Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook
Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Fall 2023
Highlights
- Average temperatures for this fall season were 0–2 degrees above normal for the majority of the region. This is similar to observed average temperatures from spring 2021 through fall 2022.
- The region largely experienced drier than normal conditions, with some areas in Virginia experiencing 25–50 percent of normal precipitation.
- Drought conditions peaked in the region in the November 21 U.S. Drought Monitor, which showed 76 percent of Virginia in drought, with 40 percent of the state in severe drought and 5 percent in extreme drought.
- Virginia had its most active fire season since 2016, seeing 137 fires between October 15 and November 20.
- When looking at historical heat index data, we found that in the last decade the region has seen three to five times more days with heat index values above the Extreme Caution classification (93–103 degrees F) compared with the 1981–1990 time period. These heat indices are at levels at which heat stroke, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible.
This summary focuses on fall weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region. The fall season is defined as the months of September, October, and November. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.
Figure 1. MARISA Mid-Atlantic Region
A map showing the Mid-Atlantic region.
Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts
Severe Weather
Severe weather or flash flooding occurred repeatedly in the Chesapeake Bay watershed from September 7–13.1 On September 9, a flash flood event occurred across Lackawanna and Luzerne counties in northeastern Pennsylvania washed out bridges and roads and caused millions of dollars in property damage.2,3 Despite evacuations and water rescues, the flash flooding also caused at least two deaths and a few injuries.4,5 From the late evening on September 12 into the early morning hours of September 13, flash flooding occurred in Baltimore, Maryland, and a few surrounding areas.6 A Flash Flood Emergency was issued by the National Weather Service in Baltimore and vehicles were stranded in feet of floodwater. Multiple water rescues were performed in the area.7,8,9
Tropical Storms
In mid-September, Hurricane Lee paralleled the East Coast as it traveled across the Atlantic Ocean toward eventual landfall in western Nova Scotia.10 The storm produced high waves, rough surf, and rip currents along the Maryland and Virginia coasts.11
On September 22, Tropical Storm Ophelia formed along the southeast U.S. coast, making landfall in North Carolina on September 23. The storm weakened but nonetheless had significant impact as it moved inland and traveled across the Mid-Atlantic states on September 24.12,13 Wind gusts peaked in the 50-60 mph range, mostly in coastal parts of Virginia and Maryland, there were reports of downed trees and thousands of power outages in both states.14,15 The storm's greatest rainfall totals approached five inches in central Virginia, where numerous roads were closed.16 There was also moderate to major tidal flooding, with floodwaters closing roads and entering buildings in locations such as Annapolis and Crisfield, Maryland.17,18,19 In the Chesapeake Bay, several ports were shut down and vessel traffic was temporarily suspended south of the Bay Bridges.20,21 Ophelia's remnants then drifted off the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few days, merged with another storm, and moved out to sea.22 However, during that time, the remnants contributed to parts of the Chesapeake Bay watershed experiencing periods of cloudy skies, showers, cooler temperatures, and higher-than-usual water levels.23
Figure 2. Tidal Flooding in Chesapeake, Virginia, on September 23, 2023, following Tropical Storm Ophelia.
