Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Summer 2024

Highlights

  • Average temperatures for the 2024 summer season were either 0–2 or 2–4 degrees F above normal across the Mid-Atlantic region. This is a few degrees warmer than the Summer 2023 season, which was the first season since at least 2018 where temperatures were largely below normal.
  • Several sites experienced summers that ranked in their top five hottest on record, including Dulles Airport, Virginia, which saw its hottest summer season on record.
  • Precipitation amounts varied both across the region and over the course of the summer season. Some locations saw as little as 50–75 percent of normal rainfall while others experienced over 150 percent of normal precipitation.
  • The Mid-Atlantic region could see nearly a 190 percent increase (from 16.5 days to 47.7 days) in the average number of days with temperatures greater than 90 degrees F by mid-century and over a 300 percent increase (from 16.5 days to 68.1 days) by the end of the century under a high future climate scenario (SSP3-7.0).

View all climate summaries

This summary focuses on weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region for the summer 2024 season. The summer season is defined as the months of June, July, and August. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

Figure 1. MARISA Mid-Atlantic Region

A map of the Mid-Atlantic regional highlighting the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

This map shows the “MARISA region”. The lightly shaded area shows the extent of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Severe Weather

On June 5, severe thunderstorms produced 13 tornadoes in the watershed, including nine in Maryland, more than four times the state's average of two tornadoes for the month of June.1,2 Washington County, Maryland saw its first tornado in over a decade.3 Of the other tornadoes, three touched down in eastern West Virginia and one in northern Virginia.4 It was the first time since June 1998 that Berkeley County, West Virginia, had two tornadoes in the same day and it also tied as the most tornadoes the county has experienced in a single day.5 Most of the tornado damage consisted of snapped or uprooted trees, which, in some cases, caused significant damage to houses and vehicles.6 For example, an Enhanced Fujita Scale 1 (EF-1) tornado near Gaithersburg, Maryland, felled trees onto houses, injuring five people and causing seven houses to be condemned.7

Figure 2. Damage to trees caused by a tornado near Gaithersburg, Maryland, on June 5, 2024.

SOURCE: NOAA

Several rounds of severe weather, including severe storms and tornadoes, affected the watershed between June 22 and 30, with numerous reports of felled trees, downed power lines and poles, and other damage.8,9 One storm prompted the National Weather Service office in Binghamton, New York, to issue a severe thunderstorm warning which included enhanced wording declaring that it was "an extremely dangerous situation."10 Some localized areas with more significant damage were caused by downbursts, which had estimated peak wind speeds of 70 to 105 mph.11,12 For instance, a downburst in Columbia County, Pennsylvania, extensively damaged several outbuildings including a barn that was destroyed, while another downburst in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, downed hundreds of trees.13,14 There were a few injuries attributable to these storms.15,16

The watershed saw severe weather each day between July 15 and 17. Storm reports noted downed trees and power lines that blocked roads and fell onto homes and vehicles, broken power poles, and damage to roofs.17,18,19 Areas of more concentrated damage in places including York and Lebanon counties in Pennsylvania were caused by downbursts, with estimated winds of 70 to 90 mph.20,21

Severe thunderstorms moved through the watershed on August 29. An EF-1 tornado with estimated peak wind speeds of up to 95 mph downed trees in Blair County, Pennsylvania, while Loudoun County, Virginia, saw tennis ball-sized hail that broke windshields on multiple vehicles.22,23 Some of the storms produced heavy rain, including a report of 3.75 inches in an hour in Louisa County, Virginia, which was roughly a 500-year storm event, meaning it has a 0.2 percent chance of occurring in any given year.24,25 Portions of central Pennsylvania, particularly Juniata County, saw radar-estimated rainfall totals of 5 to over 7 inches, resulting in flash flooding.26 Storm reports noted collapsed basement walls, a vehicle stuck in a sinkhole, and chunks of a bridge washed away.27,28,29

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Hurricane Beryl traveled through the Caribbean Sea and made multiple landfalls before hitting the Gulf Coast of Texas on July 8th as a Category 1 Hurricane.30 The storm system then tracked northeast, and on July 10, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl produced severe weather and heavy rainfall in northern parts of the watershed.31 Multiple funnel clouds were seen in Northern Pennsylvania and central New York, and strong thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines.32,33

