Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2022

Highlights

• Temperatures were generally within two degrees of normal for the spring season across the Mid-Atlantic. This is similar to what we observed for the preceding summer, fall, and winter seasons.
• The region generally experienced slightly wetter than normal conditions, with most locations experiencing between 100 and 125 percent of their normal spring precipitation amounts.
• The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could see 14–21 named storms, six to ten hurricanes, and three to six major hurricanes, with researchers estimating a 71 percent chance of at least one major hurricane (category 3–5) making landfall on the U.S. east coast.
• An analysis of projected changes in total monthly precipitation shows that the region is projected to experience an increase in precipitation into the future, with the winter months projected to experience the largest increases in precipitation.

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Map showing the Mid-Atlantic region shaded in blue.

This summary focuses on spring weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region. The spring season is defined as the months of March, April, and May. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 above. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Winter Weather

A storm on March 12 dropped snow on the watershed. Storm snow accumulation ranged from less than an inch in Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia, to more than 10 inches in Binghamton, New York, which had is sixth snowiest March day on record.^1,2 The snow, which fell at a rate of up to 2 inches per hour, combined with wind gusts of 30 to 60 miles per hour (mph), created difficult travel conditions and caused a pileup involving 73 vehicles in central Pennsylvania.^3,4,5

On April 18–19, a winter storm brought record-setting snowfall to northern parts of the watershed. The greatest snow totals of 10 to 15 inches were seen in parts of central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania, where lightning and intense snowfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour were reported.^6,7 Binghamton, New York saw its greatest two-day snowfall for the month of April with 14.6 inches of snow.⁸ On April 19 alone, Binghamton received 11.4 inches of snow, which made it its third snowiest April day on record and its latest date for daily snowfall of more than 11 inches.⁹ The heavy, wet snow downed trees and power lines, blocking roads and causing numerous power outages.¹⁰ Nearly half of all New York State Electric and Gas customers in Broome County, where Binghamton, New York is located, lost power, some for multiple days.¹¹ This storm also brought rain to much of Maryland and Virginia, with the greatest rainfall totals of about 2 inches.¹²

Severe Weather

On March 31, severe thunderstorms downed trees and wires in multiple locations and spawned three tornadoes in the watershed.¹³ An Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale 1 tornado with winds of 85 to 95 mph downed hundreds of trees, damaged roofs, blew out windows, and destroyed outbuildings in Montour and Lycoming counties in Pennsylvania.¹⁴ Two EF-0 tornadoes with winds of 85 mph briefly touched down in Fairfax County, Virginia, causing damage at two service stations and uprooting and snapping trees.^15,16

On April 26, severe thunderstorms produced an EF-1 tornado in Augusta County, Virginia.¹⁷ The tornado was on the ground for 6 miles and snapped and uprooted trees and caused roof and structural damage to several buildings.¹⁸ In Cumberland County, Virginia, straight line winds of 80 to 85 mph destroyed barns and damaged roofs and windows.¹⁹

From May 6 to 7, southern parts of the watershed saw heavy rain, with as much as 5 inches reported in Frederick County, Maryland.²⁰ Harrisburg, Pennsylvania saw 2.17 inches of rain on May 6, making it the site’s second wettest May day on record.²¹ Flooding led to road closures in several areas, including along the Potomac River in Washington, D.C. and Alexandria, Virginia.^22,23 Severe thunderstorms in Virginia downed trees and wires, dropped small hail, and spawned an EF-0 tornado in Rockbridge County that damaged a church and some outbuildings.²⁴

On May 16, thunderstorms with wind gusts of up to 70 mph downed power lines and trees, which in turn damaged houses and vehicles and left thousands without power in the watershed.^25,26 Unusually large hail, the size of limes and baseballs (2 to 3 inches across), damaged homes and dented cars in southern Delaware and eastern and southern Maryland.²⁷ A 3-inch hailstone in Calvert County, Maryland from this storm was the state’s largest hailstone for any May day since records began in 1950, and a 2.25-inch hailstone that fell in Sussex County, Delaware was the state’s second largest hailstone on record.^28,29 The hailstones were each county’s largest on record.^30,31