SOURCE: National Weather Service
Drought
The U.S. Drought Monitor from September 5 showed an area of moderate-to-severe drought extending from eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, and western/central Maryland into south-central Pennsylvania,24 with surrounding areas also experiencing abnormal dryness.25 As of September 5, around 62 percent of Virginia was in drought or abnormally dry.26 Precipitation was variable over the course of the month of September, with conditions improving in some areas but deteriorating in others.27 For instance, moderate drought eased in southern Pennsylvania and shrank in coverage in Maryland, but expanded southward in western Virginia and was introduced on the Delmarva peninsula.28 As of October 3, around 49 percent of Virginia was in drought or abnormally dry.29
Drought areas of eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, western/central Maryland, and south-central Pennsylvania experienced streamflow and/or groundwater levels that were below normal, with multiple water suppliers asking customers to voluntarily conserve water.30 A few suppliers implemented mandatory restrictions, including the town of Front Royal, Virginia, which gets its water from the Shenandoah River, and banned all outdoor watering.31 In an effort to conserve water, the town of Warrenton, Virginia, flushed its water system less frequently, resulting in complaints of bad-smelling water.32
Daily drought monitoring operations were in place through much of September along the Potomac River upstream from Washington, D.C., with low water levels causing boat tours to be cancelled temporarily along the historic Chesapeake and Ohio (C&O) Canal.33 Low water levels along the Shenandoah River resulted in a 50 percent reduction in bookings for one outdoor adventure company, as well as revenue losses of up to $20,000 for a hydroelectric dam in Woodstock, Virginia, which had to shut down power generation at times.34,35 All streams in Shenandoah National Park were closed to fishing because low water levels and heat stressed fish populations.36
Impacts on fire safety and prevention and agriculture also occurred due to drier than normal conditions for much of the basin in September. In south-central Pennsylvania, some ponds and streams that firefighters use to fight fires in rural areas dried up or ran low.37 Due to high fire danger, burn bans were enacted in multiple Virginia counties including Rockingham, Frederick, and Warren.38,39 In western Virginia, some farmers had to purchase feed for their cattle earlier than usual due to dried-up pastures, while others reported losses of crops such as pumpkins and tree saplings.40,41 Crops such as apples and corn were harvested earlier than usual in south-central Pennsylvania due to dry conditions,42,43 and drought stress contributed to leaves changing colors prematurely in parts of northern Virginia.44
October was drier than normal for much of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, particularly from southern Pennsylvania into Maryland and Virginia.45 During the month, severe and moderate drought expanded southward and slightly eastward to include portions of western, northern, and central Virginia, while abnormal dryness encompassed much of the rest of the state.46 The U.S. Drought Monitor from October 31 showed that 90 percent of Virginia was experiencing drought or abnormal dryness.47 Additionally, abnormal dryness expanded in Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania.48
Streamflow and groundwater levels continued to be record low or much below normal in south-central Pennsylvania, central Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and portions of Virginia, causing several water suppliers to encourage voluntary water conservation efforts.49 Mandatory water restrictions remained in place or were enacted for a few locations including Lock Haven, Pennsylvania, which declared a Drought Emergency, as well as Front Royal, Virginia.50,51 Daily drought monitoring was reinstated along the Potomac River upstream from Washington, D.C., due to reduced streamflow.52 Water quality was better than usual along the Shenandoah River in western Virginia, which was attributed to reduced runoff.53
Growers in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley noted that while grape yields were down, the dry conditions led to a higher sugar concentration in the existing grapes, which are expected to make excellent wines.54 At some farms in western and northern Virginia, pumpkins were smaller than usual, or farmers relied on irrigation to help the pumpkins grow larger.55,56 Meanwhile, a grower in northern Virginia remarked that their apples were ripening and dropping off the trees faster than normal due to drought stress.57 The dry conditions also contributed to an increased wildfire risk in Virginia.58
The first 20 days of November were remarkably dry, with many areas seeing less than 0.50 inches of precipitation.59 Drought conditions intensified and expanded during this time frame, with extreme drought introduced in western Virginia and severe and/or moderate drought extending across much of Virginia and into portions of eastern West Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania.60 Abnormal dryness also expanded in these areas plus Delaware and a portion of central New York.61 Conditions peaked in the November 21 U.S. Drought Monitor, which showed more than half of Maryland in drought and 76 percent of Virginia in drought, including 40 percent of the state in severe drought and 5 percent in extreme drought.62,63
A notable rainfall event from November 21 and 22 eased extreme drought in Virginia, chipped away at moderate drought and abnormal dryness in Maryland, and generally paused the expansion of drought and dryness across the watershed.64
Record low or much below normal streamflow and/or groundwater levels persisted in south-central Pennsylvania, parts of Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and portions of Virginia, with voluntary water conservation efforts encouraged in those same areas.65 Mandatory restrictions were implemented or continued in parts of Maryland including Emmitsburg, in Pennsylvania including York County, and in Virginia including Berryville and Round Hill.66,67,68,69 Purcellville, Virginia, brought two additional wells online and purchased a filtration system for a third well to help supplement its drought-impacted water supply.70
In early November, the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin issued a special Water Supply Outlook due to ongoing dry conditions in the watershed.71 Daily drought monitoring operations continued along the Potomac River through much of November.72
Wildfire
Dry conditions led to an increased fire risk during the fall fire season, causing multiple counties in Virginia, as well as Shenandoah National Park, to initiate burn bans.73,74,75 During the fall season, there were hundreds of wildfires along the East Coast, fueled in part by drought and abnormally dry conditions.76 Between October 15 and November 20, Virginia saw 137 fires, making it the state's most active fall fire season since 2016 (Figure 3).77 Several of those fires grew quite large, including the Matt's Creek Fire, which scorched over 11,000 acres in Bedford County, and the Quaker Run Fire that charred nearly 4,000 acres in Madison County.78,79 Smoke from the wildfires, particularly the Matt's Creek Fire in mid-November, led to poor air quality in an area from western Virginia to southern Pennsylvania, which caused some school closures in central Virginia.80,81 The rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions experienced hazy skies and somewhat reduced air quality due to the fires.82,83,84
Figure 3. U.S. Forest Service helicopter dropping water on the Quaker Run Wildfire in Madison County, Virginia, November 5, 2023.