The remnants of Hurricane Debby interacted with a frontal system to produce heavy rainfall and several tornadoes in the watershed from August 8 to 10.34 The greatest rainfall totals ranged from 7 to 11 inches, generally in the southern half of the region. 35,36 A few sites including Williamsport, Pennsylvania, and Binghamton, New York, had one of their 10 wettest August days, with those sites going on to have one of their 10 wettest Augusts on record.37 The rainfall led to significant flash flooding, particularly in parts of northern Pennsylvania and central New York where the National Weather Service issued rare Flash Flood Emergencies, which signify a dangerous, life-threatening situation.38,39 Floodwaters inundated and/or washed away roads and buildings, resulting in numerous evacuations and water rescues.40,41,42 Debby's remnants also spawned five tornadoes in the watershed – three in Virginia, one in eastern West Virginia, and one in central Pennsylvania.43 The tornadoes were rated EF-0 or EF-1, with storm reports noting snapped and uprooted trees that damaged multiple homes.44,45,46 The National Weather Service office in Wakefield, Virginia noted that at least some part of their service area was under a Tornado Watch for nearly 36 consecutive hours.47 There were several storm-related injuries, mostly due to fallen trees.48

In mid-August, Hurricane Ernesto moved through the Atlantic Ocean hundreds of miles off the East Coast.49 Despite the distance offshore, the storm produced rough surf and rip currents along the Mid-Atlantic coastline.50

Drought

The U.S Drought Monitor from June 4 showed abnormal dryness covering portions of eastern Maryland, southern Delaware, eastern West Virginia, and western Virginia.51 Multiple factors, including excessive heat, little precipitation, reduced soil moisture, and low streamflow led to the widespread expansion of drought and abnormal dryness, particularly in eastern West Virginia, Virginia, western and southern Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania.52 Between June 18 and 25, Maryland's percent area in drought increased from five percent to 61 percent.53 Over the same week, West Virginia's drought coverage expanded from five percent to 59 percent and Virginia's increased from 25 percent to 91 percent.54,55

Mandatory water restrictions were implemented in places like Berryville, Virginia, while other locations such as Staunton, Virginia, asked residents to voluntarily conserve water.56,57 Growers in parts of Virginia and Maryland relied heavily on irrigation, noting that the ground was too hard to plant seeds, some crops did not germinate, and supplemental feed was being given to cattle due to stunted pastures.58,59,60

The hot, dry weather increased fire risk, with an uptick in fires seen in parts of Virginia and burn bans enacted in places like central Virginia and eastern Maryland.61,62,63 Low water levels in parts of Virginia affected activities such as rafting and kayaking.64 Shenandoah National Park in Virginia suspended all fishing activity as low water levels and warm water temperatures reduced oxygen in the water and stressed fish.65

July featured similar conditions as June for much of the watershed, with hot temperatures and sporadic rainfall.66 By mid-July, extreme drought took hold in eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and northern Virginia.67 This was the first time West Virginia or Maryland experienced extreme drought since September 2010.68 There was also expansion of severe and moderate drought in several areas including western and northern Virginia, central Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania.69 Locally heavy rainfall in parts of eastern Virginia, southern Maryland, and on the Delmarva Peninsula allowed drought and/or abnormal dryness to contract in those locations. 70

The intensifying drought had multiple impacts on waterways and water supply management in the watershed. Drought monitoring operations were in place for the Potomac River Basin, where some waterways such as the Shenandoah River, South Branch Potomac River, and Cacapon River had record-low streamflow.71 Low river flows and warm water temperatures contributed to algal blooms in the basin.72 For example, a large algae bloom on the Potomac River set off a chain of events that resulted in a brief boil water advisory for all of Washington, D.C., and Arlington, Virginia. This was the first such advisory encompassing the entire District since 1996.73 Millions of residents in the Mid-Atlantic, including those in the Potomac River Basin, were asked to conserve water during the month of July.74,75 Additionally, mandatory water restrictions were enacted in some Virginia localities such as Fauquier, Loudoun, and Louisa counties.76,77,78 Low streamflow along the Shenandoah River significantly reduced power production at a hydroelectric dam and a few wells in the region went dry.79,80

