Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2022–2023

Highlights

• Most areas experienced temperatures 4-6 degrees F above normal. We have not seen seasonal temperatures this far above normal for any season since the start of the MARISA climate summary series in Summer/Fall 2018.
• The southern half of the region received less than 25 percent of normal winter season snowfall, with several sites hitting records for the least snowy winter on record.
• Under a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of days with minimum temperatures below 20 degrees F in the Mid-Atlantic region are projected to decrease to about 14 days/year by late century, compared to 43 days/year between 1991-2020.

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This summary focuses on weather and climate events in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and provides highlights from the greater Mid-Atlantic region for the winter 2022-2023 season. The winter season is defined as the months of December, January, and February. The MARISA region covers Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and the portions of New York and West Virginia that fall within the boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as shown in Figure 1 below. We refer to this region as the Mid-Atlantic region in the rest of the climate summary.

A map showing the Mid-Atlantic region.

Part 1: Significant Weather Events and Impacts

Winter Weather

The Chesapeake Bay watershed did not experience any significant winter weather events during this season, largely due to much warmer than normal temperatures. A discussion of these temperatures, and associated events is included in Part 2 below.

Severe Weather

On December 23 and 24, a rapidly-intensifying storm brought a mix of precipitation types, strong winds, and coastal flooding to the Eastern United States.¹ Arctic air quickly poured into the region behind the storm, causing temperatures to plummet over these two days.² High temperatures on December 24 ranged from the single digits in places such as central New York to the mid 20s in coastal Virginia, with multiple stations recording one of their 10 coldest high temperatures for the month of December.³ These stations included Binghamton, New York; Harrisburg and Williamsport, Pennsylvania; Salisbury, Maryland; Martinsburg, West Virginia; and Dulles Airport and Norfolk, Virginia.⁴

Many areas saw multiple types of precipitation during the storm. Totals included up to six inches of snow in central Pennsylvania and as much as 0.10 inches of ice in western Maryland, West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle, and northern Virginia.^5,6,7

Wind gusts ranged from 30 to 60 mph throughout the region, with gusts of up to 69 mph recorded near the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.⁸ Downed trees and power lines blocked roads, damaged houses and vehicles, and left hundreds of thousands of customers without power.^9,10 Wind chills were below 0 degrees Fahrenheit (F) across the watershed, falling as low as -43 degrees Fahrenheit (F) in western Maryland.^11,12 Several power companies asked customers to conserve energy as increased usage and intense weather strained grid capacity.^13,14

The strong winds caused water levels to rise rapidly along the eastern side of the Chesapeake Bay and in a few tidal tributaries, with several gauges reaching moderate to major flood stage.¹⁵ Floodwaters inundated roads and entered homes and businesses.¹⁶ The weather conditions during the storm made travel difficult, with road closures and cancelled or delayed flights occurring on some of the busiest travel days of the year.¹⁷

SOURCE: National Weather Service

Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor from December 6 showed an area of moderate drought on the southern end of the Delmarva Peninsula and abnormal dryness in parts of central and southern Virginia and southern and eastern Maryland.¹⁸ The January 3 Drought Monitor showed that wetter-than-normal conditions during December, particularly in the second half of the month, allowed drought and abnormal dryness to contract in Virginia and abnormal dryness to ease in Maryland.¹⁹ The main exception was southeastern Virginia, where abnormal dryness was introduced.²⁰

January was drier than normal in eastern West Virginia, Maryland, and much of Virginia, causing abnormal dryness to be introduced in these areas.²¹ The drier conditions also allowed moderate drought to persist on the Delmarva Peninsula.²²

During February, below-normal precipitation and lower-than-normal streamflow led to the expansion of abnormal dryness in eastern West Virginia, western/central Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania.²³ A small area of moderate drought persisted on the Virginia portion of the Delmarva Peninsula while abnormal dryness contracted in eastern and central Virginia.²⁴

Part 2: Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature

Figure 3 shows the winter 2022-2023 average temperature compared with the climate normal, which is defined as the average winter temperature from 1991 to 2020.²⁵ The figure shows that most areas experienced temperatures 4-6 degrees F above normal, with a few areas of the northern portion of the region experiencing temperatures greater than 6 degrees F above normal. Temperature departures over the last five seasons have typically fallen within 2 degrees F of normal. We have not seen seasonal temperatures this far above normal for any season since the start of the MARISA climate summary series in Summer/Fall 2018.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal temperature is based on the winter season's average temperature data from 1991–2020. Yellow, orange, and red indicate above-normal temperatures. Blue indicates below-normal temperatures. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departure from normal temperature is based on a station's normal temperature for winter compared with the same station's winter 2022-2023 average temperature. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Overall, the 2022-2023 winter season was the warmest winter on record for Dulles Airport, and Charlottesville, Virginia and among the top 10 warmest winters on record for 11 other sites (Table 1). Individual temperature-related events are further discussed in the Monthly rankings section below.

Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Charlottesville, VA	44.6	40.4	1
Dulles Airport, VA	41.3	36.0	1
Richmond, VA	45.2	40.4	2
Salisbury, MD	43.7	38.7	2
Scranton, PA	35.1	30.5	2
Williamsport, PA	35.5	30.2	2
Harrisburg, PA	38.2	33.3	3
Lynchburg, VA	43.5	37.9	3
Washington National, D.C.	44.0	39.7	3
Baltimore, MD	42.0	36.5	4
Binghamton, NY	30.0	25.0	4
Martinsburg, WV	38.6	34.5	6
Norfolk, VA	47.5	44.2	8

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Temperature Rankings

Multiple stations including Binghamton, New York; Harrisburg and Williamsport, Pennsylvania; Martinsburg, West Virginia; Salisbury, Maryland; and Dulles Airport and Norfolk, Virginia, recorded one of their ten coldest high temperature for the month of December on December 24.²⁶

In contrast, on January 4, Binghamton, New York recorded a low temperature of 52 degrees F, its third warmest low temperature for January.²⁷ This January was the warmest on record for Dulles Airport, Virginia, and ranked among the ten warmest Januarys for multiple stations (see Table 2).²⁸

February continued the warming trend. Baltimore and Salisbury, Maryland and Lynchburg, Virginia experienced their warmest February on record and seven other sites had February temperatures that ranked in their top five on record (Table 2).

Despite the generally warm month, on February 3 and 4, arctic air, accompanied by gusty winds, briefly moved through the watershed. Low temperatures dropped into the single digits or below 0 degrees F in multiple locations, particularly parts of eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, central Pennsylvania, and central New York.²⁹ These low temperatures, combined with wind gusts of 20 to 50 mph, resulted in wind chills below 0 degrees F in multiple locations.³⁰ On February 4, Binghamton, New York recorded a low of -13 degrees F, which was 28 degrees F colder than normal and ranked among the site's 10 coldest temperatures for the month of February.³¹ On top of that, windy conditions brought the wind chill down to -33 degrees F.³²

Conditions warmed up quickly on February 5, with afternoon temperatures running 20 to 35 degrees higher than the previous day.³³

These warmer conditions continued, with high temperatures on February 15 hitting the 60s and 70s in many areas, even ranking among the 10 warmest high temperatures for February at Williamsport, Pennsylvania and Binghamton, New York.³⁴

On February 23, a front slowly crossed the watershed, causing some areas, especially Maryland and Virginia, to experience record or near-record warm temperatures.³⁵ For example, Richmond and Dulles Airport, Virginia reached 81 and 80 degrees F respectively, their warmest high temperatures on record for winter.³⁶

December Temperature Records
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank
No sites experienced temperatures that ranked in their top 20 warmest or coolest Decembers on record.

January Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Dulles Airport, VA	42.3	33.9	1
Binghamton, NY	31.4	22.5	2
Williamsport, PA	37.5	27.7	2
Charlottesville, VA	45.4	38.4	3
Harrisburg, PA	39.7	30.8	3
Washington National, D.C.	45.2	37.5	3
Baltimore, MD	43.9	34.3	4
Salisbury, MD	44.7	36.8	4
Scranton, PA	35.9	28.0	4
Richmond, VA	46.2	38.2	5
Martinsburg, WV	40.0	32.4	7
Lynchburg, VA	43.7	35.9	9
Norfolk, VA	47.8	42.2	11

February Temperature Records (warmest)
Station Name	Avg. Temp (degrees F)	Normal Temp (degrees F)	Rank (warmest)
Baltimore, MD	44.7	36.6	1
Lynchburg, VA	48.6	38.8	1
Salisbury, MD	46.4	38.7	1
Charlottesville, VA	48.5	41.4	2
Dulles Airport, VA	44.6	36.4	2
Harrisburg, PA	40.8	33.4	2
Richmond, VA	48.8	41.0	2
Scranton, PA	36.4	30.3	3
Martinsburg, WV	41.1	35.0	4
Norfolk, VA	50.8	44.2	4
Binghamton, NY	30.6	24.5	7

