Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Summer 2022

Highlights

• For this summer, the number of days with a low temperature at or above 70 or 75 degrees Fahrenheit ranked among the top 10 greatest for several sites in the watershed, including Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Washington, D.C.; and Dulles Airport, Virginia.
• The Mid-Atlantic region is projected to experience significant increases in the number of consecutive days above 90 degrees F. For some locations, stretches of high heat days could be five to 12 times longer than in the past.
• By the end of the century, the Mid-Atlantic region could see up to 26 consecutive days of temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit per year in a high emissions future, compared to a historical average of three days.

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Map showing the Mid-Atlantic region shaded in blue.

This summary focuses on summer weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region. The summer season is defined as the months of June, July, and August. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 above. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Severe Weather

On June 1, a three-inch hailstone fell in Broome County, New York, which was the largest on record for the county.¹ In other parts of the watershed, severe thunderstorm winds damaged two hangars at the Warrenton-Fauquier Airport in Virginia, with one section of roof striking an airplane, causing damage that was estimated at over $1 million.²

On June 8, an Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale 0 tornado with winds up to 85 miles per hour (mph) touched down in St. Mary's County, Maryland, causing damage that mostly consisted of downed trees.³ Straight-line winds of up to 75 mph in Howard County, Maryland, downed hundreds of trees and wires and caused minor damage to roofs and siding.⁴ Multiple roads were closed due to flash flooding and several vehicles were stuck in floodwaters in parts of Baltimore, Montgomery, and Howard counties in Maryland.⁵

On June 16, two tornadoes touched down in Goochland County, Virginia: an EF-1 with winds of up to 95 mph and an EF-0 with winds of up to 75 mph.⁶ Another storm in Louisa County, Virginia, spawned an EF-0 tornado with winds of up to 75 mph and dropped hail as large as 3 inches, the county's largest hailstone.^7,8 Straight-line winds of 70 to 110 mph damaged buildings and snapped/downed hundreds of trees in parts of Juniata, Perry, and Elk counties in Pennsylvania.⁹

SOURCE: NWS State College, Pennsylvania

On July 2, as much as 6 inches of rain fell across portions of Maryland, particularly in central Maryland, causing flash flooding.¹⁰ Rapid rises were seen on waterways, including Gwynns Falls in Baltimore City, which rose 7.7 feet in just 30 minutes.¹¹ The flooding caused road closures, left numerous vehicles stranded, resulted in multiple water rescues, and inundated some homes, displacing or trapping residents.¹²

On July 5, three tornadoes touched down in southern parts of the watershed: an EF-1 with winds of up to 90 mph in Prince George's County, Maryland; a tornado whose strength was not able to be determined due to the brevity of its touchdown and the limited damage in Anne Arundel County, Maryland; and an EF-0 tornado with winds of up to 70 mph in Lancaster County, Virginia.¹³ Straight-line winds of up to 70 mph where also reported in Prince George's County, Maryland.¹⁴ Damage from the tornadoes and straight-line winds included downed trees and wires and some damage to structures.¹⁵ In addition, a waterspout was seen on the Chesapeake Bay north of Gwynns Island, Virginia.¹⁶

Southern parts of the watershed were again impacted by severe weather on July 12 and 13. Two tornadoes, an EF-1 and an EF-0, touched down in Hampshire County, West Virginia, with straight-line winds of up to 105 mph, associated with the larger storm complex, causing extensive damage along a 23-mile-long, 9-mile-wide path in the county.¹⁷ Storm reports noted downed trees and wires, snapped power poles, damage to houses and farm buildings, and a flattened cornfield, as well as wind-driven large hail that defoliated trees and dented cars.^18,19 A swath of straight-line winds of up to 110 mph from Caroline County, Maryland, to Sussex County, Delaware, produced considerable tree and utility pole damage, caused some structural damage to outbuildings, and left one person injured.²⁰ Straight-line winds of up to 90 mph downed trees in Prince George's and Harford counties in Maryland.^21,22

On August 4 and 5, multiple portions of the watershed experienced severe thunderstorms.²³ In Otsego County, New York, a person was injured when a tree limb fell on their car.²⁴ An EF-1 tornado, with winds up to 110 mph, crossed Smith Island, Maryland, in the Chesapeake Bay. The tornado capsized boats, downed power poles, ripped the roofs off buildings, and destroyed a mobile home, leaving one person injured.²⁵ In a different storm, three people died and another was injured when they were struck by lightning in Washington, D.C.²⁶ It had been more than 18 years since a single lightning strike killed multiple people in the United States and more than 30 years since a fatal lightning strike occurred in Washington, D.C.^27,28