SOURCE: Virgina Department of Forestry
Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation
Temperature
Figure 4 shows the fall 2023 average temperature compared with the climate normal—i.e., the average seasonal temperature from 1991 to 2020.85 This figure shows that the majority of the Mid-Atlantic region experienced above normal temperatures, with portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia experiencing temperatures between 2 and 3 degrees warmer than normal. Only a few isolated locations, such as a small area southeast of Blacksburg, Virginia experienced below normal temperatures. This represents a return to above-normal temperatures, which we had seen in all other seasonal climate summaries since 2018 except for the summer 2023 season.
Figure 4. September 1 – November 30, 2023 Departure from Normal Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)
SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.
NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the fall season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for fall compared with the same station's fall 2023 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.
As shown in Table 1, eight sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced average fall temperatures that ranked among the top 20 warmest on record. Additional temperature-related events are discussed in the Monthly Temperature Rankings section below.
Table 1. Fall Season (September–November) Temperature Rankings
| Station Name | Avg. Temp (degrees F) | Normal Temp (degrees F) | Rank (warmest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binghamton, NY | 51.5 | 48.9 | 5 |
| Dulles Airport, VA | 59.2 | 57.1 | 6 |
| Charlottesville, VA | 60.8 | 59.6 | 13 |
| Harrisburg, PA | 57.6 | 56.2 | 15 |
| Washington National, DC | 62.0 | 61.0 | 15 |
| Richmond, VA | 61.8 | 60.2 | 16 |
| Williamsport, PA | 54.9 | 53.2 | 17 |
| Scranton, PA | 54.0 | 53.5 | 18 |
SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.
Monthly Temperature Rankings
From September 3 to 7 temperatures were unusually mild, with highs generally ranging from 80 degreed F to 100 degrees F and lows in the 60s and 70s.86 Dulles Airport saw its hottest September temperature on record with a high of 100 degrees F on September 6.87 The high and/or low temperatures at several other sites ranked among the 10 warmest for September, for multiple days in some cases.88 For instance, Baltimore, Maryland, saw five days during this event that ranked among its 10 warmest high temperatures for September.89 Overall, this September ranked among the 20 warmest months of September for four sites (Table 2).
On October 3 and 4, Binghamton, New York, had a high temperature of 82 degrees F, which ranked as the site's second warmest October high temperature on record.90 Scranton, Pennsylvania, recorded a low temperature of 66 degrees F on October 6, tying its 10th warmest low for October on record.91 Overall, this October ranked among the 20 warmest months of October on record for eight sites. This included Binghamton, NY, and Dulles Airport, Virginia, which both experienced their seventh warmest months of October on record (Table 2).
On November 9, Dulles Airport, Virginia, had a high temperature of 81 degrees F, which ranked as the site's fifth warmest high temperature for November on record. 92
No sites experienced temperatures that ranked in their top 20 coolest months of September or October on record, and in November, no sites experienced temperatures that ranked in either their top 20 coolest or warmest months of November on record.
Table 2. Monthly Temperature Rankings
| September Temperature Rankings (warmest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Avg. Temp (degrees F) | Normal Temp (degrees F) | Rank (warmest) |
| Dulles Airport, VA | 71.4 | 68.6 | 6 |
| Binghamton, NY | 62.7 | 60.0 | 11 |
| Salisbury, MD | 71.8 | 69.7 | 18 |
| Williamsport, PA | 66.8 | 64.7 | 18 |
| October Temperature Rankings (warmest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Avg. Temp (degrees F) | Normal Temp (degrees F) | Rank (warmest) |
| Binghampton, NY | 53.9 | 48.8 | 7 |
| Dulles Airport, VA | 60.2 | 56.6 | 7 |
| Harrisburg, PA | 59.0 | 55.8 | 12 |
| Richmond, VA | 62.9 | 60.0 | 12 |
| Scranton, PA | 56.1 | 53.2 | 13 |
| Washington National, D.C. | 63.1 | 60.8 | 13 |
| Charlottesville, VA | 61.9 | 59.3 | 16 |
| Williamsport, PA | 56.5 | 53.0 | 16 |
| November Temperature Rankings | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Avg. Temp (degrees F) | Normal Temp (degrees F) | Rank |
| No sites experienced temperatures that ranked in the top 20 warmest or coolest months of November. | |||
Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.