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Precipitation

Figure 4 shows how the total precipitation for December 1, 2022 through February 28, 2023 differed from normal, with normal being defined as the average winter precipitation from 1991 – 2020. The southern parts of the watershed received 75-125 percent of normal precipitation, while the northern portions received 125-150 percent of normal precipitation. A few areas in western Virginia and in West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle were drier, receiving 50-75 percent of normal precipitation. Central New York was wetter, at 150-200 percent of normal.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2022 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal precipitation is based on precipitation data from 1991–2020. Brown shades indicate below normal seasonal precipitation. Green shades indicate above normal seasonal precipitation. The boundaries of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are outlined in bold black. Average departures from normal precipitation are based on a station's normal precipitation for winter compared with the same station's winter 2022-2023 average amount of precipitation. Station-level departures from normal are spatially interpolated across the region. Both are produced by the Northeast Regional Climate Center. These can be found at https://www.rcc-acis.org/docs_gridded.html.

Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (wettest)
No sites experienced winter season precipitation amounts that rated within their top 10 driest or wettest on record.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Monthly Precipitation Rankings

December ranked among the 20 wettest Decembers on record for five sites. Dulles Airport, Virginia received 2.14 inches of precipitation on December 22, tying as the site's fourth wettest December day on record.³⁷ However, in January, only Binghamton, New York received enough precipitation to rank in the top 20 wettest on record, while six other sites experienced top 20 ranking driest Januarys. February ranked among the top 20 driest on record for three sites in the region.

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of precipitation are shown in Table 4.

December Precipitation Records (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked in their top 20 driest Decembers on record.

December Precipitation Records (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Lynchburg, VA	5.68	3.50	9
Williamsport, PA	5.15	3.27	10
Dulles Airport, VA	4.95	3.30	13
Binghamton, NY	3.83	3.08	14
Salisbury, MD	4.80	3.59	20

January Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
Dulles Airport, VA	1.36	2.94	7
Martinsburg, WV	1.19	2.60	13
Baltimore, MD	1.68	3.08	18
Washington National, D.C.	1.65	2.86	18
Charlottesville, VA	1.64	2.96	19
Salisbury, MD	2.28	3.51	19

January Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (wettest)
Binghamton, NY	3.37	2.62	13

February Precipitation Rankings (driest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (driest)
Harrisburg, PA	0.93	2.59	8
Scranton, PA	1.08	2.07	13
Salisbury, MD	1.52	3025	15

February Precipitation Rankings (wettest)
Station Name	Precipitation (inches)	Normal Precipitation (inches)	Rank (wettest)
No sites experienced precipitation that ranked in their top 20 wettest Februarys on record.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

For the Winter 2022-2023 season, the entire region received less snow than normal, with the southern half of the region getting less than 25 percent of normal snowfall. This is the first winter season with the entire watershed seeing below-normal snowfall since the MARISA climate summary series began in 2018.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

NOTE: Normal seasonal snowfall is based on snowfall data from 1991–2020. Browns indicate below-average seasonal snowfall, and greens indicate above-normal seasonal snowfall. Percentages of normal seasonal snowfall are based on station-specific normal seasonal snowfall for the winter compared to the same station's winter 2022–2023 seasonal snowfall. Station-level percentages of normal are then spatially interpolated to form the figure above.

This winter was the least snowy on record for Baltimore, and Salisbury, Maryland and Richmond Virginia. It was also among the top 10 least snowy winter seasons on record for five other sites (Table 5).

Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Baltimore, MD	0.2	16.4	1
Richmond, VA	T	7.7	1
Salisbury, MD	T	6.8	1
Dulles Airport, VA	0.4	16.7	2
Norfolk, VA	T	5.8	2 *tied w/ 11 other years
Lynchburg, VA	0.3	9.1	3
Washington National, D.C.	0.4	11.6	4
Harrisburg, PA	5.9	22.9	6
Williamsport, PA	11.5	25.9	11
Scranton, PA	14.1	30.3	13
Binghamton, NY	40.9	58.4	15

Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (snowiest)
No sites experienced snowfall that ranked in their top 20 snowiest winters on record.