August 10 brought another round of severe weather to the region, this time focused on the southern portions of the watershed.²⁹ Localized rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches led to flash flooding.³⁰ In Prince George's County, Maryland the northeast Anacostia River rose over 7.5 feet in an hour, causing numerous road closures and water rescues.³¹ In Washington, D.C., people were trapped on the roof of their car and water entered businesses.³² A tree fell on a car in Williamsburg, Virginia, killing one person and injuring another.³³

Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on June 2 showed small areas of abnormal dryness in central New York, northern Pennsylvania, eastern West Virginia, southern Maryland, and parts of Virginia.³⁴ Factors such as short-term precipitation deficits, below-normal streamflow and groundwater levels, and declining soil moisture led to the introduction of moderate drought in southern Virginia and the expansion of abnormal dryness in central New York, northern Pennsylvania, eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and western/southern Virginia by early July.³⁵ Meanwhile, northeastern Virginia and southern Maryland saw enough precipitation during the month of June to ease their abnormal dryness.³⁶

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on August 4 showed that during July, dry conditions intensified in central New York and the northern half of Pennsylvania, with abnormal dryness expanding and moderate drought getting introduced.³⁷ In these areas, the warm, dry conditions stressed crops such as corn and led to reduced hay yields.^38,39 Conversely, abundant precipitation in Virginia allowed coverage of abnormal dryness and moderate drought to shrink significantly.⁴⁰

During the month of August, moderate drought and abnormal dryness persisted and even expanded in central New York, Pennsylvania, and on the Delmarva Peninsula due to factors such as below-normal precipitation and reduced streamflow and groundwater levels.⁴¹ In Pennsylvania, the dry conditions caused stunted corn, affected recreational activities, and led to localized water restrictions.^42,43,44 However, more moderate drought and abnormal dryness eased in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and much of Virginia where precipitation was adequate.⁴⁵

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 3 shows the summer 2022 average temperature compared with the climate normal—i.e., the average seasonal temperature from 1991 to 2020.⁴⁶ The figure shows that almost all the watershed experienced temperatures within two degrees of normal, with most experiencing temperatures 0-2 degrees above normal. A few locations along the coast of Virginia, southern Maryland, central Pennsylvania, and southern New York experienced temperatures between 2 and 3 degrees above normal. These temperature departures are consistent with what has been observed for the preceding spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons, where temperatures were generally within 2 degrees of normal.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the summer season’s average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station’s normal temperature for summer compared with the same station’s summer 2022 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

For this summer, the number of days with a low temperature at or above 70 or 75 degrees Fahrenheit ranked among the top 10 greatest for several sites in the watershed, including Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Washington, D.C.; and Dulles Airport, Virginia.⁴⁷ In fact, Harrisburg recorded nine days with a low of at least 75 degrees Fahrenheit during this summer, which was its greatest number for any summer on record.⁴⁸ Warm daily low temperatures can be problematic because there is less time available for people and environmental systems to recover from the high daily maximum temperatures that typically accompany such warm lows.^49,50

Eleven sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced average summer temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest on record, with Scranton, Pennsylvania experiencing its fourth hottest summer on record. The rest of the locations and ranks are reported in Table 1.

Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Scranton, PA	73.2	71.5	4
Harrisburg, PA	76.7	75.0	6
Lynchburg, VA	77.2	74.1	7
Williamsport, PA	73.7	71.7	9
Salisbury, MD	77.1	75.5	10
Baltimore, MD	77.8	76.0	11
Dulles Airport, VA	76.1	75.2	12
Washington, D.C.	79.2	78.9	14
Charlottesville, VA	77.1	76.9	15
Richmond, VA	78.2	77.3	16
Binghamton, NY	68.2	66.9	18

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

In June, only one site in the Mid-Atlantic experienced temperatures that ranked among its top 20 warmest Junes on record. Lynchburg, Virginia, had its 14^th warmest June on record with an average temperature of 75.4 degrees F compared to a normal of 72 degrees F. In addition, the minimum temperature of 73 degrees Fahrenheit at Dulles Airport, Virginia, on June 16 tied for the site's fifth warmest minimum temperature for June since records began at the site in 1960.⁵¹

In July, nine sites experienced temperatures that ranked in their top 20 warmest Julys on record. Scranton, Pennsylvania, experienced its eighth warmest July on record, Lynchburg, Pennsylvania, experienced its ninth warmest July on record, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, experienced its 10th warmest July on record.