Precipitation
Figure 5 shows how the total precipitation for September 1 through November 30, 2023, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average fall precipitation from 1991–2020. Almost the entire Mid-Atlantic region experienced less than normal precipitation during the fall season. A few areas of Virginia even saw less than 50 percent of its normal amount of precipitation this season. Only a tiny portion of northeastern Pennsylvania saw more than 150 percent of normal precipitation.
Figure 5. September 1 – November 30, 2023 Percentage of Normal Precipitation
SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.
NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for fall compared with the same station's fall 2023 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.
As shown in Table 3, no sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced fall precipitation that ranked among its top 20 wettest or driest on record. Additional precipitation-related events are discussed in the Monthly Precipitation Rankings section below.
Table 3. Fall Season (September–November) Precipitation Rankings
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
No precipitation rankings were set in the fall season. |
|||
SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.
Monthly Precipitation Rankings
While no sites had precipitation amounts that ranked among their top 20 driest months of September on record, five sites had precipitation amounts that ranked among the 20 driest months of October on record (Table 4). Interestingly, Dulles Airport, Virginia, experienced its 12th wettest September on record prior to its fourth driest October on record. Scranton, Pennsylvania, experienced its 17th wettest September on record, and Binghamton, NY experienced its wettest October on record. Additional rankings for other sites are shown in Table 4.
Norfolk, Virginia, had its driest November 1–20 period on record with only a trace of precipitation.93 However, Norfolk received enough rain in the end of November to avoid having the month rank amongst its top 20 driest on record. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Dulles Airport, Virginia, received 2.31 inches and 2.15 inches of precipitation respectively on November 21, which became one of the 10 wettest days of November on record for both sites.94 Binghamton, New York did not experience a significant rainfall event in late November, and overall had its fifth driest November on record.
Table 4. Monthly Precipitation Rankings
| September Precipitation Rankings (driest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank (driest) |
| No sites experienced precipitation that ranked among the top 20 driest months of September on record. | |||
| September Precipitation Rankings (wettest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank (wettest) |
| Dulles Airport, VA | 6.65 | 3.94 | 12 |
| Scranton, PA | 6.11 | 4.15 | 17 |
| October Precipitation Rankings (driest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank (driest) |
| Dulles Airport, VA | 0.67 | 3.65 | 4 |
| Charlottesville, VA | 0.58 | 3.31 | 10 |
| Washington National, DC | 0.65 | 3.66 | 11 |
| Salisbury, MD | 1.46 | 4.15 | 17 |
| Norfolk, VA | 1.13 | 3.86 | 19 |
| October Precipitation Rankings (wettest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank (wettest) |
| Binghampton, NY | 4.16 | 3.76 | 19 |
| November Precipitation Rankings (driest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank (driest) |
| Binghamton, NY | 1.34 | 3.11 | 5 |
| November Precipitation Rankings (wettest) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Station Name | Precipitation (inches) | Normal Precipitation (inches) | Rank (wettest) |
| No sites experienced precipitation that ranked among the top 20 wettest months of November on record. | |||
Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.