Farmers continued to rely heavily on irrigation, increasing operation costs.81 During the week ending in July 14 reports from Virginia noted that farmers had to haul in water for livestock and were already feeding them hay, which normally doesn't happen until the winter.82,83 Growers in parts of West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania reported crop losses, dried up pastures, and stunted, drought-stressed crops such as corn and soybeans.84,85,86 In Maryland, one grower reported losing half their sweet corn, worth at least $25,000, and another grower expected to lose as much as $11,000 in wheat.87 Wildlife looking for food and moisture damaged crops.88 Dry conditions also prompted burn bans to be enacted in a few central Pennsylvania communities.89

At the beginning of August, extreme drought was present in an area from southern Pennsylvania through western Maryland and eastern West Virginia into northern and western Virginia.90 This was surrounded by areas of severe and moderate drought, as well as abnormal dryness, with roughly two-thirds of Virginia and Maryland experiencing drought or dryness.91 During the second week of August, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought heavy rainfall to much of the watershed, which allowed the extreme drought to ease and other areas of drought and abnormal dryness to contract.92 During the last two weeks of August, drought continued to improve across the watershed, except for on the Delmarva Peninsula where abnormal dryness expanded.93

In early August, drought conditions likely contributed to algae mats on the North Fork of the Shenandoah River that affected recreational activities and caused Frederick County to cease buying water from the city of Winchester, Virginia.94,95 Rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Debby from August 8 to 10 boosted surface water conditions such as reservoir levels and streamflow, allowing the fishing ban at Shenandoah National Park to be lifted.96,97 However, more precipitation was needed to fully relieve drought conditions, with groundwater levels remaining below normal in some areas and officials continuing to ask residents in the Potomac River Basin watershed to conserve water.98,99 The rainfall also came too late to save crops such as soybeans and corn, as some growers expected to see their yields cut in half.100,101,102

Figure 3. U.S. Drought Monitor for the Mid-Atlantic – June 4 – August 30, 2024

Animation showing areas of drought in the Mid-Atlantic region from June to August, 2024. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

SOURCE: U.S. Drought Monitor

Air Quality

In late July, smoke from wildfires burning in the western U.S. and Canada caused hazy skies in parts of the watershed.103,104,105 The smoke was high in the atmosphere, which limited air quality concerns. 106,107,108

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 4 shows the summer 2024 average temperature compared with the climate normal, which is defined as the average summer temperature from 1991 to 2020.109 The figure shows that the entire region experienced above normal temperatures this summer season. Most of the region experienced temperatures that were either 0-2 or 2-4 degrees F above normal. This is a few degrees warmer than the Summer 2023 season, which was the first season since at least 2018 where temperatures were largely below normal.

Figure 4. June 1 – July 31, 2024, Departure from Normal Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)

A heat map showing departure from normal temperature in the Mid-Atlantic region from June to August, 2024.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the summer season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for summer compared with the same station's summer 2024 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Summer 2024 was the hottest on record for Dulles Airport, Virginia and multiple other sites in the watershed experienced temperatures that ranked among their top 20 warmest summers on record (Table 1).

Additional temperature-related events are discussed in the Monthly Temperature Rankings section below.

Table 1. Summer Season (June–August) Temperature Rankings

Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 78.1 75.2 1
Baltimore, MD 78.9 76.0 3
Washington, D.C. 80.9 78.9 3
Harrisburg, PA 76.9 75.0 5
Richmond, VA 79.3 77.3 5
Norfolk, VA 79.7 79.0 6
Scranton, PA 72.8 71.5 7
Williamsport, PA 73.7 71.7 9
Lynchburg, VA 76.5 74.1 14
Binghamton, NY 68.6 66.9 15
Charlottesville, VA 77.1 76.9 16

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the spring season, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for spring temperatures.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

June 2024 ranked among the 15 hottest months of June on record for multiple sites across the watershed including Washington, D.C. and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which saw their second and third hottest months of June respectively (Table 2). Additionally, Dulles Airport, Virginia, saw 14 days in the month of June with a high of at least 90 degrees F, which tied its greatest number for June.110 This is also nearly half of the average annual number of days with maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees F for Dulles Airport (32.7 days). 111