The total number of days this July with warm daily low temperatures, meaning that they recorded a daily minimum temperature at or above 70- or 75-degrees Fahrenheit, was unusually large for several sites. For example, this July, Washington D.C., recorded 29 days with a low of at least 70 degrees Fahrenheit, while Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, had five days with a low of at least 75 degrees Fahrenheit, tying the third greatest number for July and for any month on record at each site.⁵² The number of consecutive days meeting these temperature thresholds was also notable. For example, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, saw 12 consecutive days (July 18-29) with a low of at least 70 degrees Fahrenheit, tying its fourth longest streak.⁵³

A few locations also experienced unusually high maximum daily temperatures in July. For instance, Scranton, Pennsylvania, recorded six consecutive days (July 19-24) with a high of at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit, tying its 10^th longest streak. Part 4 describes this further and shows modeled historical and projected future stretches of high heat days across the region.

For the month of August, another nine sites experienced temperatures that ranked in their top 20 Augusts on record. Notably, Scranton and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, recorded their second warmest Augusts and their 13^th all-time hottest months on record.⁵⁴ Scranton, Pennsylvania, also recorded a high of 98 degrees Fahrenheit on August 4, tying the site's third hottest August day on record.⁵⁵ Binghamton, New York's low temperature of 71 degrees Fahrenheit on August 7 and 8 tied the site's seventh warmest low temperature for August.⁵⁶

The number of August days with a high at or above 90 degrees Fahrenheit or a low at or above 70 degrees Fahrenheit ranked among the 10 greatest for several sites including Scranton and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Baltimore and Salisbury, Maryland; Binghamton, New York; and Dulles Airport Virginia.⁵⁷ For example, Harrisburg recorded 16 days with a low at or above 70 degrees Fahrenheit, tying as the fourth greatest number for that site for the month of August.⁵⁸ Harrisburg also has four consecutive days with a low at or above 75 degrees Fahrenheit, from August 7 to August 10, tying its fourth longest such streak.⁵⁹

June Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Lynchburg, VA	75.4	72.0	14
July Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Scranton, PA	75.9	73.7	8
Lynchburg, PA	79.4	76.0	9
Harrisburg, PA	78.9	77.3	10
Williamsport, PA	76.3	73.7	13
Baltimore, MD	80.4	78.3	14
Dulles Airport, VA	78.1	77.2	17
Salisbury, MD	79.4	77.9	17
Charlottesville, VA	79.2	79.0	18
Richmond, VA	80.7	79.4	18
August Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Harrisburg, PA	78.8	75.2	2
Scranton, PA	75.3	71.8	2
Salisbury, MD	78.9	75.8	4
Baltimore, MD	70.6	67.3	7
Binghamton, NY	79.1	76.2	7
Williamsport, PA	75.1	72.0	9
Dulles Airport, VA	77.5	75.7	11
Washington, D.C.	80.4	79.4	12
Norfolk, VA	79.6	79.2	20

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for June 1 through August 31, 2022 differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average summer total precipitation from 1991 – 2020. The region generally experienced drier than normal conditions north of the state of Maryland and in the state of Delaware, with areas experiencing between 50 and 100 percent of normal precipitation. Maryland and Virginia experienced a mix of conditions, with some areas receiving 75–100 percent of their normal precipitation and some areas receiving over 150 percent of normal rainfall. Washington, D.C. experienced wetter than normal conditions, receiving about 125–200 percent of normal precipitation for the summer season.

The portion of West Virginia within the Chesapeake Bay watershed experienced approximately average precipitation amounts, with some areas being above and others below normal precipitation.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station’s normal precipitation for summer compared with the same station’s summer 2022 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Two sites in the Mid-Atlantic region saw summer precipitation amounts that ranked in their top 20 driest on record. The locations and ranks are provided in Table 3.

Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (driest)
Williamsport, PA	7.43	12.66	9
Norfolk, VA	8.66	16.39	11

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

In June, zero sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced totals that ranked among their top driest on record, but two sites experienced totals that ranked among their top 20 wettest on record. These sites were Richmond, Virginia, and Binghamton, New York. Richmond, Virginia experienced its 11^th wettest June on record, but then went on to experience its 11^th driest July on record. Scranton, Pennsylvania also ranked within its top 20 driest Julys on record. Lynchburg, Virginia experienced its third wettest July on record, with 9.47 inches of precipitation compared to its normal precipitation of 4.19. This made it the 19^th all-time wettest month on record at Lynchburg, Virginia.⁶⁰ Washington National, D.C. saw its 13^th wettest July on record. Dulles Airport, Virginia saw its 14^th wettest July on record, followed by its 17^th driest August. Dulles was one of three sites that had one of their top 20 driest Augusts on record along with Norfolk, Virginia and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

June Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (driest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked among their top 20 driest Junes on record.
June Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Richmond, VA	6.58	4.64	11
Binghamton, NY	5.33	3.98	15
July Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (driest)
Richmond, VA	1.48	4.37	11
Scranton, PA	1.94	3.61	18
July Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Lynchburg, VA	9.47	4.19	3
Washington National, DC	7.61	4.33	13
Dulles Airport, VA	5.23	4.15	14
August Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (driest)
Norfolk, VA	1.21	5.88	7
Harrisburg, PA	1.14	3.77	8
Dulles Airport, VA	2.30	3.53	17
August Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (driest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked among their top 20 wettest Augusts on record.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Fall 2022 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of August 18, 2022 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures for all of the Mid-Atlantic region for September, October, and November 2022.⁶¹ The southwestern half of the region is forecasted to have a 400–50 percent chance of above normal temperatures, which indicates that the forecast has a chance of leaning towards a warmer than normal fall season.⁶² The northeastern portion of the region is forecasted to have a slightly greater 50–60 percent chance of above normal temperatures, which means that this part of the region is more likely to experience a warmer than normal fall season than the southwestern half of the region.⁶³ Over the same period, the precipitation forecast shows equal chances below-, near-, or above-normal conditions.⁶⁴ For more information on how NOAA defines at, above or below normal and determines percent chances, see How to Read the 3-class Three-Month Outlook maps.

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook describes how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of September 15, 2022, the Outlook indicates that between September 1 and November 30, 2022, drought development is likely in coastal Maryland.⁶⁵ The rest of the region is not expected to experience drought over this period.

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has a La Niña advisory active as of September 8, 2022. La Niña conditions are expected to continue through winter, with a transition to neutral conditions anticipated by spring.⁶⁶ La Niña conditions may impact temperature and precipitation across the United States over the next few months.⁶⁷

La Niña conditions are generally defined as cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. These conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.⁶⁸ La Niña can effect temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic, with temperatures generally above normal and precipitation at or below normal conditions.⁶⁹ Additional information on La Niña is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of August 4, 2022, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted an above-average 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season with 18 named storms and eight hurricanes and a 68 percent chance of at least one major hurricane (category 3–5) making landfall on the U.S. east coast.⁷⁰ NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which updates its outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season throughout the summer, is forecasting a 60 percent chance of an above-normal 2022 season. For the June 1 to November 30 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting 14–20 named storms, out of which 6–10 could become hurricanes and 3–5 of those could become major hurricanes, meaning that they would be category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph.⁷¹

For the 1991–2020 period of record, the Atlantic hurricane season experienced on average 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.⁷² More information on hurricane categories can be found at the National Hurricane Center's description of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Part 4: Longest Annual Stretch of High Heat Days

Recent heatwaves in the Mid-Atlantic have brought temperatures over 95 degrees F to much of the region.⁷³ Air conditioning use, however, which is one heat-related precaution that can be taken, is widespread in the Mid-Atlantic. Around 90 percent of homes in the region have air conditioning.⁷⁴ At the same time, extreme heat is anticipated to increase into the future. This suggests a high potential for risk to human health, as well as related risks to infrastructure and resource management and economic activity.^75,76,77

An examination of the length of consecutive high heat days and how they are expected to change into the future can help public health agencies, as well as other impacted groups, better plan for and adapt to extreme heat events. The following tool displays the longest annual stretch of high heat days over a historical period and into the future. Users can select a high heat temperature threshold most relevant to their interests, as well as future time periods, locations, and emissions scenarios.