During May 26 and 27, seven tornadoes touched down in southern portions of the watershed.^32,33 The strongest tornado was an EF-2 with peak winds of up to 135 mph and was on the ground for more than six miles in Bedford County, Virginia.³⁴ At least 15 homes were damaged, with a few suffering significant structural damage (Figure 2).³⁵ The tornado also damaged at least 35 structures such as sheds and garages and left two people injured.³⁶ In Pennsylvania, an EF-1 tornado with peak winds of up to 105 mph destroyed several large barns and sheds, blew down crops, and left three people injured along its over three-mile track in Lancaster County, while EF-0 tornadoes in Franklin and Cumberland counties damaged homes and trees.^37,38,39 The other three tornadoes were an EF-1 tornado near the St. Mary’s County-Charles County border in Maryland, an EF-0 in Montgomery County, Maryland, and an EF-0 in eastern Louisa/western Hanover County in Virginia.⁴⁰ Damage from these tornadoes mostly consisted of downed or snapped trees, some of which fell on houses and vehicles or blocked roads.^41,42,43

SOURCE: Blacksburg (Virginia) National Weather Service office

Drought

On March 1, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed areas of abnormal dryness in parts of Virginia and slivers of southern and eastern Maryland.⁴⁴

Short-term precipitation deficits, above-normal temperatures, below-normal streamflow, and declining soil moisture during the month of March caused moderate drought to be introduced in small areas of Maryland and Virginia and abnormal dryness to expand to include southern Pennsylvania, parts of Delaware, much of Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and nearly half of Virginia.⁴⁵

A wetter weather pattern during the first half of April eased moderate drought in northeastern/central Maryland and northern Virginia and reduced the abnormal dryness throughout the watershed.⁴⁶ However, there was slight expansion of moderate drought and dryness in western/southern Virginia and eastern West Virginia late in the month of April.⁴⁷

Above-normal precipitation during May alleviated moderate drought in the watershed and caused abnormal dryness to shrink in coverage in all but southeastern Virginia.⁴⁸

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 3 shows the March through May 2022 average temperature compared with the climate normal—i.e., the average seasonal temperature from 1991 to 2020.⁴⁹ The figure shows that across the region, most locations experienced temperatures within two degrees of their normal temperatures. Southeastern Maryland and small portions of southern Virginia, north-central Pennsylvania and south-centra New York experienced slightly warmer temperatures of 2–4 degrees Fahrenheit (F) above normal. These temperature departures are similar to what has been observed for the preceding summer, fall, and winter seasons, where temperatures were generally within 2 degrees of normal.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the spring season’s average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station’s normal temperature for spring compared with the same station’s spring 2022 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Nine sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced average spring temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest on record. The locations and ranks are reported in Table 1. Dulles Airport, Virginia and Scranton, Pennsylvania had their seventh warmest springs on record and with March and May also ranking among the 20 warmest on record (Table 2). Charlottesville, Lynchburg, and Richmond, Virginia also experienced spring temperatures that ranked in their top ten on record.

Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA	55.9	54.4	7
Scranton, PA	51.4	49.8	7
Charlottesville, VA	59.0	57.9	8
Lynchburg, VA	58.9	55.6	8
Richmond, VA	60.0	57.9	9
Binghamton, NY	45.9	44.4	13
Salisbury, MD	56.9	54.7	13
Baltimore, MD	56.4	54.6	16
Washington National, DC	58.4	57.7	17

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

In March, eight sites in the Mid-Atlantic experienced temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest on record. In contrast, no sites experienced April temperatures that ranked in their top 20 warmest or coldest Aprils on record. In May, four sites experienced temperatures that ranked in their top 20 warmest on record, including Scranton, Pennsylvania and Dulles Airport, Virginia who also had top 20 March temperatures. Both sites experienced their sixth warmest high temperature for May on record on May 31 when high temperatures at Dulles Airport soared to 94 degrees F and temperatures in Scranton peaked at 92 degrees F.

March Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA	48.1	44.2	8
Charlottesville, VA	52.0	48.7	11
Salisbury, MD	49.8	45.3	13
Richmond, VA	52.4	48.4	14
Lynchburg, VA	51.8	46.4	15
Washington National, DC	50.4	47.6	15
Norfolk, VA	53.9	50.7	16
Scranton, PA	41.2	38.3	17
April Temperature Rankings
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank
No sites experienced temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest or coldest on record.
May Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Scranton, PA	63.9	60.9	9
Binghamton, NY	59.3	56.2	11
Dulles Airport, VA	65.8	64.0	14
Harrisburg, PA	65.3	63.4	19

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for March 1 through May 31, 2022 differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average spring precipitation from 1991 – 2020. The region generally experienced slightly wetter than normal conditions, with much of the region experiencing between 100 and 125 percent of their normal precipitation. A few areas experienced a little more or less precipitation, with a couple of small portions of West Virginia and northeastern Pennsylvania receiving between 150 and 200 percent of their normal precipitation.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station’s normal precipitation for spring compared with the same station’s spring 2022 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Three sites in the Mid-Atlantic region saw spring precipitation amounts that ranked in their top 20 wettest on record. The locations and ranks are provided in Table 3. Scranton, Pennsylvania and Binghamton, New York, which recorded their eighth and 16th wettest springs respectively, also experienced springs that ranked in their top 20 in terms of temperature.

Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Scranton, PA	13.15	9.29	8
Binghamton, NY	11.57	10.46	16
Harrisburg, PA	13.08	11.08	20

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

In both March and April sites across the Mid-Atlantic saw monthly precipitation totals that ranked among their top 20 wettest and driest on record. Binghamton, New York saw its 13th wettest March and April months while Dulles Airport, Virginia saw its 11th driest March and 18th driest April on record. Scranton, Pennsylvania had the highest-ranking month of all the sites, seeing its fifth wettest April on record and experiencing its fourth wettest April day on record on April 7, when it recorded 2.14 inches of precipitation. In May, six sites saw monthly precipitation totals that ranked among their top 20 wettest on record, with Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Dulles Airport, Virginia, and Martinsburg, West Virginia experiencing precipitation amounts that ranked within their top ten Mays on record.

March Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (driest)
Dulles Airport, VA	1.92	3.50	11
Martinsburg, WV	1.39	3.42	11
March Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY	3.83	3.05	13
April Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (driest)
Dulles Airport, VA	2.25	3.47	18
April Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Scranton, PA	6.16	3.26	5
Binghamton, NY	4.52	3.63	13
May Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (driest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked among their top 20 driest Mays on record.
May Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Harrisburg, PA	6.67	3.83	9
Dulles Airport, VA	6.85	4.72	10
Martinsburg, WV	7.21	4.05	10
Washington National, DC	6.36	3.94	14
Salisbury, MD	5.93	3.73	18
Lynchburg, VA	5.72	3.98	19

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Two sites, Binghamton, New York and Dulles Airport, Virginia, experienced one of their top 20 snowiest spring seasons on record. This follows a winter where Binghamton saw its 12th least snowy winter season. Interestingly, Dulles Airport recorded less than their normal amount of snow over the spring season, and yet still had the amount of snowfall rank as their 19th snowiest spring. All of Dulles Airport’s spring snow fell in March, while Binghamton experienced snowfall in both March and April (Table 6).

Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (snowiest)
Binghamton, NY	36.9	20.3	7
Dulles Airport, VA	3.5	4.0	19

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

In March and April a few sites experienced snowfall that ranked in their top 20 snowiest on record. Binghamton saw its 15th snowiest March and fifth snowiest April on record, with 16.7 inches more than normal falling between the two months. Also of note, Dulles Airport, Virginia, received 0.4 inches of snow less than their normal in March, but this still ranked as its 19th snowiest March on record. No sites measured snow during the month of May, which is typical for the region.

March Snowfall Rankings (snowiest)
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (snowiest)
Binghamton, NY	21.9	16.4	15
Dulles Airport, VA	3.5	3.9	19
April Snowfall Rankings (snowiest)
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (snowiest)
Binghamton, NY	15.0	3.8	5
Williamsport, PA	3.3	0.8	15
May Snowfall Rankings
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precip (inches)	Rank
No sites measured any snowfall in May.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Summer 2022 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of May 19, 2022 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures for all of the Mid-Atlantic region for June, July, and August 2022.⁵⁰ The majority of the region is forecasted to have a 40–50 percent chance of above normal temperatures, which indicates that the forecast has a chance of leaning towards a warmer than normal summer season.⁵¹ The northeastern portion of the region is forecasted to have a slightly greater 50–60 percent chance of above normal temperatures than the rest of the Mid-Atlantic which means that this part of the region will likely experience a warmer than normal summer season.⁵² Over the same period, the precipitation forecast shows a 33–40 or 40–50 percent chance of wetter than normal conditions for most the Mid-Atlantic region, which means that the region is largely leaning towards having a wetter than normal summer season. Only the northwestern portion of Pennsylvania and central New York forecast for equal chance of below-, near-, or above-normal conditions.⁵³

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook describes how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of May 31, 2022, the Outlook indicates that between June 1 and August 31, 2022, drought is expected to be removed in a small portion of western Virginia and eastern West Virginia.⁵⁴ The rest of the region is not expected to experience drought over this period.

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has a La Niña advisory active as of May 12, 2022. La Niña conditions are expected to continue through July (an 87 percent chance), but the chances of it continuing will decrease in late summer, with a 58 percent chance that La Niña conditions will continue in August–October 2022.^55,56 La Niña conditions may impact temperature and precipitation across the United States over the next few months.⁵⁷ In particular, it may contribute to conditions that lead to increased severe spring weather and a potentially more active Atlantic Hurricane season.⁵⁸

La Niña conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA’s long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.⁵⁹ However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of April 7, 2022, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted an above-average 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season with 19 named storms and nine hurricanes and a 71 percent chance of at least one major hurricane (category 3–5) making landfall on the U.S. east coast.⁶⁰ NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which releases outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season at the close of each spring season, is forecasting a 65 percent chance of an above-normal 2022 season.⁶¹ For the June 1 to November 30 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting 14–21 named storms, out of which 6–10 could become hurricanes and 3–6 of those could become major hurricanes, meaning that they would be category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph.⁶²

NOAA’s CPC updated their definition of a normal or average hurricane season in 2021 to reflect observations from the 1991–2020 period of record. According to NOAA, “the updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5) remains unchanged at 3.”⁶³

Part 4: Projected Changes in Total Monthly Precipitation

Planning for future changes in precipitation necessitates an understanding of not only how precipitation is changing from year to year but also how climate change is shifting precipitation within a year. The distribution of precipitation within a year has important implications for water supply planning, stormwater management and flood control, irrigation for agriculture, among many other applications. For example, a shift from high precipitation during the spring to more during winter could impact crop yields or place greater demands on water for irrigation. Over recent decades, research has shown that the Northeast has experienced an increase in precipitation, particularly during the winter months, and that this trend is expected to continue into the future.⁶⁴

This assessment focuses on the understanding these trends for the Mid-Atlantic region specifically. Figure 5 shows how total monthly precipitation is projected to change in the future compared to an historical baseline (1950–2020), as well as the climate normal (1991–2020).