The watershed experienced a heat wave from June 17 to 23.112 The highest temperatures generally ranged from 90 to 101 degrees F, with the heat index making it feel even hotter.113,114 High temperatures at several sites including Baltimore, Maryland, with a high of 101 degrees F on June 22, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, with a high of 97 degrees F on June 21, ranked among the 10 hottest on record for June.115 Excessively warm overnight lows, the highest ranging from 70 to 81 degrees F, provided little relief from the daytime heat.116 Dulles Airport, Virginia, had never recorded a low of 75 degrees F or warmer in June until this heat wave, when it recorded two.117 In fact, Dulles set a record for hottest June low temperature on June 23 (78 degrees F).118 Baltimore recorded a low temperature of 80 degrees F or higher in the month of June for only the fourth time on record.119 Several stations, including Binghamton, New York, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., recorded low temperatures that ranked among their 10 hottest on record for June, with a couple also ranking among the 10 all-time hottest low temperatures.120 During the heat wave, Binghamton recorded two days with low temperatures of 70 degrees F or warmer, tying its greatest number for June.121 For Baltimore and Washington, D.C., it was the second earliest occurrence of a low of 80 degrees F or warmer.122

This heat wave led to an uptick in emergency room visits in Maryland, with four heat-related deaths occurring in the state during the month of June.123,124

July ranked among the 20 all-time hottest months on record for multiple sites including Baltimore, Maryland, with its second all-time hottest month, Washington, D.C., with its fourth all-time hottest month, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, with its fifth all-time hottest month.125 Baltimore tallied five days in July with a high of 100 degrees F or higher, tying as its greatest number for any month since its records began in 1872.126 Sites like Dulles Airport; Richmond, Virginia; and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania saw their greatest number of days with a low of at least 75 degrees F for any month on record.127 Washington, D.C., recorded six days with a low of at least 80 degrees F, its second highest tally for any month since its records began in 1872.128 Washington, D.C. also saw 14 consecutive days with a low of at least 75 degrees F, tying its second-longest such streak.129

The heat during July disrupted train service, affected farm operations, and led to multiple deaths in Maryland.130,131,132,133

In early August, Baltimore, Maryland and Dulles Airport, Virginia reached a high of 101 degrees F, which ranked among their 10 hottest temperatures for August.134 In addition, Washington, D.C. and Dulles Airport saw low temperatures that ranked among their 10 hottest for August.135 For instance, Washington, D.C.'s low of 80 degrees F on August 2 was tied as its fourth-hottest low temperature for August.136

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and temperatures are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Monthly Temperature Rankings

June Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 76.5 72.5 2
National Airport, DC 79.7 76.3 2
Harrisburg, PA 76.0 72.5 3
Richmond, VA 78.8 75.0 4
Baltimore, MD 77.6 73.5 5
Binghamton, NY 67.3 64.4 5
Charlottesville, VA 77.3 74.8 5
Norfolk, VA 79.0 76.7 5
Scranton, PA 71.6 69.0 5
Williamsport, PA 72.5 69.4 9
Lynchburg, VA 75.6 72.0 13
Salisbury, MD 74.6 72.7 15
July Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Baltimore, MD 82.2 78.3 2
Dulles Airport, VA 80.8 77.2 3
National Airport, DC 83.7 81.0 4
Harrisburg, PA 80.2 77.3 5
Binghamton, NY 71.8 68.9 11
Scranton, PA 75.7 73.7 11
Williamsport, PA 76.4 73.7 12
Richmond, VA 80.9 79.4 17
Lynchburg, VA 78.5 76.0 19
August Temperature Rankings (warmest)
Station Name Avg. Temp (degrees F) Normal Temp (degrees F) Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA 76.9 75.7 20

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: In this table, "avg. temp" is the temperature average from the indicated month, while the "normal temp" is the 30-year average (from 1991-2020) for that month's temperatures.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for June 1, 2024, through August 31, 2024, differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average summer precipitation from 1991–2020. This figure shows that a range of precipitation was experienced throughout the watershed. Portions of northern, central, and southwest Virginia, eastern West Virginia, southern and western Maryland, and western Pennsylvania saw as little as 50-75 percent of normal rainfall. Meanwhile, a few areas in the southern New York, central Pennsylvania, central Maryland, and south central Virginia saw above normal precipitation.