Part 3: Winter 2023–2024 Outlook
Temperature and Precipitation
As of November 16, 2023, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 40–50-percent chance of above normal temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic region for the winter season (December, January, and February) 2023–2024.95 Only the southern two-thirds of Virginia is outside of this range, with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasting a 33–40-percent chance of above normal temperatures in that area.96 The precipitation forecast shows an equal chance of wetter than, drier than, or near-normal conditions for most of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.97 The easternmost portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, along with most of Maryland, northern and western Virginia are predicted to have a 33-40-percent chance of above normal precipitation for the winter season.98 A swath of Virginia has a 40–50 percent chance of above normal precipitation, and the southeastern-most portion of Virginia has a greater than 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation for the months of December, January, and February.99
Drought Incidence
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of November 30, 2023, the Outlook indicates that most of the region is not predicted to have worsening drought through February 29, 2024. 100 Drought is likely to remain but improve in western Virginia, with much of the rest of Virginia and Maryland forecasted to be out of drought completely.101
Climate Circulation Patterns
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has an El Niño advisory active as of November 9, 2023, with a 62 percent chance to continue through spring 2024.102 In addition, there is a greater than 55 percent chance a strong El Niño through the January-March 2024 time frame and a 35 percent chance that the November-January period will become an "historically strong" El Niño event.103 El Niño is a climate phenomenon that leads to weather changes globally and is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean.104 While this generally results in wetter winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic, weather impacts to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed can be difficult to predict as other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence winter weather in the region.105 The strength of an El Niño event relates to the likelihood of climate anomalies, such as wetter winter weather, but does not provide an indication of the magnitude of impacts.106
Part 4: Historical Changes in the Heat Index
The Heat Index is a combined measure of temperature and humidity that reflects how hot it feels to individuals. High Heat Index values can be dangerous to human health and serve as an important metric for setting policies or regulations that reduce exposure and protect public health. Table 5 shows four classifications of the Heat Index that represent levels at which human health can be impacted.
Table 5. Heat Index Classifications
| Classificiation | Heat Index | Effect on the Body |
|---|---|---|
| Caution | 80°F–90°F | Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity |
| Extreme Caution | 90°F–103°F | Heat stroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity |
| Danger | 103°F–124°F | Heat cramps or heat exhaustion likely, and heat stroke possible with prolonged esposure and/or physical activity |
| Extreme Danger | 125°F or higher | Heat stroke highly likely |
Source: National Weather Service
Key Findings
- The Mid-Atlantic region has seen two to thee times more days with heat index values above the Caution classification, when human health may be impacted with prolonged exposure, compared to 1981–1990.
- The region has also seen three to five times more days with heat index values above the Extreme Caution classification, at which heat stroke, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible.
- Much of Virginia has regularly experienced more than 100 days per year above the Extreme Caution classification, at which heat stroke, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible.
Figure 6. Days with High Heat Index Values
How to Use the Tool
Selecting Temperature Thresholds and Time Periods Use the filters to the right of the maps to adjust the Heat Index threshold and the 10-year time period.
Technical Notes
Heat Index values were calculated based on station data for air temperature and relative humidity using the Rothfusz equation employed by the National Weather Service.107
The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook is a quarterly series produced by the MARISA program, a collaboration funded by NOAA through the RAND Corporation and researchers at Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Morgan State University, and Carnegie Mellon University. This series is specifically designed to support policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic by serving as a data and information resource that is tailored to the region. It draws information from regional climate centers, news and weather information, and regional-specific climate data sets. Projections of weather and climate variability and change in the Mid-Atlantic region come from the best available scientific information. For any questions or comments, please contact Krista Romita Grocholski at Krista_Romita_Grocholski@rand.org.
This edition of the MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook was authored by Michelle E. Miro (RAND Corporation), Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND Corporation), Lena Easton-Calabria (RAND Corporation), Jessica Spaccio (Cornell University), Samantha Borisoff (Cornell University), and Arthur T. DeGaetano (Cornell University).
Citation: Michelle E. Miro, Romita Grocholski, Krista, Easton-Calabria, Lena, Jessica Spaccio, Samantha Borisoff, and Arthur T. DeGaetano, Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Fall 2023. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023.
