-normal snowfall.55 Five sites experienced their least snowy season on record, all seeing less than 0.5 inches of snowfall.56

Table 5. Spring Season (March–May) Snowfall Rankings

Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank
No sites experienced snowfall that ranked in their top 20 snowiest or least snowy springs on record

Table 6. Snow Season (October-May) Snowfall Rankings

Station Name Snowfall (inches) Normal Snowfall (inches) Rank (least snowy)
Baltimore, MD 0.2 19.3 1
Dulles Airport, VA 0.4 21.0 1
Norfolk, VA trace 6.2 1
Richmond, VA trace 8.8 1
Salisbury, MD trace 8.0 1
Harrisburg, PA 5.9 29.9 2
Lynchburg, VA 0.5 11.6 3
Washington National, DC 0.4 13.7 3
Scranton, PA 21.3 45.1 7
Binghamton, NY 61.5 86.5 9
Williamsport, PA 19.9 35.8 14

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Despite the snowfall from the March 13-14 nor-easter discussed in Part 1, no sites set records for snowiest months for the month of March. Binghamton, New York saw its 9th least snowy April on record.57 No other spring month had snowfall that ranked among the 20 snowy or least snowy.

Part 3: Summer 2023 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of May 18, 2023 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 33-50-percent chance of above normal temperatures for the inland portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and a 50-60 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the coastal portions of the region for June, July, and August 2023.58 This forecasts that the Mid-Atlantic is leaning towards having a warmer than normal summer season for the inland regions and that we will likely see above average temperatures along the coast.59 The precipitation forecast shows an 33-40 percent chance of wetter than normal conditions for the region for the same period, which means that the forecast is leaning towards having a wetter than normal summer season.60

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of May 31, 2023 the Outlook indicates that drought conditions are likely to dissipate during the 2023 summer season in portions of southern Maryland and eastern West Virginia.61 Drought is not likely in the rest of the region.

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has an El Niño Advisory active as of June 8, 2023, with an 84 percent chance of a moderate El Niño and a 56 percent change of a strong El Niño.62 For the Mid-Atlantic, El Niño generally produces wetter winter weather, but does not generally predict an above or below normal winter for temperatures across the region.63 In the D.C. and Baltimore areas, El Niño has produced warmer, wetter and snowier than normal winters.64

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.65 However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of June 1, 2023, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted a near-average 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season with 15 named storms and 7 hurricanes and a 21 percent chance of at least one major hurricane (category 3–5) making landfall on the U.S. east coast.66 NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which releases outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season at the close of each spring season, is forecasting a 40 percent chance of an near-normal 2023 season.67 For the June 1 to November 30 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting 12–17 named storms, out of which 5–9 could become hurricanes and 1–4 of those could become major hurricanes, meaning that they would be category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph.68 A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).69

Part 4: Timing of First Hot Day

This section details an analysis of climate projections derived from global climate model output. In this season's edition, we focus on the timing of the first hot day (i.e., days with temperatures at or above 85 degrees F). In the Mid-Atlantic, the first day ith temperatures at or above 85 degrees F generally occurs in late March to mid-April in the southern portions of the region and as late as mid-June at higher elevations or further north. The timing of the first hot day has important implications for public health, electricity demand, agriculture, among other sectors. The earlier hot days occur, the longer and warmer spring, summer and fall temperatures may be. This section provides an analysis of the timing of the first hot day, defined as days with maximum temperatures at or above 85, 90, or 95 degrees F. It includes the timing of the first hot day for the climate normal, as well as for future periods.

Key Findings

  • The timing of the first hot day is projected to occur earlier in the year under both emissions scenarios.
  • Under a high emissions future, by the end of the century, much of the southern portion of the Mid-Atlantic could regularly see days above 85 degrees F in late March and days at or above 95 degress F in early May.

Figure 5. Timing of First Hot Day

How to Use the Tool

Selecting Temperature Thresholds, Time Periods and Future Emissions Scenarios Use the filters to the right of the maps to adjust the temperature threshold and the 30-year time period. Users can also select the future emissions scenario (Low or High Emissions).Note that some locations are not projected to experience any days above 90 and/or 95 degree F. In these cases, the map does not show a value.

Viewing Data for a State or County You can use the State and County filters to the right of the table to have the plot show data for a particular location of interest.

Technical Notes

Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) is a downscaled climate data product available at 1/16-degree (6-km) resolution over the continental United States. LOCA data sets70 include the 32 climate models available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive, for two future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories: a low emissions future, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5;71 and a high-emissions future, RCP 8.5.72 For this study, we used LOCA data over the Chesapeake Bay watershed from 1991–2100 (or 2099 for some models). Access LOCA datasets and learn more about the methodology.

Data were processed by the Northeast Regional Climate Center to calculate the number of days per year with low temperatures at the given thresholds.

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The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook is a quarterly series produced by the MARISA program, a collaboration funded by NOAA through the RAND Corporation and researchers at Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Morgan State University, and Carnegie Mellon University. This series is specifically designed to support policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic by serving as a data and information resource that is tailored to the region. It draws information from regional climate centers, news and weather information, and regional-specific climate data sets. Projections of weather and climate variability and change in the Mid-Atlantic region come from the best available scientific information. For any questions or comments, please contact Krista Romita Grocholski at Krista_Romita_Grocholski@rand.org.