Figure 5. June 1 – August 31, 2024 Percentage of Normal Precipitation

A heat map showing departure from normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region for June to August, 2024. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for summer compared with the same station's summer 2024 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Summer 2024 ranked among the top 20 wettest summers on record for two sites in the watershed and among the top 20 driest summers for one site (Table 3).

Table 3. Summer Season (June–August) Precipitation Rankings

Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY 15.78 12.59 10
Martinsburg, WV 14.65 10.65 15
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Dulles Airport, VA 8.48 11.98 13

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

June 2024 was record dry for Lynchburg, Virginia, which saw only 1 percent of normal precipitation, and among the 20 driest for several other sites in the watershed (Table 4).137 July 2024 ranked among the 20 driest months of July on record for two sites but was among the 20 wettest for several other sites (Table 4). Binghamton, New York saw its third wettest July day on record with 2.43 inches of rain on July 22.138

In early August, Williamsport, Pennsylvania, and Binghamton, New York, had one of their 10 wettest August days with 3.30 and 1.94 inches of rain respectively. 139 Martinsburg, West Virginia had its wettest August on record, experiencing over 350% of its normal precipitation.140

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of precipitation are shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Monthly Precipitation Rankings

June Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Lynchburg, VA 0.04 3.82 1
Dulles Airport, VA 0.69 4.30 2
Charlottesville, VA 0.71 4.38 3
National Airport, DC 1.15 4.20 4
Martinsburg, WV 1.50 3.85 9
Baltimore, MD 1.35 3.98 14
Richmond, VA 1.69 4.64 15
Binghamton, NY 2.86 4.69 18
July Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (driest)
Baltimore, MD 1.41 4.48 11
Charlottesville, VA 2.38 3.37 14
July Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY 6.72 3.80 6
Norfolk, VA 10.68 6.08 13
Richmond, VA 8.39 4.37 15
August Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name Precipitation (inches) Normal Precipitation (inches) Rank (wettest)
Martinsburg, WV 11.02 3.02 1
Binghamton, NY 6.20 4.10 8
Williamsport, PA 7.07 4.17 10
Dulles Airport, VA 5.13 3.53 14
Lynchburg, VA 6.63 3.22 14
Scranton, PA 6.10 3.85 14

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2024 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Fall 2024 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of August 15, 2024, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 50-60 percent chance of above normal temperatures for Maryland, Delaware, Washington, D.C., Pennsylvania, northeastern Virginia, and easternmost West Virginia for the months of September, October, and November.141 Most of Virginia and West Virginia have a 40–50 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the fall season.142 This forecast indicates that the Mid-Atlantic region is leaning towards having or is likely to have a warmer than normal fall season.143 The precipitation forecast shows a 33–50 percent chance of above normal precipitation in the eastern and central portion of the region for the fall season.144 The western areas of the Mid-Atlantic are forecasted to have an equal chance of either below, near, or above normal amounts of precipitation in September, October, and November.145

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of August 31, 2024, the Outlook indicates that drought conditions are expected to improve in northern and western Virginia, with much of the drought in that area being removed.146 Drought conditions are forecasted to improve but remain in southern West Virginia and portions of Virginia and drought is expected to persist in far western Maryland and northern West Virginia. 147

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, has a La Niña watch active as of August 8, 2024.148 This means that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for a few months, with a 66 percent chance of La Niña conditions developing during the fall season and a 74 percent chance these conditions will continue into the winter season.149

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.150 However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

As of August 6, 2024, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) updated their forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season. They forecast an "extremely active" 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with 23 named storms and 12 hurricanes (6 major hurricanes) and a 56 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. east coast.151 Continued extremely high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the predicted change to La Niña conditions in the Pacific (which reduces wind shear in the Atlantic basin) during the peak of hurricane season give forecasters have a "higher-than-normal confidence" in their forecast for a very active season.152

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on August 8, 2024. They forecast a 90 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year with 17-24 named storms, out of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, and 4-7 of those could be major hurricanes (defined as category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph).153

A normal Atlantic hurricane season is defined as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).154 As of September 3, 2024, there have been five named storms, three of which were hurricanes (one of those, Beryl, being a major hurricane) in the Atlantic basin.155 The first few months of the hurricane season was above-average, with Hurricane Beryl becoming the earliest Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic on record, and Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto following by mid-August.156 The peak of hurricane season is on September 10.157

Part 4: Extreme Temperature Projections Using Updated Climate Model Data from LOCA2

The Spring 2024 edition of the Mid-Atlantic Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook provided an initial visualization of the latest downscaled climate projections that are available for the Mid-Atlantic region, specifically what these projections show in terms of extreme precipitation. This Summer 2024 edition builds on this by visualizing the latest model results for temperature.