Footnotes
https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/lackawanna-county/news-conference-held-to-discuss-flooding-in-scranton-lackawanna-county-mayor-paige-cognetti-property-damage-clean-up-crews/523-d47eafa1-1200-4d07-a5ee-1bc23b6df900 Return to text ⤴
https://www.pahomepage.com/news/second-victim-of-lackawanna-county-flash-flooding-dies/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/lackawanna-county/news-conference-held-to-discuss-flooding-in-scranton-lackawanna-county-mayor-paige-cognetti-property-damage-clean-up-crews/523-d47eafa1-1200-4d07-a5ee-1bc23b6df900 Return to text ⤴
https://www.pahomepage.com/news/second-victim-of-lackawanna-county-flash-flooding-dies/ Return to text ⤴
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202309131931 Return to text ⤴
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202309131931 Return to text ⤴
https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/climate-environment/weather-thunderstorm-maryland-tornado-flash-flooding-YIGP7NWXAVCSDN4PZ264MGLMSM/ Return to text ⤴
According to National Weather Service Instruction 10-922, a flash flood emergency is declared "in exceedingly rare situations, when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a flash flood is imminent or ongoing". https://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01009022curr.pdf Return to text ⤴
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/LEE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind Return to text ⤴
https://www.wmar2news.com/local/very-heavy-surf-in-ocean-city-from-hurricane-lee Return to text ⤴
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/OPHELIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind Return to text ⤴
https://www.weather.gov/akq/Sep232023_Ophelia Return to text ⤴
https://www.weather.gov/akq/Sep232023_Ophelia Return to text ⤴
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LSRLWX&e=202309240102 Return to text ⤴
https://www.weather.gov/akq/Sep232023_Ophelia Return to text ⤴
https://www.weather.gov/akq/Sep232023_Ophelia Return to text ⤴
https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/annapolis-businesses-dealing-with-flooding-left-behind-by-tropical-storm-ophelia/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wmdt.com/2023/09/ophelia-flood-waters-force-road-closures-in-crisfield-issues-persist-sunday/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Releases/Article/3535761/coast-guard-sets-port-condition-modified-zulu-for-port-of-baltimore/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Releases/Article/3534819/coast-guard-sets-port-condition-zulu-for-virginia-ports-in-anticipation-of-trop/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20230926.html Return to text ⤴
https://wjla.com/weather/first-alert-weather-blog/dc-weather-virginia-maryland-ophelia-tropical-storm-rain-showers-cloudy-cooler-temperatures-first-full-week-fall-autumn-september-forecast-national-mall-skies-photos-rainfall-radar-near-me Return to text ⤴
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230905/20230905_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230905/20230905_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230905/20230905_va_trd.png Return to text ⤴
https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/regional/regional.html Return to text ⤴
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20231003/20231003_huc02_trd.png Return to text ⤴
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20231003/20231003_va_trd.png Return to text ⤴
https://www.ahs.dep.pa.gov/NewsRoomPublic/articleviewer.aspx?id=22348&typeid=1 Return to text ⤴
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/lowest-i-had-ever-seen-the-river-drought-worsens-in-parts-of-shenandoah-valley/3418755/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.fauquier.com/news/article_d7cf5eda-5e30-11ee-8e24-6f007a6c881d.html Return to text ⤴
https://mailchi.mp/b49091e8a5e0/potomac-news-reservoir-2185712 Return to text ⤴
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/lowest-i-had-ever-seen-the-river-drought-worsens-in-parts-of-shenandoah-valley/3418755/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.whsv.com/2023/09/21/burnshire-hydroelectric-dam-dealing-with-historically-low-water-flow-levels/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/lowest-i-had-ever-seen-the-river-drought-worsens-in-parts-of-shenandoah-valley/3418755/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.gettysburgtimes.com/news/local/article_3e617f1c-7c2a-59e5-b45e-16324a26af29.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.whsv.com/2023/09/08/burn-ban-put-place-rockingham-county/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.fcva.us/Home/Components/News/News/1364/17 Return to text ⤴
https://www.nvdaily.com/nvdaily/dont-light-a-match-experienced-farmers-patiently-wait-for-%20rain/article_53552fcc-7b1a-5c33-9562-7de89f750a3a.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.dnronline.com/news/every-soul-acres-loses-fall-crops-to-drought/article_3b41ce90-1c11-5a43-8b6a-be90b91bed87.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.wgal.com/article/south-central-pennsylvania-orchard-owners-deal-with-heat-dry-conditions-impacting-apples-pumpkins/45028524# Return to text ⤴
https://www.abc27.com/local-news/livestock-and-crops-are-being-affected-by-heat-wave-and-lack-of-rain/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/ongoing-drought-has-leaves-changing-early-this-year/article_a8276a77-4a97-5c92-bd20-e889c5cdb58f.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/11/01/index.html Return to text ⤴