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

There was no measurable snow during the month of January at several sites, including Dulles Airport and Norfolk, Virginia, tying multiple other years as the least snowy January on record at these sites.³⁸ This January was among the ten least snowy Januarys on record for a total of seven sites.³⁹ Baltimore, Maryland; Dulles Airport, Virginia; and Washington D.C.; did not see their first measurable snow until February 1, the latest date on record at Dulles Airport and among the fifth latest for Baltimore and Washington, D.C.⁴⁰ Harrisburg, Pennsylvania tied its least snowy February on record, and it was among the top 20 least snowy on record for seven other sites.

The full set of monthly rankings, locations, and amounts of snowfall are shown in Table 6.

December Snowfall Records
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Norfolk, VA	0.0	1.1	1 *(tied w/ 30 other years)
Richmond, VA	0.0	1.8	1 *(tied w/ 18 other years)
Baltimore, MD	Trace	2.5	5 *(tied w/ 20 other years)
Dulles Airport, VA	Trace	2.8	5 *(tied w/ 15 other years)
Washington National, D.C.	Trace	1.7	10 *(ties w/ 25 other years)
Salisbury, MD	Trace	0.9	11 *(tied w/ 39 other years)
Lynchburg, VA	Trace	2.0	20 *(tied w/ 29 other years)

January Snowfall Rankings (snowiest)
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (snowiest)
No sites received snowfall that ranked in the top 20 snowiest Januarys on record.

January Snowfall Rankings (least snowy)
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Baltimore, MD	Trace	6.4	1 *(tied w/ 6 other years)
Dulles Airport, VA	Trace	6.9	1 *(tied w/ 3 other years)
Norfolk, VA	0.0	3.2	1 *(tied w/ 11 other years)
Washington National, D.C.	Trace	4.9	1 *(tied w/ 14 other years)
Richmond, VA	Trace	3.7	4 *(tied w/ 23 other years)
Salisbury, MD	Trace	2.5	4 *(tied w/ 25 other years)
Scranton, PA	2.5	11.7	10
Williamsport, PA	1.6	9.7	13
Binghamton, NY	11.8	20.6	15

February Snowfall Rankings (least snowy)
Station Name	Snowfall (inches)	Normal Snowfall (inches)	Rank (least snowy)
Harrisburg, PA	Trace	9.4	1
Binghamton, NY	8.7	19.7	7
Salisbury, MD	Trace	3.4	7 *(tied w/ 18 other years)
Richmond, VA	Trace	2.2	11 *(tied w/ 24 other years)
Dulles Airport, VA	0.4	7.0	14
Norfolk, VA	Trace	1.5	17 *(tied w/ 30 other years)
Williamsport, PA	3.2	9.3	19
Baltimore, MD	0.2	7.5	20

SOURCE: Northeast Regional Climate Center, 2023 (https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu). Used with permission.

Part 3: Spring 2023 Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation

As of February 16, 2023 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 33-40-percent chance of above normal temperatures for the northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and a 40-50 percent change of above normal temperatures for the southern portions of the region for March through May 2023.⁴¹ This indicates that the forecast is leaning towards having a warmer than normal spring season.⁴² The precipitation forecast shows an 33-40 percent chance of wetter than normal conditions for the southern parts of the region for the same period. Much of Western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the westernmost portion of Maryland have a 40-50 percent chance of a wetter than normal spring season.⁴³

Drought Incidence

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies how drought might change across the United States and categorizes areas by whether drought could develop or become more or less intense. As of February 28, 2023 the Outlook indicates that drought conditions are not expected in the Mid-Atlantic region in the 2023 spring season.⁴⁴

Climate Circulation Patterns

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the likelihood of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, reported that La Niña has ended as of March 9, 2023 and expects ENSO-neutral conditions to continue during the spring and early summer.⁴⁵

ENSO conditions are one of the factors taken into account in NOAA's long-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks such as the one included in this climate summary.⁴⁶ However, other regional climate dynamics and natural climate variability also influence weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Additional information on La Niña and El Niño is available from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (La Niña, El Niño).

Part 4: Average Annual Number of Days with Cold Low Temperatures

Similar to earlier climate summaries that focused on extreme heat, cold low temperatures are also projected to warm over time. Warmer winter lows can lead to fewer freezes, contributing to the incidence of earlier springtime weather and impacting agriculture. Warmer temperatures can provide more flexibility for crops by increasing the growing season but can also decrease crop yields by accelerating the rate of crop development. During warmer winter and spring seasons, crops are more vulnerable to late season freezes, as plants may be out of their dormant periods when these events occur. For cities, fewer freeze-thaw cycles could decrease road maintenance costs.