"As described in the Winter 2023-2024 Climate Summary, the most recent scientific update to global climate model projections of future climate change – the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) – are now available for researchers and practitioners as downscaled projections for the United States. This dataset, Localized Constructed Analogues 2 (LOCA2), provides higher spatial resolution (~3.7 square miles) projections of future temperature and precipitation than the global CMIP6 models which have spatial resolutions on the order of tens to hundreds of square miles.158 LOCA and LOCA2 use similar downscaling methods, but LOCA2 was designed with the intention to do a better job of preserving any extremes in daily precipitation from the global climate models.159 A detailed comparison of how LOCA2 is different from LOCA is provided on the LOCA website. For a more complete discussion about and introduction to climate projections and future climate scenarios, check out Part 4 of the Winter 2023-2024 Climate Summary."160

This is our second climate summary that incorporates LOCA2 models.

"In future climate summaries, we will do a more detailed comparison between LOCA and LOCA2, but for now this summary is intended to provide an initial look at these new downscaled climate models."161

In this section, we present an analysis of future projected days with extreme temperatures, or days with temperatures above 90, 95, or 100 degrees F.

Key Findings

  • The Mid-Atlantic region could see nearly a 190 percent increase (from 16.5 days to 47.7 days) in the average number of days with temperatures greater than 90 degrees F by mid-century and over a 300 percent increase (from 16.5 days to 68.1 days) by the end of the century under a high future climate scenario (SSP3-7.0).
  • The southern and eastern portions of the region and locations at lower elevations will see greater future instances of days with temperatures above 90 degrees F. For example, areas southeast of Richmond, Virginia are projected to experience over 120 days per year that reach at least 90 degrees F by 2100 under the high future climate scenario. Those areas saw an average of about 50 days above 90 in the baseline time period (1991-2020).

Figure 6. CMIP6 Extreme Temperature Projections

How to Use the Tool

Selecting Temperature Thresholds and Time Periods Use the filters to the right of the maps to adjust the temperature threshold, future time period, and climate scenario.

Technical Notes

Localized Constructed Analogs 2 (LOCA2) is a downscaled climate data product available at 6 km resolution over the continental United States.162 The LOCA2 dataset includes 27 of the climate models available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) archive, for three future climate scenarios: an intermediate-emissions future (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5), a high-emissions future (SSP 3-7.0) and a very high-emissions future (SSP 5-8.5). 163 For this tool, we used LOCA2 data over the Mid-Atlantic region from 2021-2100 (or 2099 for some models). Access LOCA2 datasets and learn more about the methodology.

Back to top

The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook is a quarterly series produced by the MARISA program, a collaboration funded by NOAA through the RAND Corporation and researchers at Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Morgan State University, and Carnegie Mellon University. This series is specifically designed to support policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic by serving as a data and information resource that is tailored to the region. It draws information from regional climate centers, news and weather information, and regional-specific climate data sets. Projections of weather and climate variability and change in the Mid-Atlantic region come from the best available scientific information. For any questions or comments, please contact Krista Romita Grocholski at Krista_Romita_Grocholski@rand.org.

This edition of the MARISA Seasonal Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook was authored by Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND Corporation), Michelle E. Miro (RAND Corporation), Samantha Borisoff (Cornell University), Jessica Spaccio (Cornell University), Lena Easton-Calabria (RAND Corporation), and Arthur T. DeGaetano (Cornell University).

Citation: Romita Grocholski, Krista, Michelle E. Miro, Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Lena Easton-Calabria, and Arthur T. DeGaetano, Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Summer 2024. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024.

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Footnotes

  1. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8d870b299025433d8d5e69800d550c9a Return to text ⤴

  2. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/permonth_by_state/June.png Return to text ⤴

  3. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ Return to text ⤴

  4. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8d870b299025433d8d5e69800d550c9a Return to text ⤴

  5. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ Return to text ⤴

  6. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8d870b299025433d8d5e69800d550c9a Return to text ⤴

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