This edition of the MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook was authored by Michelle E. Miro (RAND Corporation), Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND Corporation), Jessica Spaccio (Cornell University), Samantha Borisoff (Cornell University), and Arthur T. DeGaetano (Cornell University).

Citation: Miro, Michelle E., Krista Romita Grocholski, Jessica Spaccio, Samantha Borisoff, and Arthur T. DeGaetano, Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2023. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023.

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Footnotes

  1. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/pastWinterMarch142023 Return to text ⤴

  2. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/winter-storm-noreaster-snow-forecast.html Return to text ⤴

  3. https://www.weather.gov/aly/March_13-15_2023_Noreaster Return to text ⤴

  4. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202303150738 Return to text ⤴

  5. https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1636023221395881985/photo/1 Return to text ⤴

  6. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=202303150554 Return to text ⤴

  7. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202305031230 Return to text ⤴

  8. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230401_rpts.html Return to text ⤴

  9. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSPHI&e=202304071602 Return to text ⤴

  10. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSPHI&e=202304071602 Return to text ⤴

  11. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/04/delaware-tornado-bridgeville-ef3-widest/ Return to text ⤴

  12. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSPHI&e=202304071602 Return to text ⤴

  13. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSPHI&e=202304071602 Return to text ⤴

  14. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/eventdetails.jsp?id=9985168 Return to text ⤴

  15. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/04/delaware-tornado-bridgeville-ef3-widest/ Return to text ⤴

  16. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202304022258 Return to text ⤴

  17. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202304030349 Return to text ⤴

  18. https://www.wtaj.com/news/local-news/photos-damage-caused-by-severe-weather-in-central-pennsylvania/ Return to text ⤴

  19. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=202304301914 Return to text ⤴

  20. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSPHI&e=202305011438 Return to text ⤴

  21. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  22. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202304291017 Return to text ⤴

  23. https://www.weather.gov/akq/april302023_tornado Return to text ⤴

  24. https://www.weather.gov/akq/april302023_tornado Return to text ⤴

  25. https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1653153880207953920 Return to text ⤴

  26. https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-hazy-skies-smoke-from-wildfires-in-canada/43849327 Return to text ⤴

  27. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230307/20230307_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  28. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20230328.html Return to text ⤴

  29. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230404/20230404_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  30. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230425/20230425_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  31. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230425/20230425_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  32. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230425/20230425_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  33. https://wtop.com/maryland/2023/04/marylanders-should-heed-springs-increased-risk-for-forest-fires-officials-say/ Return to text ⤴

  34. https://www.wowktv.com/news/west-virginia/west-virginia-governor-issues-burn-ban-proclamation/ Return to text ⤴

  35. https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/more-than-two-dozen-homes-reisterstown-brush-fire-baltimore-county-owings-mills-unprecedented-evacuated/ Return to text ⤴

  36. https://www.baltimorecountymd.gov/departments/fire/news/2023/04/05/700-acres-burned-in-unprecedented-wildland-fire-in-owings-mills Return to text ⤴

  37. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230502/20230502_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  38. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230502/20230502_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  39. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230530/20230530_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  40. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230530/20230530_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  41. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230530/20230530_usdm.png Return to text ⤴

  42. https://www.wgal.com/article/south-central-pennsylvania-dry-weather-increases-fire-risk/44043352 Return to text ⤴

  43. https://www.wgal.com/article/south-central-pennsylvania-farmers-work-to-keep-crops-alive-despite-lack-of-rain/44042363 Return to text ⤴

  44. Climate normals, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are "three-decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and precipitation." The latest climate normal released by NOAA is the 1991–2020 average. See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals Return to text ⤴

  45. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/12/record-warmth-fire-weather-lower48/ Return to text ⤴

  46. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  47. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  48. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  49. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  50. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  51. https://www.pennlive.com/food/2023/05/east-coast-wineries-assessing-losses-after-late-frost-turns-may-morning-into-a-bad-dream.html Return to text ⤴

  52. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  53. https://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  54. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/06/01/index.html Return to text ⤴

  55. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/06/01/index.html Return to text ⤴

  56. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/06/01/index.html Return to text ⤴

  57. We only include records for least snowy months in the spring season for sites that received a measurable amount of snowfall. This is due to the large number of spring months where no measurable snowfall is recorded. Return to text ⤴

  58. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴

  59. For more information on how NOAA defines at, above or below normal and determines percent chances, see: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php Return to text ⤴

  60. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Return to text ⤴

  61. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png Return to text ⤴

  62. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Return to text ⤴

  63. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/ENSO_CPC_Presentation.pdf Return to text ⤴

  64. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_elnino Return to text ⤴

  65. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Return to text ⤴

  66. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06-pressrelease.pdf Return to text ⤴

  67. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook Return to text ⤴

  68. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook Return to text ⤴

  69. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/average-atlantic-hurricane-season-to-reflect-more-storms Return to text ⤴

  70. https://loca.ucsd.edu/ Return to text ⤴

  71. More information on RCP 4.5 can be found in: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4 Return to text ⤴

  72. More information on RCP 8.5 can be found in: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y Return to text ⤴

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