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https://www.ahs.dep.pa.gov/NewsRoomPublic/articleviewer.aspx?id=22360&typeid=1 Return to text ⤴
https://radio.wpsu.org/2023-10-24/lock-haven-emergency-water-source-stage-ii-drought Return to text ⤴
https://royalexaminer.com/front-royal-tightens-tap-mandatory-water-conservation-measures-enacted/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.potomacriver.org/news/news-from-around-the-basin-october-12-2023/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.whsv.com/2023/10/11/harmful-bacteria-levels-shenandoah-river-down-due-lack-rainfall/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.nvdaily.com/nvdaily/a-great-year-for-grapes-growers-say-dry-weather-produced-flavorful-%20fruit/article_5e1c38e8-674e-520f-bc4e-5804449976c0.html Return to text ⤴
https://wjla.com/weather/first-alert-weather-blog/drought-pumpkin-impacts-rain-fall-pumpkins-picking-near-me-dmv-dry-conditions-great-county-farms-smaller-vibrant-jack-o-lantern Return to text ⤴
https://www.whsv.com/2023/10/09/after-struggling-with-summer-drought-pumpkin-patches-now-rely-good-weekend-weather-bring-people-out/ Return to text ⤴
https://wjla.com/weather/first-alert-weather-blog/drought-apples-impacts-apple-picking-near-me-dmv-orchards-sweeter-crops-rainfall-fruit-trees-ripening-season-fall-october-agriculture Return to text ⤴
https://www.virginiamercury.com/2023/10/31/madison-county-wildfire-expands-to-425-acres-near-shenandoah-natl-park/ Return to text ⤴
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https://starexponent.com/news/town-of-culpeper-asking-residents-to-conserve-water-as-lake-levels-drop/article_15825274-7f05-11ee-9d71-77d150502844.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.aol.com/news/emmitsburg-implements-mandatory-water-restrictions-035900391.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.fox43.com/article/news/local/york-county/no-end-in-sight-york-county-mandatory-non-essential-water-restriction/521-c8173602-8bff-41ff-b1a3-55e78a6b11ba Return to text ⤴
https://www.winchesterstar.com/winchester_star/berryville-remains-under-water-use-restrictions-amid- drought/article_610b4876-17c6-51ac-b5aa-6b8b373d9bed.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.loudounnow.com/news/towns/round-hill-council-enacts-mandatory-water-conservation- measures/article_944e749a-799a-11ee-b114-ef292b92c80b.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.loudounnow.com/news/purcellville-purchases-water-filtration-system-to-offset-drought/article_3ab69ea8-8570-11ee-8d61-47e8c7fc5df4.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.potomacriver.org/focus-areas/water-resources-and-drinking-water/cooperative-water-supply-operations-on-the-potomac/drought-monitoring-and-operations/water-supply-outlook-status/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.potomacriver.org/focus-areas/water-resources-and-drinking-water/cooperative-water-supply-operations-on-the-potomac/drought-monitoring-and-operations/water-supply-outlook-status/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.cbs19news.com/story/50017210/nelson-supervisors-declare-drought-emergency-issue-burn-ban Return to text ⤴
https://www.cbs19news.com/story/50014948/greene-supervisors-pass-emergency-ordinance-allowing-burn-ban Return to text ⤴
https://www.nbc29.com/2023/11/22/burn-bans-still-effect-despite-recent-rain-around-central-virginia/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/09/fires-west-virginia-appalachians-drought/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wric.com/news/virginia-news/virginia-sees-most-wildfires-in-fall-fire-season-since-2016/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wfxrtv.com/virginia-wildfire-information/wildfire-at-matts-creek-in-bedford-county-currently-at-150-acres/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/virginia/trails-reopen-in-shenandoah-national-park/65-8f694190-f0db-4c58-9235-405279fe1777 Return to text ⤴
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/16/smoke-matts-creek-fire-mid-atlantic/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.wfxrtv.com/virginia-wildfire-information/several-schools-closed-across-central-va-due-to-air-quality/ Return to text ⤴
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/16/smoke-matts-creek-fire-mid-atlantic/ Return to text ⤴
https://twitter.com/NWSBinghamton/status/1725510700435701768 Return to text ⤴
https://www.newsleader.com/story/news/local/2023/11/03/virginia-fire-including-quaker-run-contributing-to-vast-swath-of-smoke-over-northeast/71445159007/ Return to text ⤴
Climate normals, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are "three-decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and precipitation." The latest climate normal released by NOAA is the 1991–2020 average. See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals Return to text ⤴
https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/09/19/index.html Return to text ⤴
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Return to text ⤴
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https://www.midatlanticrisa.org/climate-summaries/2018/11.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.midatlanticrisa.org/climate-summaries/2018/11.html Return to text ⤴
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Return to text ⤴
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex_equation.shtml Return to text ⤴
